2025 NFL Draft Projections: Latest mock drafts reveal surprising shifts in expected draft ranges for all top prospects

Before jumping into all the top players in the graphic above, here are a few quick helpful notes if you care about the why, what, and how of this all.

- The "early" projection for each player is probably near their ceiling, but they could certainly be selected before that mark (especially QBs who are often reached for significantly).
- The "median" is in many cases quite different from the players' overall rank, especially after pick 22. This speaks to the lack of certainty and confidence in any one player being selected that begins to emerge after the elite prospects are off the board. The "safe" first round projections end around pick 22.
- Just like the "early" projection, the "late" mark is somewhere near the floor for a prospect to be selected, but we obviously don't have all the pre-draft information (like medical issues) just yet that might have a detrimental impact on a player's draft odds.
- These probability distributions aren't perfect, but likely account for about 95% of possible outcomes for each player given what we know today. A couple nerdy statistical curve-fitting and distribution-building methods were used to get these as accurate as we can this early in the pre-draft process.

Alright, enough of the nerdy explanations. Without further ado, let's try and predict the 2025 NFL Draft future and talk through where the Top 64 prospects could be selected.

Safe First Round Projections

1. Cam Ward, QB Miami - Early 1, Median 2, Late 11
2. Shedeur Sanders, QB Colorado - Early 1, Median 2, Late 12
3. Travis Hunter, CB/WR - Early 1, Median 3, Late 12
4. Abdul Carter, EDGE Penn State - Early 2, Median 4, Late 15
5. Mason Graham, DT Michigan - Early 3, Median 5, Late 16
6. Will Johnson, CB Michigan - Early 3, Median 5, Late 16
7. Tetairoa McMillan, WR Arizona - Early 4, Median 8, Late 19
8. Kelvin Banks Jr., OT Texas - Early 5, Median 10, Late 22
9. James Pearce Jr., EDGE Tennessee - Early 5, Median 10, Late 23
10. Will Campbell - Early 5, Median 11, Late 23
11. Luther Burden, WR Missouri - Early 5, Median 11, Late 24
12. Ashton Jeanty, RB Boise State - Early 6, Median 14, Late 27
13. Malaki Starks, S Georgia - Early 6, Median 14, Late 27
14. Mykel Williams, EDGE Georgia - Early 6, Median 15, Late 29
15. Nic Scourton, EDGE Texas A&M - Early 6, Median 15, Late 29

These top prospects have their entire projected 2025 NFL Draft expected selection range living within the first 32 picks. Sure, one might somehow sneak out of round one, but it's highly unlikely.

The main shift in this top elite tier of players happened within the first three picks overall. Back in December there was a real shot that Travis Hunter could be the first pick int he 2025 NFL Draft depending which team landed in the one slot. However, since the draft order solidified with the Titans and Browns both needing a quarterback at picks one and two, Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders have passed him up by default in most recent data. Despite Hunter being perhaps the "best player in the draft" as a two-way wide receiver and cornerback threat, he's been slipping down mock draft boards a bit lately, even versus some of the others in this tier.

There has been quite a bit less consensus overall in this Top 15 picks throughout January. Part of this has likely emerged due to the mixed views on Shedeur Sanders around the league (this confirmed via several NFL scout and staff sources). If Sanders isn't considered a top option at two then the whole draft board could shift. Amid the second-guessing at the top Abdul Carter (EDGE, Penn State), Mason Graham (DT, Michigan), and Will Johnson (CB, Michigan) have further solidified their top tier status.

Ashton Jeanty, the running back who nearly broke Barry Sanders' college football rushing record, has continued a slow climb upwards as a potential candidate to go as early as sixth overall to the Raiders. Meanwhile, clear disagreements on who the second, third, and fourth edge rushers in the class should be have led to James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee), Mykel Williams (Georgia), and Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) all fluttering towards the end of this "elite" prospect group.

Very Likely First Round Projections

16. Jalon Walker, LB Georgia - Early 7, Median 18, Late 33
17. Tyler Warren, TE Penn State - Early 7, Median 19, Late 34
18. Shavon Revel Jr., CB East Carolina - Early 7, Median 19, Late 34
19. Emeka Egbuka, WR Ohio State - Early 7, Median 20, Late 36
20. Colston Loveland, TE Michigan - Early 8, Median 22, Late 38
21. Kenneth Grant, DT Michigan - Early 9, Median 24, Late 42
22. Tyler Booker, IOL Alabama - Early 10, Median 25, Late 42

This group is full of extremely talented NFL Draft prospects, but in many cases their precise fit, injuries, or premium typically invested in their position is holding them back from the first tier.

Jalon Walker is a do-it-all linebacker who can play off the ball or rush the passer, but there will be questions on his exact role given certain deficiencies when trying to play edge rusher or off-the-ball exclusively.

Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland both easily have "first round" profiles given their explosions of production this past year (especially when adjusting for the scale of their passing offenses). Both could be top ten picks, but given positional needs of teams selecting in the early first that likely does not happen.

Kenneth Grant has been continuing to rise as the clear DT2 in the 2025 NFL Draft class, but has some questionable pass rush impact throughout his profile.

Tyler Booker is slowly falling a bit as other offensive line prospects have been rising behind him in recent weeks, but his traits and safe projection as the top overall true offensive guard in the class likely anchor him somewhere around this spot in the NFL Draft. Perhaps he goes somewhere in the late first, but it would be odd for him to drop out entirely.

Fringe First Round Projections

23. Josh Simmons, OT Ohio State: Early 11, Median 27, Late 45
24. Shemar Stewart, EDGE Texas A&M: Early 13, Median 30, Late 49
25. Princely Umanmielen, EDGE Ole Miss: Early 15, Median 32, Late 52
26. Aireonte Ersery, OT Minnesota: Early 16, Median 34, Late 54
27. Derrick Harmon: Early 16, Median 34, Late 55
28. Jonah Savaiinaea, OT Arizona: Early 18, Median 36, Late 56
29. Walter Nolen - Early 19, Median 38, Late 59
30. Benjamin Morrison - Early 20, Median 39, Late 60
31. Jalen Milroe - Early 20, Median 39, Late 61

This range is where the official big boards for most NFL teams begin to diverge in most years and this class looks like it will be no exception. This group has a ton of solid prospects, but in many cases they have one or two glaring issues that may end up pushing them out of the first round.

However, it seems Josh Simmons and Shemar Stewart are trending towards joining the tier above this one. Simmons, despite his midseason injury, apparently dominated well enough that he's in the conversation for some as the best offensive tackle in the class. Stewart's raw traits are apparently just too much to ignore for many scouts as well, despite the pass rush rate stat inconsistencies.

Both Aireonte Ersery and Jonah Savaiinaea have a year or two of pretty rough tape mixed in with their best that puts their profiles closer to most day two tackles, but the positional premium keeps pushing them into the first round.

Derrick Harmon and Walter Nolen's paths are beginning to converge as many realize how poorly Harmon tackled this past season despite his lofty pressure numbers. Nolen likely passes Harmon for many, but character concerns (unfortunately details not shared extensively on this) may hold the former Ole Miss star back.

If any player in this tier drops much further from this group it will be Jalen Milroe. There's been buzz about his Senior Bowl and Combine meetings coming up with a few NFL teams, but his lack of consistency and accuracy outside of some fun deep shots give him a fairly confusing prospect profile.

Safe First or Second Round Prospects

32. Isaiah Bond, WR Texas - Early 23, Median 43, Late 67
33. Tyleik Williams, DT Ohio State - Early 23, Median 43, Late 67
34. Jahdae Barron, CB Texas - Early 25, Median 46, Late 70
35. Cameron Williams, OT Texas - Early 26, Median 47, Late 71
36. Wyatt Milum, OT West Virginia - Early 26, Median 47, Late 72
37. Josh Conerly Jr., OT Oregon - Early 27, Median 48, Late 73
38. Landon Jackson, EDGE Arkansas - Early 27, Median 48, Late 73
39. Tre Harris, WR Ole Miss - Early 28, Median 49, Late 74
40. Deone Walker, DT Kentucky - Early 29, Median 50, Late 76
41. Nick Emmanwori, S South Carolina - Early 30, Median 52, Late 78
42. Maxwell Hairston, CB Kentucky - Early 30, Median 53, Late 79
43. Mike Green, EDGE Marshall - Early 31, Median 53, Late 80
44. Jihaad Campbell, LB Alabama - Early 32, Median 55, Late 83

The obvious outlier here to those paying close attention to individual prospect stocks this time of year is Texas WR Isaiah Bond. He had been considered a Top 5 WR in the 2025 NFL Draft class prior to this past season, and started hot for a few games. However, his late injuries and struggles even when healthy likely push him downwards significantly in the coming weeks. His slide has already begun.

Every other player in this group isn't perfect, but most of them have been pushing closer to first round consideration in multiple round mock drafts.

Josh Conerly Jr. (OT, Oregon) and Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas) have been rising quicker than any other prospects in this tier as the masses realize how special their final seasons were. Barron was a shutdown corner who could play any position in the secondary. Conerly was nearly perfect in pass protection all year.

Mike Green and Landon Jackson may switch rankings here soon as their average draft positions have been converging for weeks. Green tallied over 15 sacks last year for Marshall and should turn heads on the all star circuit and at the NFL Combine.

Tre Harris is surging towards becoming the standalone WR5 behind Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden, and Emeka Egbuka. Jihaad Campbell is looking like the only linebacker who could climb up and challenge Georgia's Jalon Walker for the top spot at his position.

Best of the Rest 2025 NFL Prospects

45. Emery Jones Jr., OL LSU - Early 36, Median 60, Late 89
46. Marcus Mbow, OL Purdue - Early 37, Median 61, Late 90
47. Jaxson Dart, QB Ole Miss - Early 37, Median 62, Late 92
48. Azareye'h Thomas, CB Florida State - Early 38, Median 63, Late 93
49. Kaleb Johnson, RB Iowa - Early 39, Median 64, Late 94
50. Elic Ayomanor, WR Stanford - Early 39, Median 64, Late 95
51. T.J. Sanders, DT South Carolina - Early 40, Median 66, Late 96
52. Kyle Kennard, EDGE South Carolina - Early 40, Median 66, Late 97
53. Tate Ratledge, IOL Georgia - Early 51, Median 77, Late 104
54. Trey Amos, CB Ole Miss - Early 51, Median 78, Late 105
55. Denzel Burke, CB Ohio State - Early 51, Median 78, Late 105
56. Donovan Jackson, IOL Ohio State - Early 52, Median 79, Late 105
57. Xavier Watts, S Notre Dame - Early 53, Median 80, Late 107
58. Armand Membou, OL Missouri - Early 54, Median 81, Late 108
59. Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE Boston College - Early 54, Median 81, Late 108
60. Omarion Hampton, RB North Carolina - Early 54, Median 82, Late 109
61. Jack Sawyer, EDGE Ohio State - Early 55, Median 82, Late 109
62. Harold Fannin Jr, TE Bowling Green - Early 56, Median 84, Late 112
63. J.T. Tuimoloau, EDGE Ohio State - Early 56, Median 84, Late 112
64. Bradyn Swinson, EDGE LSU - Early 56, Median 84, Late 112

The best data scientists and experts who try to predict NFL Draft outcomes (some on staff with NFL teams) generally can successfully project just over 90% of the "players selected by pick 'x'" through the 40th overall range in most years, but things get tricky from there. This class looks it's par for the course in terms of wild volatility introduced shortly after pick 40, with perhaps a slightly slower drift into uncertainty.

The spread between "early" and "late" selections spans as wide as 62 picks by the end of the second round here because there is a massive group of prospects rated similarly just outside this range.

Jaxson Dart (QB, Ole Miss), Armand Membou (OL Missouri), Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, Bowling Green), and Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU) continue to rise. Once the all star games and NFL Combine wrap up all could be in Top 40 consideration, if not the first round given how things have been trending.

Conversely, Emery Jones Jr. (OT, LSU), Denzel Burke (CB, Ohio State), and Tate Ratledge (IOL, Georgia) continue to stall or drop slightly among this group. Jones Jr. and Burke were certainly anything but perfect this last season but have all the traits. Ratledge is the total package though from a leadership, physicality, and blocking success rate standpoint. He'll be one to closely monitor as teams may target him as the second highest rated interior lineman in the class.

We'll be back with more NFL Draft coverage here at A to Z Sports all year long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!