Are ESPN's prospect comparisons for North Carolina QB Drake Maye a red flag?

Will North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye's draft stock dip after an ESPN story compared him to prospects who haven't made their mark in the NFL?

ESPN's Bill Connelly looked at advanced stats to find unique traits in the top QB prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft, including Maye, Southern Cal's Caleb Williams and LSU's Jayden Daniels. He used the data to determine prospect and pro comparisons for each passer.

Maye's prospect comps were Jake Browning and Jordan Ta'amu, which may raise concerns.

Browning went undrafted in 2019 and made his first start last season after Bengals' starting QB Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending right wrist injury in Week 11. To his credit, he went 4-3 in seven starts and completed 70.4 percent of his passes for 12 TDs and seven picks.

Ta'amu, meanwhile, has never played in the NFL, serving as a practice squad member for the Texans, Chiefs and Vikings. Now, he's with the DC Defenders in the UFL.

"As a prospect, he obviously grades out better than both of these players," wrote Connelly." But from a purely statistical standpoint, these are the guys who most closely match Maye's combination of efficiency, pressure avoidance and zone over man preferences. This is discouraging in one way — if you're drafting a guy with a top-five pick, you'd like a higher ceiling than this."

However, his pro comps were two-time Pro Bowler Jalen Hurts (Eagles) and Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson (Steelers). The discrepancy suggests he's a boom-or-bust prospect.

NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein likes Maye's upside but indicated the 21-year-old's not ready to start immediately.

"There is an undeniable energy to Maye's game that can create momentum or turn chaotic when plays come off-schedule for him," wrote Zierlein. "The combination of traits and tape makes him a boom/bust prospect who might need patient management and coaching to help shepherd him toward his potential."

In his latest mock draft, The Athletic's Ben Standig has the Vikings trading the 11th overall pick to the Cardinals to move up to the fourth slot and take Maye. This could be a good landing spot.
Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell is an offensive guru. Minnesota also signed bridge QB Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10M deal in free agency, which would give the North Carolina standout more time to learn.