The Baylor Bears have bounced back from their opening week loss with back-to-back wins over the SMU Mustangs and Samford Bulldogs. This week, they'll kick off Big 12 play with a home showdown against the Arizona State Sun Devils, who won the Big 12 and made the College Football Playoffs a year ago.
Last year, the Bears went 6-3 and just missed out on the Big 12 championship game all because they started 0-3 in conference play. It's very important for the Bears to get off to a hot start this year so they can control their own destiny moving forward.
Here are three things Baylor must do if they want to beat Arizona State this weekend.
Baylor's defense has been awful this season, more specifically against the run. They've given up 235 rushing yards per game, which ranks 124th out of 136 teams in the country. They're also giving up 4.9 yards per carry, which ranks 99th in the country.
This week, they face an Arizona State team that averages over six yards per carry, and their lead back, Raleek Brown, averages 8.3 yards on 35 carries. He's rushed for 292 yards and two scores in three games this year, and if the Bears defense doesn't find a way to slow him down, it's going to be an extremely long day for Dave Aranda's unit.
In the first two games of the season, Sawyer Robertson struggled to get going out of the gates before finding his rhythm late in the first quarter. Last week, he did a good job of starting fast, but struggled a bit in the second half against Samford.
It's going to be very important for Robertson to come out firing against the Sun Devils. Arizona State is going to score points with Sam Leavitt under center, and the Bears' defense hasn't proven they can stop much of anything. If Baylor falls behind early, it's going to be extremely hard to mount a comeback. But if Robertson can come out firing and keep up with the Sun Devils, I'd feel a lot better about Baylor's chances.
I don't think forcing punts or turnovers is the most important thing in this game. Arizona State is going to drive the ball; that's inevitable. What it's really going to come down to is how many times Baylor can keep ASU out of the end zone and force field goals.
Through three games, Baylor's opponents are scoring touchdowns on 83.3% of their red zone possessions. They can not afford to let the Sun Devils continuously convert long drives into six points. If they can stall a couple of ASU's drives and force them to kick field goals instead of scoring touchdowns, it will go a long way towards helping them win this game.
More must-reads:
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!