Auburn Faces Most Crucial Season-Opener in Recent Memory

It all kicks off with Auburn’s clash against Baylor in Waco this Friday in what could be the program’s most important season opener in an extremely long time.

Auburn currently sits as a 2.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel, in a betting line that has fluctuated tremendously over the course of the summer, but many believe the matchup will be a ‘pick-em’ come 7 p.m. CT on Friday evening.

• Editor's Note - Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Obviously, beginning the season with a win is always desired, but this game isn’t just about starting 1-0 – it’s deeper than that. The game will evoke a multitude of potential storylines and reactions from the public, good or bad, regardless of the outcome.

An Auburn win would be absolutely enormous for the program, as well as Freeze’s seat temperature, and would completely revitalize the fanbase. Especially if Oklahoma transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold manages the offense with confidence, the defense lives up to the excitement it has generated during fall camp, and the Tigers are clicking on all cylinders, a victory would provide a huge momentum boost heading into the home opener against Ball State.

On the flip side, a loss, particularly one that unveils recurring issues similar to previous years, may be detrimental for the Tigers.

A defeat in Waco could cause many people to adopt a “here we go again” mentality and may cause a large chunk of the fanbase to check out, while some may even call for Freeze to be fired. Losing to the Bears would most likely mean quarterback issues and the inability to execute, a familiar theme of the Tigers’ four consecutive losing seasons. 

If Auburn opens the season 0-1, it would likely travel to Norman for its first SEC matchup against Oklahoma with a 2-1 record, and need to steal at least one of Oklahoma and Texas A&M in order to enter the Georgia game above .500. Thus, a loss would create a gaping hole Auburn would have to dig out of right out of the gates.

It’s not impossible to lose to Baylor and beat the Sooners or the Aggies, but it definitely would be a discouraging sign to fall to a squad with less talent than both of those teams.

Auburn’s worst possible scenario, obviously, is to start out 2-3 heading into the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry with zero Power Four wins and a 0-2 record in conference play, meaning 2-4 would be staring the Tigers directly in the face – that’s when the panic would start to set in.

However, Auburn could avoid all of the less-than-desirable speculative situations by emerging victorious on Friday. If they accomplish that, Freeze and company could afford to lose two challenging road games at Oklahoma and Texas A&M and sit at 3-2 while still feeling somewhat “okay” after the month of September.

In a dream scenario, Auburn rolls into Norman undefeated for Arnold’s revenge game against Oklahoma in what would most likely be a primetime matchup. And if the Tigers could pull off a victory against John Mateer and the Sooners, watch out for Auburn.

The moral of the story, you may ask?

Beat Baylor.

In recent history, Auburn’s more successful seasons have been accompanied by games versus quality opponents to open the season.

In the last 13 years, Auburn has finished above .500 every year that featured a Power Four (formerly Power Five) matchup in the season opener.  The Tigers opened with a power opponent in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2020 (COVID-19 season), all in which they claimed a winning record. 

On the other hand, Auburn boasted a losing record in four of the five years that it played a non-Power 4 or FCS opponent in Week One since 2017, with the only exception being the College Football Playoff-contending 2017 squad.

To put it simply, this is one of the – if not the – biggest openers in Auburn football history. With the implications that could sprout from the highly-anticipated outcome of this game, Auburn’s clash with Baylor this week isn’t necessarily a must-win, but it’s about as close as it can get to being one.

If the Tigers can limit turnovers, Arnold plays within himself while not trying to do too much, and utilize their weapons to the fullest, Auburn should find success in Waco.

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