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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida State Seminoles football game prediction 2025: Who wins, and why? Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida State Seminoles prediction: Who wins, and why?

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By James Parks | Last updated Aug 28, 2025 1:51 PM ET

Alabama and Florida State square off in this marquee Week 1 college football season opener on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for in the SEC vs. ACC matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Winning nine games may sound like a dream for scores of college football teams, but at Alabama it’s a cause for grave concern, and Kalen DeBoer is under some pressure to get back to double-digits and playoff contention in his second season as head coach.

That cause faces an uphill battle after the offense saw the departure of quarterback Jalen Milroe, a dual-threat playmaker who added another dimension to the offense we may not see from Ty Simpson, the Crimson Tide’s new starter under center.

“They don’t have Nick Saban to save them,” said new Florida State quarterback Thomas Castellanos in some explosive comments this offseason, remarks he tripled down on since making them, and which he’ll have to live up to on the field this weekend.

Castellanos takes the helm on a Seminoles team that endured a shocking 2-10 identity crisis last season despite being the defending ACC champions at the time.

That put head coach Mike Norvell on, if not the hot seat, then something comparable, and under tremendous pressure to right the ship and prove that last season was the exception to his tenure, and not the new rule.

What can we expect as the Crimson Tide visit the Seminoles this weekend?

Here’s what you should watch for as Alabama and Florida State meet in this Week 1 college football matchup, with our updated On SI prediction for the game.

Alabama vs. Florida State prediction: What to watch for

Melina Myers-Imagn Images

1. Containing Castellanos

Florida State’s new transfer quarterback will pose a credible threat to any group of tacklers looking to prevent him from peeling off downfield runs, or at least scurrying around the pocket and extending plays or picking up moderate gains on the ground.

Alabama’s front seven returns enough personnel and firepower to challenge the Seminoles’ elusive quarterback, but needs especially to close down any potential running lanes that might emerge on the outside of the formation and turn that pressure into sacks and negative plays to definitively shorten Florida State’s drives.

Castellanos’ offseason comments should certainly provide the Crimson Tide’s front line tacklers with plenty of motivation, and we’re not yet sold on the quality of the Seminoles’ blockers to stand up to what should be consistent pressure.

2. Going deep on the Tide

Castellanos is not the only threat to Alabama’s defense. Other key transfers like wide receivers Duce Robinson and Squirrel White should provide a critical downfield dimension to an offense that was 116th nationally in passing output.

Gus Malzahn, a familiar face for Alabama, steps in to pilot the Seminoles’ offense, and he wants to design plays that get much more aggressive moving the ball vertically and stretching the field while capitalizing on Castellanos’ mobility.

That could prove a tough task against an Alabama secondary rotation that brings back six players with starting experience from a unit that ranked top 20 nationally defending against the pass and improved its standing in the transfer portal.

3. On the ground

Alabama’s rushing attack could prove the team’s biggest relative weakness coming into the season after presumptive starter Jam Miller injured his collarbone in practice, resulting in what will likely be a three-game absence for the tailback.

Even with Miller in the rotation, there were legitimate questions about the explosiveness and consistency of the Tide’s ground operation. Now, others like Richard Young and Daniel Hill will get a chance to prove themselves in his place.

Florida State’s linebacker group looks solid and this overall unit, under the direction of new coordinator Tony White should be relatively strong against the run, which could prove a critical advantage on the Seminoles’ side of the ledger.

Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

What the analytics say

Most analytical football models are siding with the Crimson Tide on the road against the Seminoles in this non-conference opener.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Alabama is a heavy favorite against Florida State by that metric, coming out ahead in the strong majority 90.6 percent of the computer’s latest simulations of the game.

That leaves the Seminoles as the projected winner in the remaining 9.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama is projected to be 17.1 points better than Florida State on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite against Florida State, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -630 and for Florida State at +450 to win outright.

A plurality of bettors are siding with the Crimson Tide over the Seminoles, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Alabama is getting 65 percent of bets to win the game by at least two touchdowns and cover the generous point spread.

The other 35 percent of wagers project Florida State will either defeat the Crimson Tide outright in an upset, or more likely, keep the margin under 2 TDs in a loss.

Alabama vs. Florida State prediction: Who wins?

Butch Dill-Imagn Images

Ty Simpson remains a big question mark for Alabama. The quarterback was a former five-star recruit and has waited for his chance, but this will be his first real exposure.

Luckily for him, the Tide returns one of college football’s more dominant and experienced offensive lines and a wide receiver rotation that can stretch this field and put several targets in position simultaneously.

Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Miami transfer Isaiah Horton form a very promising trio to help Simpson find his way, stack up some after the catch yardage, and compensate for the relative lack of a consistent ground game to help Alabama build an early lead.

Castellanos will provide a little razzle-dazzle to this Florida State offense to give the faithful enough confidence to think this season won’t be another dud, but the Tide have more firepower and will pull away in the second half.

College Football HQ picks ...