Auburn vs. Oklahoma game prediction by ESPN football computer

Oklahoma hosts Auburn in college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday in a battle of undefeated teams each playing their SEC opener. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

John Mateer leads a more confident Oklahoma offense that averages more than 316 yards per game passing and is scoring more than five touchdowns per game on average while accounting for 9 all-purpose touchdowns throwing and rushing the ball.

And the Sooners’ defense, now under the direct management of head coach Brent Venables, is among the nation’s best in allowing under a touchdown per game each time out, ranking fourth among 136 FBS teams through three games.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oklahoma vs. Auburn prediction

A solid majority of the simulations are predicting the Sooners will stay undefeated and get an early leg-up in SEC play this weekend after crunching the numbers.

Oklahoma is a big favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 65.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the presumptive winner in the remaining 34.7 percent of sims.

In total, the Sooners came out on top in 13,060 simulations of the matchup while Auburn edged out Oklahoma in the other 6,940 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close result on Saturday.

Oklahoma is projected to be 3.9 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Sooners to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Oklahoma is a 6.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -240 and for Auburn at +195 to win outright.

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Spread consensus predictions

A sizable majority of bettors are expecting the Sooners will hold serve at home against the Tigers in the SEC opener, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Oklahoma is getting 68 percent of bets to win by at least a touchdown and cover the point spread to stay undefeated this week.

The other 32 percent of wagers project Auburn will either upset the Sooners outright on the road, or will lose the game by less than a touchdown.

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Oklahoma vs. Auburn future projections

Both these teams currently rate around the middle of the SEC when predicting their future, based on the computer’s updated 136-team college football rankings.

Oklahoma places seventh in the conference, expected to be 16.5 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field and ranked 13th nationally this week.

The model projects the Sooners will win 8.1 games this season, and have a 42.6 percent shot to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Auburn ranks 10th among SEC teams with a decent 24 percent chance to make the postseason field and is expected to be two touchdowns better than opponents in the future.

The computer forecasts the Tigers will win 7.5 games in 2025.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.1 percent of all games and hit 52.8 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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