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Dec 28, 2024; Bronx, NY, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) throws the ball during the second half against the Boston College Eagles at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Analytics Preview: Nebraska vs Cincinnati in Kansas City

Originally posted on Nebraska Cornhuskers on SI
By Eric Hess | Last updated Aug 27, 2025 12:31 PM ET

With Matt Rhule entering Year 3, the Huskers have big expectations.

Rhule’s teams have broken out during year three at Temple and Baylor, and Nebraska gets an opportunity on the national stage to show they’re ready for the same treatment. While this is technically a Cincinnati home game, many more Husker fans are expected to make the trip to Kansas City to watch the rematch of the 1906 Thanksgiving Day matchup between the Bearcats and Huskers.

The last time the Huskers and Bearcats met, the forward pass was in its infancy. While the trend never quite caught on in Lincoln, the Huskers now pair one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country with one of the greatest offensive minds in college football. Nebraska should have its most potent passing attack in program history in 2025.

A great measure for the impact of an individual play is Expected Points Added (EPA). For any given down, distance, and field position, you can estimate how many points the offense is expected to score from that spot on the field. If, after the play is run, that value has increased (because the team advanced the ball), the play has a positive EPA. Sacks and turnovers decrease the offense’s chances of scoring and are considered negative EPA.

The main takeaway for EPA for offense (and offensive players) is that higher is better. For defense, a lower EPA is better, as it reduces the opponent’s offensive EPA.

Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola got off to a fast start in 2024. His running total EPA (sum of all plays in which he was the passer, runner, or receiver) peaked at the end of the Purdue game. His midseason skid is evident in the running total EPA chart. It’s also obvious where the slide stopped – when Dana Holgorsen took over as offensive coordinator.

Arbitrary Analytics (via Nebraska Cornhuskers on SI)

Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby also got off to a hot start in 2024. Through 5 games, he was 11th in passing yards for the season with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Like Raiola, he cooled off in the middle of the season as a passer. He did, however, become a more effective runner during the back half of the season, ranking 12th in rushing yards among quarterbacks over the final six regular-season games. However, the Bearcats only went 1-5 over that time.

The Huskers’ rushing attack finished 11th in the Big Ten in yards per game in 2024. After Dana Holgorsen took over as the Huskers’ offensive coordinator, Nebraska finished 5th among Big Ten teams in total rushing yards after the team's tenth game. A large part of that was the emergence of Emmett Johnson as the lead back. He looks to be a bell cow back heading into 2025.

Arbitrary Analytics (via Nebraska Cornhuskers on SI)

Emmett Johnson would consistently get positive yards in 2024, but wasn’t a huge home run threat based on his carry distribution (plot of how frequently he would carry for X number of yards). Dylan Raiola also showed an ability to pick up yards on the ground, especially later in the season. Still, his sack totals brought his season rushing yardage to a negative total. I expect that Heinrich Haarberg and Jacorey Barney Jr. continue to be impact players on the ground.

The Bearcats brought in their top back from the portal this offseason, Tawee Walker. He is a transfer from Wisconsin who rushed for 55 yards against the Huskers in Lincoln last fall. He also had a crucial fumble at the end of the first half that helped Nebraska turn a 4-point lead into a 14-point lead in the final 30 seconds of the first half.

Walker broke off very few carries for more than 10 yards with the Badgers last season. Despite good box score stats, his rushing EPA of -10.49 ranked 219 out of 248 running backs in 2024. Failing to convert on crucial 4th and 1 opportunities against Alabama and USC hurt his EPA total as well as his fumble against Nebraska.

Arbitrary Analytics (via Nebraska Cornhuskers on SI)

Sorsby is a threat on the ground for Cincinnati. His rushing EPA was positive even when including sacks. He had more carries for 5-7 yards than he did for negative yardage in 2024. He will be a good test for a youthful Huskers’ front seven.

This game sets the tone for the season. The Huskers have brought in talented additions through the portal and are already building a strong 2026 and 2027 recruiting class. A primetime win with NFL stars in attendance would snowball the momentum Nebraska has been building since Raiola committed.

I expect Nebraska to get off to a fast start, much like it did in the Colorado game last season. Cincinnati is a talented team and won’t go down without a fight. I expect that the Bearcats slowly chip away at the Huskers’ lead, but Nebraska holds on to win by 10.

Matt Rhule Year 3 is here, and it’s going to be an electric season.

This article first appeared on Nebraska Cornhuskers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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