Auburn's Biggest Advantage Over Baylor is on the Perimeter

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda prides himself on being a defensive-minded coach. This Friday night, he gets to put that to the test as the Auburn Tigers bring their talented wide receiver room on the road to Waco.

Last year, the Bears couldn't stop anything through the air, claiming the 94th pass defense in all of FBS, allowing 234.2 yards per game. 

People will tout their six-game win streak during their 8-5 campaign, but those numbers require a bit of nuance. The defense surrendered 22 passing touchdowns a year ago. Now, an apologist may say that was before Baylor hit the portal this season.

However, Baylor's probable two-deep depth chart only features one new player in the secondary, transfer safety Tyler Turner. As a result, many of those players were the exact ones who couldn't stop a nosebleed in 2024. Will experience make them better? 

Excuses

If you watch shows and read pieces online, you will see Baylor's poor secondary play as a consequence of playing explosive Big 12 passing attacks. If that were completely true, explain both Iowa State and Houston ranking in the top 20 in pass defense a year ago. You cannot spin over 230 yards allowed through the air.

Problems

Auburn will make things exceedingly difficult for the Bears. With the ability to roll out at least five wideouts, what recourse does Aranda have? Should he use a dime package and hope that Arnold misses out? That brings up several problems. 

First, the Bears' worst corner is several shades worse than the Tigers' fifth wideout. Or, do they send an extra rusher? In college, like in the NFL, you will see coaches commit the cardinal sin of sending three rushers at Arnold. That will be the sign of a defense that will play scared in passing situations.

Plus, it leaves the defense vulnerable to the Tigers’ rushing attack and scrambles from Arnold.

The Measure of a Defensive Back

If you simply read stats, you will see Baylor with fourteen interceptions last season. Then, you see the 22 opposing touchdowns. What happened in the passing games before those scores? Which one of Baylor's corners will attempt to lock down Cam Coleman? 

Lost in the battle is the effectiveness of the Auburn offensive line. If Arnold can stay vertical, then he's picking the Bears apart. Selling the house could actually be a desperate move, but one of the most effective strategies.

Talent

Above all else, talent swings the way towards Auburn. The Tigers boast a receiver room that contains at least two players projected as first-round picks in the coming years: Eric Singleton Jr.

As always, wide receiver is a dependent position, and Auburn’s success rides on head coach Hugh Freeze finding a comfort zone for Arnold. If Arnold gets comfortable, the Bears’ secondary is in for a long night.

Auburn plays Baylor on Friday night at 7:00 p.m. CT in Waco, Texas. The game is scheduled to be televised by FOX.