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Alabama vs. LSU prediction: Who wins, and why?

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By James Parks | Last updated Nov 8, 2025 7:33 AM ET

LSU is in crisis, and Alabama is on a winning streak in the midst of the College Football Playoff race as we near the final stretch of the 2025 regular season.

Two grand old blue-bloods of the SEC renew their rivalry on Saturday night, as the Tigers take their first step without Brian Kelly on the sideline and the Crimson Tide look to make another giant leap forward towards the SEC Championship Game.

Alabama has won 84 straight home games against unranked teams, but LSU is unlike most ranked teams, still boasting a roster of blue-chip playmakers all over the field who can make a difference.

Alabama vs. LSU: What to watch for

Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

1. LSU's Protection and Run Game

LSU's offensive line has struggled for much of the season, impacting both pass protection and their ability to establish the run.

Interim head coach Frank Wilson has emphasized the need for a stronger rushing attack, shifting to a more downhill style and leaning on freshman running back Harlem Berry, but LSU still ranks near the bottom nationally in rushing success rate.

How well the line performs against Alabama’s formidable defensive front will directly affect quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s comfort and the team's ability to avoid negative plays.

2. Alabama vs. LSU's Secondary

Alabama boasts one of the most explosive passing offenses, with quarterback Ty Simpson connecting regularly with star receivers such as Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard.

LSU’s secondary, led by cornerback Mansoor Delane, will need to contain Alabama’s playmakers and prevent explosive gains.

What happens between Alabama’s receivers and LSU’s defensive backs could dictate whether Alabama can pull away or if LSU stays within striking distance.

3. QBs under pressure

Alabama’s pass rush will test Nussmeier’s poise; if the LSU offensive line crumbles, mistakes such as sacks or interceptions become more likely.

Simpson, while effective as a passer, is less mobile than some recent opponents LSU has faced.

If LSU can generate interior pressure and force quick decisions, Simpson’s ability to avoid mistakes and deliver in key moments could determine the Tide’s offensive rhythm.

What the bookies think

The betting markets are not convinced that LSU and its interim coach will have any answers for the streaking Crimson Tide in this matchup.

Alabama is a 10.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the most recent game lines posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -400 and for LSU at +315 to win outright.

Alabama vs. LSU prediction: Who wins?

Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

It’s tempting to look at a double-digit line and think LSU still has the firepower to make this close against the Crimson Tide, given all that talent that remains, even if Brian Kelly couldn’t get what he wanted out of it.

But certain persistent structural problems still persist for the Tigers. They aren’t great at protecting the quarterback and they can’t run the ball for much of anything.

Alabama isn’t stellar at running the football either, but has advantages when stretching the field, keeping the pocket clean, and generating a consistent-enough pass rush against an overmatched LSU line.

College Football HQ picks...