Analytics Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Michigan State Spartans

Despite the relative balance between the two quarterbacks, the Nebraska passing game should have a considerable advantage. The Spartans’ pass defense is as bad as the Huskers’ run defense. Michigan State allows 0.36 EPA* per pass (ranking 112th in the country).

*EPA assigns a “point” value for each play to distribute scoring action to each play and not just the touchdown, field goal, etc.

Boston College, Youngstown State, and USC have all thrown for 240+ yards, completed at least 68% of their passes, and thrown for multiple touchdowns against the Michigan State defense. Dylan Raiola should have his second straight 300-plus yard passing performance against a team from Michigan.

The Huskers’ pass defense is one of the best in the nation. Since 2000, only two teams (2015 Boston College and 2014 Stanford) have allowed fewer passing yards through four games. The Blackshirts’ EPA per pass attempt ranks second in the nation, according to CollegeFootballData.com. Michigan State only attempts 26.3 passes per game, but when they do throw, it is effective, ranking 32nd in EPA per play.

Aidan Chiles will present a similar challenge to the Huskers’ defense as Bryce Underwood. He’s a capable runner who can extend plays using his feet. Chiles has also been the Spartans' most significant threat for big plays on the ground. Michigan State’s running backs aren’t as good as the Wolverines that Nebraska faced last week, but Nebraska certainly made Justice Haynes look even better than he was by how it defended the run on a few plays. Lead running back Makhi Frazier hasn't produced many runs greater than 10 yards, but he is also able to get positive yards consistently.

Fortunately for the Huskers, Michigan State is below average in rushing production, averaging 0.04 EPA per play on the ground (109th in the nation). Can the Blackshirts keep the Spartans' rushing attack from looking much better than it has been? That battle may decide the outcome of this game.

Emmett Johnson has been the driving force of the Huskers’ rushing attack. He’s been having a good season, but was bottled up against a great Wolverines front seven in his last outing. Despite the Michigan talent, Nebraska still averaged 3.1 offensive line yards* per carry on offense (excluding sacks) in the previous outing. However, this is also a strength for the Spartans, as they rank 29th in the country in offensive line yards allowed by opponents.

*Line yards splits yardage credit between the rusher and offensive line, with various weights for negative yards, short runs, and long runs between the two

The Huskers should have a good passing day against the Spartans. Dylan Raiola has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country through his first four games this season, and he continues to put that on display against Michigan State. While Michigan State has a capable offense, the Blackshirts match up well against it.

The bye week provides both teams with ample opportunities to make adjustments before this game. Michigan State needs to improve its defense against the pass, while Nebraska must be able to stop the explosive runs. I think Nebraska will do a better job fixing its run defense than Michigan State does trying to exploit the rushing attack. The Huskers will continue to pass the ball at an elite level, forcing the Spartans to play from behind and throw the ball more than they would like. I have the Huskers winning 34-17.