ACC Championship: Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals betting picks, preview

This game is going at the same time as the Big Ten Championship. I am not sure which is more interesting. If Florida State can win somewhat convincingly, they are probably in, but there is a real chance they win and still fail to make the playoff cut. Louisville had an outside shot at the playoffs before they lost to Kentucky to close the regular season. Now they are purely in spoiler mode. 

Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals Betting Trends and Odds   

Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023 — 8 p.m. ET
Odds: Florida State -2.5, Over/under 47.5, Florida State -142 | Louisville +120

The Seminoles could really use an emphatic victory, but that is not what is being predicted. These teams used to meet every season but they missed each other this year with the new scheduling rules in the league. This is one of the hardest games to handicap this weekend because we still don't really know what Florida State is without their quarterback. 

Pick for Florida State vs. Louisville

Florida State -2.5

I thought I was going to be all in on Louisville for this game, but I am having a hard time getting there just because Florida State is using their backup quarterback. Louisville's offense has struggled outside of their home stadium this season and this is not a home game. The pressure might be off the Cardinals because of the loss last week took them out of the running for a playoff spot, even with a win, but I do not want to lean into that too much. This is a quality FSU team that has not given up more than 20 points in a game since September. A strong defensive effort means they do not have to force the issue when they have the ball. With a small number to cover, a win likely gets us that too. This game could easily be something like 20-17. 

When you have a -2.5, it does not take a ton to get to -3. Even just some strong interest in the market can make that happen. With the whole day to get there, it could happen. A -2 is basically the same bet, so I am not worried about that. You can bet this now if you like.