Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Advanced Analytics Predict USC vs. TCU Alamo Bowl

Originally posted on USC Trojans on SI | By Cory Pappas | Last updated Dec 28, 2025 8:00 PM ET

The USC Trojans are taking on the TCU Horned Frogs in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 30. Kickoff is scheduled for 6 p.m. PT and will be broadcast on ESPN. USC is seeking their 10th win of the season, which would be the first time they would achieve this feat since the 2022 season, Lincoln Riley’s first as USC coach.

What do the analytics says about this matchup?

USC vs. TCU FPI Prediction, Preview

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ESPN’s Football Power Index gives USC a 69.8 percent chance to defeat TCU. The Trojans are the fourth highest ranked team in the Big Ten with an FPI rating of 18.7. The three teams in the Big Ten ahead of them are the Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Oregon Ducks.

The Horned Frogs are the tied for being the fifth highest ranked team in the Big 12 with the Iowa State Cyclones with an FPI rating of 8.8. The four teams ahead are the Texas Tech Tech Raiders, Utah Utes, and the BYU Cougars.

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The Trojans come into this game with a record of 9-3. Their last outing was a rivalry win over the UCLA Bruins. They have been led by quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has thrown for 3,431 yards and 23 touchdowns. USC will be getting a nice boost next season as Maiava re-signed to return in 2026.

USC will be down their top two weapons from the 2025 season in wide receivers’ Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. Lemon and Lane declared for the 2026 NFL Draft and will not be suiting up for the Alamo Bowl.

TCU finished the 2025 regular season with a record of 8-4. The Horned Frogs offense was engineered by quarterback Josh Hoover, who threw for 3,472 yards and 29 touchdowns. However, Hoover entered the portal following the conclusion of the regular season.

USC vs. TCU Betting Odds

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USC is a 6.5-point favorite over TCU according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Trojans have odds of -238 to win outright while the Horned Frogs are at +195. The current over/under is at 55.5 points.

Score Prediction

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Despite not having Lemon or Lane, the USC offense still has an abundance of weapons that will be on the field in the Alamo Bowl. Expect a big game out of USC freshman wide recevier Tanook Hines, who had 398 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season.

The Horned Frogs offense should be able to move the ball up and down the field. This game has the makings of being a high scoring affair. The Trojans will win in a shootout and cover the spread.

USC 38, TCU 30