Behind Enemy Lines: TCU Horned Frogs

Coming off a bye week, Baylor is headed into their 121st meeting against longtime rival TCU. The Horned Frogs lead the all-time matchup 59-54-7, but Baylor is 4-1 coming off bye weeks during Dave Aranda's tenure. This year's matchup features the country's top two statistical passers, two teams pairing similarly explosive offenses with vulnerable defenses, and two 4-2 squads looking to salvage their chances at getting to Arlington for the Big 12 championship game. While there seems to be some clear conclusions about this Baylor squad six weeks in, the back half of this schedule will show Baylor's true colors and determine how fans view Dave Aranda's sixth season in Waco. With that, we're keeping our Behind Enemy Lines series with JD Andress, the lead beat reporter for TCU football, basketball, and baseball. Give JD a follow over on X @Jdandress11!

Q: What is the state and feeling around the program following the Kansas State loss? Obviously, there were some crucial turnovers, but also a general uneasy feeling about the current state of the program under Sonny Dykes. What’s your read on how fans and personnel close to the program are feeling about TCU right now? 

Andress: The state of the program is difficult to decipher at the moment. While fans are increasingly upset with what seems like “complacency” within the program, it’s a tough job to go with. Dykes has been one of the best recruiters in program history, and while it wasn’t his players, he did lead them to the national championship in 2022. Fans will always be upset if the Frogs aren’t playing in Arlington, and with a roster this talented and this experienced, they have the right to be. The interesting part is the personnel right, there is still a lot of buy-in, but from what I heard this weekend after the loss in Manhattan, there was a lot of question marks surrounding the game plan and what happened exactly. 

Q: You've mentioned that TCU opened as a four-point favorite at the sportsbooks for this rivalry game. Do TCU fans, even coming off that double-digit loss to Kansas State, still feel as if they should comfortably beat Baylor? 

Andress: Confidence around the program feels as if it is the lowest it has been since their loss to Houston at home last season, but still, I think they look at this game against the Bears, and it being at home, strikes them as a confidence boost. The Frogs are a completely different team playing in Fort Worth compared to being on the road, and that has been evident the entire time of Dykes tenure. There’s apprehension, and with the home place odds boost, it’s basically a pick em’ game, but the confidence to beat your rival, will always be there. 

Q: Give me some context around the TCU-Baylor rivalry. Obviously, both programs have had higher peaks than where they currently stand, but how much — similar to what we saw in last week’s Red River game — do you throw out the records and focus on this being a highly contested rivalry game that’s a major source of pride for both fanbases? 

Andress: That’s the funny part about this rivalry, it seems as if whoever the home team is, wins, minus the 2022 bazooka walk-off kick that lives in infamy for TCU fans. This year especially, you throw out the records, and you throw out the struggles, and look at two explosive offenses, with defenses who at times can’t stop a wet paper bag, and you just think it will come down to whoever has the ball last, and whoever makes less mistakes. Anything can happen between these two teams, especially involving the top-two quarterbacks in the country in terms of passing yards, and focus on the disdain between the fan bases, and it makes this a way more important game than meets the eye at first glance.

Q: Talk to me a little bit about Josh Hoover from your perspective. Undoubtedly one of the most talented quarterbacks, arm-talent-wise, in the country — but last year he threw double-digit interceptions and currently leads the conference with six. How do you view Hoover compared to Sawyer Robertson, who leads the country in passing touchdowns and yards? Do you see Hoover as a boom-or-bust type guy, an NFL prospect, or someone who could potentially raise TCU’s ceiling to reach nine or ten wins? 

Andress: Josh Hoover is one of the best pure arm talents in all of college football. He can deliver a strike at any level of the field with ease and has one of the best ball placements in the country. The issue he has, though, is two things; Sometimes he feels he has to do too much and forces throws he shouldn’t, and he relies on his arm talent too much at times. The latter is more evident when a pocket is collapsing, rather than stepping up to deliver a throw, he will throw from his back foot, more often than not missing high. Limiting those and trying to take what the defense gives him would make him the best statistical quarterback in the country.

Q: What’s your current view of the state of the TCU program? There was a lot of excitement around the UNC blowout in Week 1, but UNC’s struggles have shifted that perspective. This is a program that reached college football’s heights in the early-to-mid 2010s but hasn’t been as nationally relevant in recent years. What are realistic expectations for TCU moving forward, and what would a return to national relevance look like? How much of the current fan unrest with Sonny Dykes plays into that?

Andress: With how much turnover they will experience next season, primarily along the offensive line, and in the secondary, it’s hard to project the next season. However, they keep recruiting at an extremely high level, but so are Texas Tech, Baylor, and Arizona State. The difference when it comes to that is execution and coaching. Dykes has talked before this season and last, about being better at getting his team prepared to be able to win, and multiple times, they haven’t looked prepared. I don’t say in a “They won’t return under him” way, but rather the road is increasingly challenging, but the conference could be top-heavy soon, if they are in that upper half, a return could be sooner than it looks from the outside. Q: What are some key X-factors for this TCU team that Baylor fans should be aware of? Obviously, people know about Josh Hoover and Eric McAllister, but give me a bit of context around this TCU defense outside of Bud Clark. Baylor is one of the most explosive offenses in the country — where could TCU’s defense hold a matchup advantage that might slow them down? 

Andress: TCU’s biggest weakness on defense, and especially heightened in their losses this season, are mobile quarterbacks. While Robertson has the ability to use his legs, and effectively, the defensive line, and linebackers, are better about being able to pin their ears back and get after a pocket passer if they aren’t worrying about outside contain and a qb spy. Finding a way to slow him down, create pressure, especially with Devean Deal, who has been one of the better rated PFF linebackers at generating pressure, will open up an avenue for the secondary to perform better. The secondary breaks down the longer they are in coverage, and not allowing Robertson to extend the play is a big key. 

Q: Give me your game prediction — final score and any X-factors that could swing the outcome. 

Andress: This is the hard part right? Based off everything I said above, especially regarding how in a rivalry anything can happen. If the Frogs can’t tone down the penalties and turnovers, it will be no different than their result against KSU. I have more faith in the Bears to play cleaner football, so they get the nod from me as of now. Baylor 42, TCU 38