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Arch Manning receives praise, but serious doubts remain over him in Quarterback Tiers

Originally posted on A to Z Sports | By Zach Berry | Last updated Jul 17, 2025 2:30 PM ET

The Athletic's Sam Khan Jr. and Antonio Morales recently took on the task of grading every Football Bowl Subdivision starter from 1-to-136 – borrowing Mike Sando's exercise from last year's NFL season. It's a taxing exercise not just because it's one of the hardest positions to scout, but because there are a lot of moving parts this year in multiple quarterback rooms. They spoke with 40 different college football staffers and asked for opinions and how they each stack up against their colleagues.

Just look at the top Power 4 programs and you will see what I mean. Teams like Oklahoma, Miami, Oregon, Utah, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Michigan are all breaking in new quarterbacks.

And, as you know, Texas is also included in this group. Arch Manning, where you feel it is justified or not, is receiving a ton of preseason buzz. And the Athletic has joined the craze. Where is he ranked? Let's take a look and discuss if it's legitimate or not.

Sam Khan Jr. and Antonio Morales are very high on Arch Manning. But how high?

Manning was the final signal caller in Tier 1. He is the 10th-ranked player at the position, per The Athletic's sliding scale. He's just above Sawyer Robertson of Baylor and just below Josh Hoover of TCU. Khan and Morales admitted it was not easy. This tier is categorized as "the most talented QBs in the country, with the highest ceilings. They can carry their team and are often the biggest keys to victory. Many in this tier find themselves in the Heisman Trophy conversation".

"Ranking Manning was one of the toughest exercises. The outside expectations have reached a fever pitch, thanks to his recruiting profile, bloodlines and famous last name," they said. "There’s little question about his physical skills: He’s big, with a rocket arm and a healthy dose of athleticism."

It doesn't take an NFL scout to see the potential. The intangibles are through the roof and he's in a great spot at Texas with Steve Sarkisian and the playmakers around him. But, there are college coaches who are pumping the brakes.

“I don’t know if I would be ready to crown him as the best quarterback in the nation right now,” a Power 4 offensive coordinator said. “I didn’t walk away from the Louisiana-Monroe film thinking, ‘Man, this kid is a no-doubt first overall pick in the draft.’”

Arch Manning is a breath of fresh air in the transfer portal era. @colincowherd pic.twitter.com/0YsYR50QBu
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) July 17, 2025

The Athletic's Chris Branch has 'secondhand pressure' when looking at Arch Manning and this season.

"It is hard to remember a college player with the profile of Arch Manning," Branch said. "The Texas redshirt sophomore quarterback has played in just 12 college games (two starts) and thrown all of 95 passes. And yet, pedigree and hype have NFL prognosticators wondering if he’s the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.

"I feel secondhand pressure for the kid just pondering that alone. Because of it, Manning might be the most interesting player in college football this season," Branch said. "No one really knows. Manning clearly has the physical skills and genetic traits to be a great quarterback; we just need to see it first. To be fair, he did impress against subpar teams last year."

"All the fanfare is on potential, though.”

As a Power 4 coach said to Khan and Morales, it's impossible to prognosticate without a larger sample size. One head coach spoke with them and didn't hesitate to admit there's a lot to like, though.

“Arch Manning’s probably going to be great,” a Power 4 head coach said. “He should be great. He’s at Texas with a good coach and a good roster, and I think he’s good."

And just so you don't feel like you're taking crazy pills if you're like me and think Manning could be a special player and lead Texas back to the CFP, here's what Dane Brugler had to say.

Regardless if he is in the 2026 or 2027 NFL Draft class, Manning will be viewed as a prized prospect by NFL teams. With only two career starts to his name right now, there is plenty he still needs to prove. But beyond his last name, Manning has teased the skill set to be a high-end NFL starter. Watching his Mississippi State tape from last season, you see a big athlete who plays in rhythm and has the arm to attack every level of the field. - Dane Brugler, The Athletic

I personally think the mental makeup mixed with the big-bodied athleticism is enough to earn Texas a No. 1 preseason ranking. Furthermore, if the offensive line holes can be filled by the four and five-stars on the roster, I think it should be a seamless transition from Quinn Ewers to Arch Manning.

There's no denying the arm talent and multiple scouts and staffers in and around the Texas program rave about his anticipation. He's had ample time to learn the playbook, mesh with his teammates, and earn the trust in the locker room.

But we all know it's a different beast once the proverbia bullets in the SEC start flying. The good news is, we all get to find out August 30.

This article first appeared on A to Z Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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