American Athletic Conference Football 2025 Predictions

AAC Championship Game: Tulane over Navy

1. Tulane

First-year coach Jon Sumrall picked up where Willie Fritz left off, as Tulane played for the AAC title and finished with a 9-5 record. Despite returning only five starters, the Green Wave are primed for a fourth consecutive trip to the conference championship game and a run at the top spot among Group of 5 teams in ‘25.

Losing quarterback Darian Mensah as a transfer to Duke was a setback to Tulane’s offense, but Sumrall and coordinator Joe Craddock have three capable transfers - Kadin Semonza (Ball State), Donovan Leary (Illinois), and Brendan Sullivan (Iowa) vying for the starting job. A line needing three new starters was replenished through the portal, with transfer running back Maurice Turner (Louisville) poised for a breakout year with an opportunity to handle the full workload.

The Green Wave have finished first or second in the AAC in scoring defense in each of the last three years. Don’t expect that standard to change in ‘25. A loaded front behind UTEP transfer Maurice Westmoreland and Kameron Hamilton (4.5 sacks last year) will be a handful for opposing offensive lines. Linebacker Sam Howard is among the AAC’s top returning defenders. Reloading at cornerback is Sumrall’s biggest concern on this side of the ball.

2. Navy

The Midshipmen took a step forward in coach Brian Newberry’s second season with a 10-3 record and victories over Army and Air Force to claim the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. The Midshipmen capped the year by beating Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl for the program’s first postseason victory since ‘19. With a favorable schedule and a veteran roster, Navy has all of the pieces in place to win the AAC and contend for the top spot among Group of 5 programs.

Quarterback Blake Horvath is the catalyst for Navy’s hybrid Wing-T attack after finishing third in the AAC in rushing yards per game (103.8) and accounting for 30 overall touchdowns in ‘24. Three starters must be replaced up front, but the Midshipmen bring back nearly every major contributor at running back and receiver, including slotback Eli Heidenreich (6.8 yards a carry last year).

Nose guard Landon Robinson leads the way for a Navy defense returning four starters off a unit that limited opponents to 22.2 points a contest. The Midshipmen need to restock the secondary and lost key linebackers Colin Ramos and Kyle Jacob, but Newberry and coordinator P.J. Volker should find a way to keep this group near the top of the AAC.

3. South Florida

The Bulls had high expectations entering the 2024 season, but an early injury to quarterback Byrum Brown derailed coach Alex Golesh’s squad. Despite losing Brown, South Florida rallied to a 7-6 finish, giving the program back-to-back bowl trips for the first time since 2017-18.

With Brown back under center and at full strength, South Florida’s offense should rank among the best in the AAC. In addition to having a dynamic signal-caller like Brown, the Bulls return big-play target Keshaun Singleton at receiver and one of the conference’s top offensive lines. The top three running backs from ‘24 departed, but Charlotte transfer Cartevious Norton is a solid pickup from the portal.

How the defense performs likely determines whether or not South Florida challenges for the AAC crown. The Bulls allowed 29.8 points a contest and 5.8 yards a snap last year. Despite losing tackle Bernard Gooden to transfer in the spring, this unit still returns six starters, including standout linebackers Jhalyn Shuler and Mac Harris.

4. UTSA

After losing quarterback Frank Harris and several key defenders from a team that went 22-3 in conference play (CUSA and AAC) from 2021-23, it was no surprise UTSA needed a transition period last fall. Coach Jeff Traylor’s squad started 2-4 but rallied with five victories over the final seven games to finish with the program’s fifth straight winning season.

Although the Roadrunners have holes to fill, expect this team to return to contention for the AAC title. Quarterback Owen McCown’s play was a big reason why UTSA surged down the stretch, as the Texas native threw for 3,424 yards and 25 touchdowns in a breakout year. The Roadrunners should be among the top offenses at the Group of 5 level with McCown, a loaded receiving corps, and running back Robert Henry. An experienced offensive line should provide plenty of protection for McCown.

While the offense is stocked with experience and returning production, the outlook on defense is the opposite. UTSA returns zero starters and only two of the team’s top 14 tacklers are back. Linebackers Jimmori Robinson (17 TFL in ‘24) and Martavius French (17 TFL) will be missed. Power conference transfers Kendrick Blackshire (Alabama) and Shad Banks (TCU) bolster the linebacker unit, while concerns remain at cornerback exiting spring practice.

5. Army

Army’s debut in the AAC last season was a massive success. The Black Knights won 12 games and claimed the conference title after beating Tulane 35-14. Replicating that success won’t be easy in ‘25, but don’t count out coach Jeff Monken’s squad from factoring into the title mix.

Dewayne Coleman is expected to get the first shot at replacing quarterback Bryson Daily’s production (1,659 rushing yards and 32 touchdowns) under center. The return of Noah Short (569 yards) and Hayden Reed (207) gives Coleman two proven playmakers to lean on in the backfield. The Black Knights won the Joe Moore Award for the nation’s top offensive line last season, but this unit will be under construction with two returning starters.

Army’s defense led the AAC in fewest points a game allowed (15.5) and limited opponents to 5.2 yards a snap last fall. Coordinator Nate Woody returns a solid foundation but safety Max DiDomenico, lineman Kyle Lewis, and edge rusher Elo Modozie (transfer to Georgia) are big losses. Cornerback Jaydan Mayes’ decision to exit the portal after entering in the spring was a huge boost to the secondary. 

6. Memphis

Not much separates the top six in Athlon Sports’ preseason projections for the American Athletic Conference. Memphis is coming off its best two-year stretch (21 wins) in program history), but coach Ryan Silverfield’s squad is facing a significant rebuild (No. 115 in ESPN’s returning production metric).

Even though Memphis lost a ton from the ‘24 squad, the cupboard isn’t bare. Nevada transfer Brendon Lewis and true freshman AJ Hill will battle to replace Seth Henigan at quarterback. Greg Desrosiers is poised for a breakout year at running back, but the receiving corps is facing a significant turnover with the departure of four key contributors.

Only one of the Tigers’ top 15 tacklers returns from last season. Coordinator Jordon Hankins can start the rebuilding process around standout end William Whitlow (four sacks), with over 20 transfers expected to push for playing time on the two-deep depth chart. 

7. East Carolina

Blake Harrell’s promotion from defensive coordinator to interim coach provided East Carolina with a midseason spark in ‘24. After a 2-4 start, the Pirates surged with a 6-1 finish, including a 26-21 victory over NC State in the Military Bowl. With the interim tag removed, Harrell now has full control of the program. Can he maintain last year’s momentum in ‘25?

An offense that scored at least 38 points in four out of the last six games is Harrell’s biggest reason for optimism in ‘25. Quarterback Katin Houser (2,006 yards and 18 TDs) thrived under coordinator John David Baker and has potential to rank among the AAC’s top signal-callers this fall. Houser won’t lack for receivers to throw to, as Yannick Smith, Anthony Smith, and Jaquaize Pettaway (Oklahoma transfer) headline the list of options. Solidifying a line with just two starters back and sorting out the backfield to replace 1,000-yard rusher Rahjai Harris top the list of offseason concerns on offense.

With Harrell handling the full-time head coach role, he opted to hand off defensive play-calling duties and hired former Liberty and Auburn assistant Josh Aldridge. The Pirates only bring back two starters and have holes to plug at every level. But with the returning firepower on offense, East Carolina’s defense has time to find the right mix before AAC play picks up in late September.

8. North Texas

The Mean Green have posted back-to-back losing seasons in coach Eric Morris’ tenure, but the program is trending in the right direction after earning a bowl trip last fall. Finding balance is crucial for a step forward in ‘25. North Texas ranked among the best in the AAC in scoring offense (33.2 points a game) but also surrendered 34.2 points a contest.

Morris took steps to address the porous defense by hiring Skyler Cassity from Sam Houston to coordinate this unit. Cassity is one of the top assistant hires for the ‘25 season and imported a handful of his former players to Denton to provide instant help at every level.

Although Morris’ offense returns only three starters, scoring points won’t be a problem. Whether it’s former Albany and Miami signal-caller Reese Poffenbarger or redshirt freshman Drew Mestemaker replacing Chandler Morris under center, the Mean Green should be fine at quarterback. The winner of the quarterback battle will be throwing to a talented receiving corps that includes Miles Coleman, Landon Sides, and Dalton Carnes. The return of lineman Gabe Blair after missing nearly all of ‘24 is a huge boost to the trenches.

9. Florida Atlantic

The Owls could be one of the American Athletic Conference’s most intriguing teams to watch in 2025. New coach Zach Kittley produced some of the nation’s top offenses in stints as an offensive coordinator at Western Kentucky and Texas Tech and landed a handful of impact transfers to speed up the rebuilding process for a Florida Atlantic squad that finished 3-9 last year.

A pair of Western Kentucky transfers - quarterback Caden Veltkamp and receiver Easton Messer - should provide a spark for an offense that averaged 25.9 points a game. With Kittley calling the plays and Veltkamp’s arrival, this unit could quickly emerge as one of the best in the AAC. The Owls do need to find a couple of new starters in the trenches and develop depth at the skill spots.

With zero returning starters on defense, Florida Atlantic may need to win a lot of high-scoring affairs in ‘25. New coordinator Brett Dewhurst returns only one of the team’s top 13 tacklers from last season and need big-time contributions from several transfers to help this unit improve after giving up 6.1 yards per play. 

10. Temple

New coach KC Keeler is back home in Pennsylvania. The Keystone State native has recorded 271 career wins in stops at Rowan, Delaware, and Sam Houston and ranks among the top hires in the 2024-25 carousel. Losing seasons are rare for Keeler, but it may take the 65-year-old coach time to turn things around.

The Owls finished last in the AAC in scoring offense (19.6 points a game) in 2024, but Keeler and new coordinator Tyler Walker have pieces to work with. Senior Evan Simon is back under center to provide a veteran option during the offensive transition. However, he will be pushed by Oregon State transfer Gevani McCoy in the fall. Sam Houston transfer Jay Ducker is an impact addition at running back, while four starters are set to return up front.

After allowing 36 points in AAC play last year, Temple’s defense has only one way to go in ‘25. New coordinator Brian L. Smith brings his 3-3-5 attack from Rice that limited opponents to 25.4 points per contest last year. Demerick Morris and Allan Haye provide a solid foundation up front, but the Owls are facing significant turnover at linebacker and in the secondary.

11. Charlotte

Charlotte has just one winning record since its move to the FBS level in 2015. But optimism is high that the program is on the right track following the hire of new coach Tim Albin. Over the last three years at Ohio, Albin guided the team to a 30-10 record and a MAC Championship.

Transfers from power conferences headline the offense. At quarterback, Grayson Loftis (Duke) and Conner Harrell (North Carolina) will battle for the starting job in the fall. Running back Don Chaney (Louisville) should be an impact addition to the ground attack. However, the 49ers return only one starter on the line and face a major overhaul at receiver.

New coordinator Nate Faanes inherits a lineup with just one returning starter. However, the defense returns a couple of key contributors in linebacker Reid Williford and defensive backs Ja'Qurious Conley and Treyveon McGee. A handful of transfers will also make an impact, with former Ohio linebacker Shay Taylor topping the list. 

12. UAB

With a 7-17 record since taking over in 2023, the ‘25 campaign is likely a make-or-break season for coach Trent Dilfer. Improvement won’t be easy with the Blazers returning only three starters and a schedule that doesn’t have many guaranteed victories. Dilfer did take steps to address a porous defense by hiring Steve Russ as the team’s new coordinator.

UAB’s offense averaged 27.1 points in AAC contests last year but is facing a rebuilding effort all across the starting lineup. Quarterback Jalen Kitna (2,209 yards and 17 TDs) is back, and the combination of Isaiah Jacobs and Jevon Jackson should form a solid backfield. However, Dilfer’s offense must break in four new starters up front and restock a receiving corps losing standouts in Amare Thomas and Kam Shanks.

If UAB has any hope of exceeding preseason expectations, Russ needs to make a significant impact on a defense that surrendered 38.5 points in AAC matchups in ‘24. Just one starter returns, but Russ and Dilfer dipped into the portal for help, including potential impact additions in linemen Denver Warren (Sam Houston) and Nigel Tate (Boston College) and cornerback Perry Fisher (Maryland).

13. Rice

Winning consistently at Rice is no easy task, so the program opted to try something different with new coach Scott Abell. The 55-year-old coach thrived at hard jobs, going 86-52 at Washington & Lee and Davidson in recent years.

The biggest shift Abell plans to make in ‘25 is in offensive philosophy. In order to maximize talent and try something different, the Owls will deploy an option attack. Transitioning to this style of play may take time, but Rice has a couple of intriguing playmakers to utilize at running back Max Balthazar (Coastal Carolina transfer) and junior Quinton Jackson. Only two starters are back up front, and Abell needs to find a quarterback to run the new attack.

Rice’s defense quietly led the AAC in fewest yards per play (5.04) last season. Abell retained linebackers coach Jon Kay and promoted him to defensive coordinator for the ‘25 season. Kay should ensure continuity, but the Owls return only three starters and lost standout safety Gabriel Taylor.

14. Tulsa

New coach Tre Lamb arrives in Tulsa after working four years as the head coach at Gardner-Webb (2020-23) and a season at East Tennessee State (2024). At 35 years old, Lamb is one of the youngest FBS head coaches and faces a steep rebuild in his ‘25 debut.

Lamb’s background on offense should help Tulsa’s attack after it ranked 13th in the conference in yards per play (5.3) last season. Quarterback Kirk Francis flashed potential by throwing for 1,585 yards and nine scores in 11 appearances in ‘24, and Lamb has intriguing playmakers to deploy in running backs Braylin Pressley and Sevion Morrison (Kansas transfer), along with receivers Micah Tease (Texas A&M transfer) and Mekhi Miller (Missouri transfer). Just one starter returns up front.

Tulsa’s defense allowed a whopping 7.9 yards per play and 48.6 points in AAC games last season. Lamb brought Josh Reardon from East Tennessee State to fix this unit, but progress could be slow in ‘25. Considering how much this unit struggled last fall, changing over the personnel (three returning starters) isn’t necessarily a bad thing.