Auburn vs. Baylor football prediction: What the analytics say

A notable SEC vs. Big 12 matchup is set to kick off the 2025 college football season as Auburn hits the road against Baylor on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Auburn heads into its third year with Hugh Freeze at the helm, and while he’s yet to finish over .500, this team could end up fielding one of the best wide receiver groups in the SEC, led by five-star transfer quarterback Jackson Arnold.

But the SEC hopefuls face a stiff test in Week 1, going on the road against one of a few credible contenders for the Big 12 title, as Baylor hopes to build off last season’s strong finish, when it won six straight games after starting 2-4 a year ago.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Auburn vs. Baylor football prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Big 12 squad in this matchup against its SEC counterpart in the opener, but by a very narrow margin.

Baylor is the modest favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 51.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the presumptive winner in the remaining 48.2 percent of sims.

In total, Baylor comes out ahead in the majority 10,360 simulations of the game, while Auburn edged out the Bears in the other 9,640 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Baylor is expected to be just 1.9 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would constitute an upset for the Big 12 side against this SEC opponent.

That’s because Auburn is a 2.5 point favorite against Baylor, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Auburn at -134 and for Baylor at +112 to win the game outright.

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Where the money is going

A slight majority of bettors are sticking with the Tigers over the Bears in this non-conference opener, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Auburn is getting 57 percent of bets to win the game by at least a field goal and cover the narrow point spread in the 2025 season debut.

The other 43 percent of wagers project Baylor will either defeat Auburn outright in an upset or lose the game by fewer than three points.

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Auburn vs. Baylor future projections

Auburn debuted in the No. 20 position on the Power Index’s complete 136-team college football rankings heading into the Week 1 matchup.

The model projects the Tigers will be 10.7 points better against an average opponent on a neutral field, and will win 7.0 games in 2025.

Auburn has a 12.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, but a meager 0.8 percent shot to win the SEC championship.

Baylor checks in at No. 28 overall in the FPI’s national team football rankings.

The computer projects the Bears will win 7.6 games this season and will be an expected 8.8 points better than an average opponent in 2025.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

And it was one of a select few models that went over 50 percent when making its predictions against the spread, coming out ahead in 52.235 percent of its ATS projections. That was good for second-best among all college football prediction models among 55 various outlets.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to watch Auburn vs. Baylor

When: Fri., Aug. 29
Where: Waco, Tex.

Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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