Army vs. East Carolina Pick: Black Knights, Pirates Collide on Thursday

Army-East Carolina Keys to Victory

1. Unleash Katin Houser
Only three FBS quarterbacks have more passing yards this season than Houser (1,258), who’s airing the ball out almost 40 times per game. Given ECU’s inefficient run game (3.5 yards per carry), his play has been key to getting the Pirates downfield. But interestingly, they’ve been finishing off drives on the ground rather than through the air. All 10 of ECU’s rushing touchdowns are from inside the 20, more than doubling Houser’s four red zone passing scores. Seven different players have also scored a rushing touchdown. Nevertheless, the onus is on Houser to have a big game against Army, especially considering he threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns the last time these teams met.

2. Status of Dewayne Coleman
The Black Knights have gone back and forth between Coleman and Cale Hellums this season at quarterback. And though Hellums was under center for the win over Kansas State, Coleman has been the more dynamic option under center. He actually has more passing yards (230) than rushing yards (217) and helped Army force overtime last week against the Mean Green after he replaced Hellums. However, Coleman was injured in overtime, which forced coach Jeff Monken to turn back to Hellums. It’s unclear who’s set to start against the Pirates on Thursday, but Coleman looks to be the better option at this point. ECU’s defense has been stout, especially against the run, though mobile quarterbacks have caused problems. Coleman can keep the defense more honest.

3. Turnover Battle
Turnovers have been huge for the Pirates' defense. Their eight total takeaways rank near the top of the FBS, and their knack for forcing fumbles could turn the field against a run-heavy offense like Army. And it’s not as if the Black Knights don’t throw interceptions. Despite a limited number of attempts, Coleman has thrown two, and Hellums has one. Houser tossed 11 picks a season ago, and he already has three this year, but Army’s defense has not been opportunistic with takeaways so far. ECU enters the game with a strong advantage in starting field position and can’t afford to give the plodding Black Knights’ offense any short fields.

Final Score Prediction: East Carolina 27, Army 20

Both teams need this game badly. The Black Knights cannot afford a 1-3 start (0-2 in conference), and the Pirates have a challenging schedule ahead in American play. The certainty under center with Houser gives the Pirates the upper hand. They'll be able to get up and down the field and cap off scoring drives on the ground against a suspect Army run defense. One more thing to watch in this game is the penalty differential. The Black Knights have been flagged just eight times for 60 yards, while ECU has been flagged 37 times for 296 yards. That could give Army an edge.

ATS: East Carolina -3.5
O/U: Under 53.5