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Alabama vs. Michigan Prediction: College Football Playoff Rematch in Reliaquest Bowl

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Kyle Wood | Last updated Dec 31, 2024 1:00 AM ET

A lot has changed since Alabama and Michigan met in the Rose Bowl on the first day of 2024. Nick Saban retired, Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL and plenty of players on both sides of last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal are now also in the league.

Now, on the final day of 2024, these proud programs will meet once again in the ReliaQuest Bowl in hopes of capping off disappointing seasons on a high note.

No. 11 Alabama (9-3) narrowly missed out on a spot in the CFP in its first year under head coach Kalen DeBoer, who lost to Michigan in the national championship a year ago with Washington. Losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma ultimately doomed the Tide, but a win against the Wolverines would ensure a 17th consecutive 10-win season. The last time ’Bama didn’t win double-digit games was 2007, Saban’s first year in charge.

Michigan (7-5) lost a lot from its title-winning team, which resulted in its worst season since 2020. Even then, the Wolverines still beat rival Ohio State, 13-10, in the regular-season finale in Year 1 under head coach Sherrone Moore.

Transfer portal losses and NFL opt-outs left both teams shorthanded. Michigan’s departures in particular have swung the spread even further in Alabama’s favor, especially with Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe set to play.

How to watch Alabama vs. Michigan, game odds

Location: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, Dec. 31 at 12 p.m ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Alabama -15
Over/Under: 44.5
Announcers: Dave Flemming, Brock Osweiler, Stormy Buonantony

Why Alabama Will Win

The Tide will have more of their top talent available in this game than the Wolverines. Beyond Milroe, linebacker Jihaad Campbell and left guard Tyler Booker are both set to play. ’Bama will also have its two leading receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard against Michigan. Williams and Bernard account for more than half of the team’s total receiving yards, and they’ll be up against a secondary missing its top cornerback in Will Johnson.

The strength of the Wolverines’ defense is its front, headlined by All-American Mason Graham. However, he’s out for Tuesday’s game, along with defensive end Josiah Stewart and defensive lineman Kenneth Grant. That bodes well for Milroe, who led the team in rushing with over 700 yards and 20 touchdowns. Michigan was a tough team to run on this season because of all that talent along its defensive line. Down so many starters, Milroe and Jam Miller may impose their will.

The Wolverines’ offense isn’t what it was a season ago, and this unit will be without its leading rusher Kalel Mullings and top receiving threat in tight end Colston Loveland. Though Alabama won't have star safety Malachi Moore, it still has the pieces in place to slow down an extremely inefficient offense.

Why Michigan Will Win

The Wolverines did beat Ohio State last time out. However, many of the players who were integral in that effort — including Mullings and Graham — will not play in the ReliaQuest Bowl. That puts plenty of pressure on quarterback Davis Warren, who threw more interceptions (nine) than touchdowns (six) this season. Backup Alex Orji, who is in the transfer portal, is expected to play and could provide a spark with his rushing ability. Orji is the team’s top available rusher with 260 yards on the year.

Alabama does have a tendency to turn the ball over with 18 giveaways, 10 of which were Milroe interceptions. Michigan was not particularly opportunistic in that department, but it is an area on defense where the Wolverines could make some hay.

All-America kicker Dominic Zvada also has quite the leg, connecting on 17-of-18 attempts this season, including all seven attempts from 50-plus yards. That kind of range puts Michigan in scoring range well outside of the red zone.

Final Analysis

Like many games this time of year, this one ultimately comes down to availability. While Alabama is trotting out its potential first-round pick at quarterback, Michigan will be without its Round 1 talent. Few games this bowl season had spreads that ballooned as large as this one has. That shift, along with the lopsided opening line, aren’t without reason. The Wolverines won’t be able to keep up offensively with a Milroe-led Tide team.