Behind The Numbers: 2025 FCS Playoffs Preview

The 2025 FCS Playoffs are finally here. As we always do, we are going to bring you the most detailed statistical breakdown you'll find anywhere else. With this, you will have everything you need to analyze each matchup and discuss what will happen in each playoff matchup as we go through the postseason.

For each round, we will release analysis for each matchup that directly compares relevant numbers, but those previews will always be based on the statistics used here.

Before going into the numbers, I want to give a small breakdown of which statistics were used and why they were selected. Too often, all we look at are stats like points per game, yards per game, and a bunch of "per game" statistics that don't have much meaning outside of proper context.

We want to look at how effective teams are per play, attempt, run, etc. This provides context on the different paces of play for each team and what their individual games may have looked like during the season, giving us a better overall picture.

Success Rate and Yards Per Play (YPP): These two statistics measure a team's efficiency on a down-to-down basis and are more predictive, filtering out random events that can skew final results. Success rate looks at how effective teams have been overall and treats every play the same. YPP gives us a look at how explosive a team is. Explosive plays, or limiting explosive plays, can often turn the tide of a game.

Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA): This is simple. Both of these show how effective teams are when they run the ball and pass the ball. This gives us a better look than "per-game" stats, as every team has a different run and pass rate.

Red Zone TD%: This statistic shows how effective a team is at actually scoring touchdowns when they reach the red zone. Postseason games usually have a small margin of error, which makes holding an opponent to a field goal or scoring a touchdown every time you reach the red zone could make all the difference. For example, 2023 SDSU was elite at keeping teams out of the end zone, while 2024 NDSU was outstanding at scoring touchdowns in red-zone opportunities.

Turnover Rate, Pressure Rate, & TFL Rate: These are all measured based on the number of plays a team has played, giving a sense of how often they turn the ball over (Or generate turnovers), pressure the quarterback (Or give up pressure), and generate negative plays (Or give up TFLs).

Below is a ranking of all 24 teams in the FCS Playoffs if we balance all the statistics together and adjust for strength of schedule. Here are the offensive and defensive rankings.

Total Offensive Ranking:

1. Montana State

2. North Dakota State

3. Lehigh

4. Youngstown State

5. Tarleton State

6. Mercer

7. Harvard

8. UC Davis

9. Tennessee Tech

10. Montana

11. Illinois State

12. Southeastern Louisiana

13. Villanova

14. Rhode Island

15. South Dakota

16. North Dakota

17. Stephen F. Austin

18. Yale

19. Abilene Christian

20. South Dakota State

21. Central Connecticut State

22. New Hampshire

23. Drake

24. Lamar

Total Defensive Ranking:

1. North Dakota State

2. Stephen F. Austin

3. Tennessee Tech

4. North Dakota

5. Lehigh

6. South Dakota State

7. Yale

8. Montana State

9. Tarleton State

10. Mercer

11. Lamar

12. Southeastern Louisiana

13. Harvard

14. Rhode Island

15. Montana

16. Drake

17. Abilene Christian

18. Illinois State

19. Central Connecticut State

20. Villanova

21. Youngstown State

22. UC Davis

23. South Dakota

24. New Hampshire

Now we will give a brief breakdown of each team, including their strengths and weaknesses. The individual statistical breakdown, with their rank among all playoff teams, is also listed below.

Check back later in the week for the Behind The Numbers preview for the entire first round.

No. 1 North Dakota State

Offensive Rank: 2nd
Defensive Rank: 1st

Strengths:

- North Dakota State ranks 1st or 2nd in both offensive and defensive success rate and yards per play. They dominate in consistency and explosive plays.

- The Bison also rank Top 8 in every defensive statistical category.

- North Dakota State is particularly dominant in the passing game. The Bison average 11.89 yards per attempt, which is more than 2.5 yards per attempt more than any other team in the field.

Weaknesses:

- Their only "weakness" may be the pressure and TFL rate they allow. Some of this can be attributed to Cole Payton's tendency to hold onto the ball for a long time, which clearly doesn't hinder him. His ability to break the pocket and make plays with his legs can be lethal.

No. 2 Montana State

Offensive Rank: 1st
Defensive Rank: 8th

Strengths:

- Montana State ranks Top 9 in every offensive statistical category except pressure rate allowed.

- The running game has really gained steam behind the duo of Julius Davis and Adam Jones, along with the legs of quarterback Justin Lamson.

- Montana State has an elite passing defense, and while they don't get a ton of sacks, they do an excellent job at generating pressure.

Weaknesses:

- The "weakness" for the Bobcats is relative, but they have occasionally allowed explosive plays in the run game. The rushing defense has also struggled a bit at keeping offenses out of the end zone in short-yardage situations.

No. 3 Montana

Offensive Rank: 10th
Defensive Rank: 15th

Strengths:

- Montana has an elite red zone offense, scoring a touchdown on 80% of their opportunities.

- The Griz offense boasts elite playmakers who thrive on explosive plays. Michael Wortham's versatility offers a mismatch against most defenses, particularly in the open field.

- Defensively, the Grizzlies have excelled at forcing turnovers. The secondary has recorded 18 interceptions this season.

Weaknesses:

- The relative weakness for the offense has been consistency. While they generate explosive plays, they have also struggled to be consistently effective throughout the entire game.

- The defense has been solid, but tends to allow explosive plays, both through the air and on the ground.

No. 4 Tarleton State

Offensive Rank: 5th
Defensive Rank: 9th

Strengths:

- Tarleton State mixes in explosive plays, both on the ground and through the air, while almost never turning the ball over. That leads to a very efficient offense that ranks Top 8 in nearly every statistical category.

- The Texans excel defensively at causing havoc through creating turnovers, generating pressure, and getting tackles for loss. The defense has also been excellent in the red zone.

Weaknesses:

- Tarleton State's offense has allowed a ton of negative plays, while the defense has really struggled to stop the run at times.

No. 5 Lehigh

Offensive Rank: 3rd
Defensive Rank: 5th

Strengths:

- Lehigh does an excellent job staying on schedule, which starts with not giving up negative plays offensively.

- The Mountain Hawks have been able to create explosive plays through the air and on the ground.

- One of the biggest strengths has been the front seven, which has not shown any weaknesses or vulnerability.

Weaknesses:

- Lehigh's secondary can give up explosive plays over the top.

No. 6 Mercer

Offensive Rank: 6th
Defensive Rank: 10th

Strengths:

- The offensive line has been very good in pass protection, much improved from last season.

- Generating explosive plays through the air to a variety of weapons, including five players with over 300 receiving yards.

- The Bears have been excellent against the run, while also generating pressure on the quarterback. A lot of this is tied to Andrew Zock, who has recorded 20 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks.

Weaknesses:

- Mercer's defense ranks as one of the worst defenses in the bracket at giving up explosive passing plays.

No. 7 Stephen F. Austin

Offensive Rank: 17th
Defensive Rank: 2nd

Strengths:

- Excels at every statistical category defensively. The Lumberjacks limit explosive plays while generating a ton of pressure, TFLs, and turnovers.

- The Lumberjacks have been solid at scoring touchdowns in the red zone

Weaknesses:

- Average offensive consistency, but does not generate a ton of explosive plays

- The rushing attack can go missing against elite defenses

No. 8 UC Davis

Offensive Rank: 8th
Defensive Rank: 22nd

Strengths:

- Elite offensive efficiency

- The passing attack can be elite with Caden Pinnick, along with Tim Plough's creativity as a play caller

Weaknesses:

- High turnover and pressure rate, which can be attributed to Pinnick's inexperience. His athleticism also plays a role, as he is always trying to make a play when things break down.

- Ranks near the bottom for every defensive statistical category among postseason teams

No. 9 Rhode Island

Offensive Rank: 14th
Defensive Rank: 14th

Strengths:

- Very efficient offense, particularly through the air with quarterback Devin Farrell.

- The Rams have not allowed many explosive plays, especially through the air. A lot of this can be attributed to their pressure rate, led by All-American linebacker A.J. Pena.

Weaknesses:

- The Rams rank last among playoff teams in turnover rate

- They have struggled to establish the run at times, ranking near the bottom among all postseason teams

No. 10 Abilene Christian

Offensive Rank: 19th
Defensive Rank: 17th

Strengths:

- One of the best teams in the field at forcing turnovers

- The Wildcats have held opponents under four yards per carry, holding five teams under 100 yards rushing

Weaknesses:

- The offense has been pretty average statistically, ranking between 14th and 20th in every statistical category

- Defensively, Abilene Christian does not generate a ton of pressure

No. 11 South Dakota

Offensive Rank: 15th
Defensive Rank: 23rd

Strengths:

- One of the most consistent rushing attacks in the field, featuring L.J. Phillips Jr. with 1,556 yards and 15 touchdowns

- Limits negative plays and turnovers offensively

Weaknesses:

- The Coyotes have allowed a ton of pressure and have struggled to finish in the red zone

- South Dakota ranks between 19th and 24th in every defensive category among playoff teams

No. 12 Villanova

Offensive Rank: 13th
Defensive Rank: 20th

Strengths:

- The Wildcats almost never turn the ball over, leading all teams in the field with a 0.7% turnover rate

- Very effective offensively, stays on schedule with the ground game

Weaknesses:

- The Wildcats rank last among all playoff teams in tackles for loss allowed

- Secondary has a tendency to give up explosive passing plays

No. 13 Tennessee Tech

Offensive Rank: 9th
Defensive Rank: 3rd

Strengths:

- Elite run defense, allowing only 2.3 yards per carry, which leads all playoff teams

- Does an excellent job at generating negative plays while limiting negative plays

- Offensively, the Golden Eagles have generated a ton of explosive plays in the run game

Weaknesses:

- Offensive consistency and efficiency

- Forcing turnovers

No. 14 South Dakota State

Offensive Rank: 20th
Defensive Rank: 6th

Strengths:

- Rushing defense

- The Jacks have done an outstanding job at generating turnovers and pressure

- Even with some of the offensive line questions, the Jacks have limited the amount of pressures allowed

Weaknesses:

- SDSU does not generate explosive plays in the run game, which could be tied to the high number of TFLs that the Jacks have allowed

- Ranks between 17th and 24th for all offensive statistical categories except pressure allowed

No. 15 Youngstown State

Offensive Rank: 4th
Defensive Rank: 21st

Strengths:

- Excellent in nearly every offensive statistical category

- Offense is consistent, efficient, and generates explosive plays

Weaknesses:

- Ranks last among all playoff teams in yards per play allowed, which is tied to giving up explosive plays on the ground and through the air

- Ranks last among all teams in red zone defense, allowing a touchdown on nearly 80% of all red zone opportunities

No. 16 Southeastern Louisiana

Offensive Rank: 12th
Defensive Rank: 12th

Strengths:

- Balanced offense, ranking between 11th and 14th in nearly every offensive statistical category

- Defense is solid down-to-down

Weaknesses:

- The Lions have a tendency to give up explosive plays

- The defense has not forced turnovers at a high rate, ranking among the bottom five teams

Yale

Offensive Rank: 18th
Defensive Rank: 7th

Strengths:

- Very good red zone defense

- Does not allow many explosive plays and generates a high-pressure rate

- Creates explosive plays through the air on limited attempts

Weaknesses:

- Offense has struggled with efficiency, lacking effectiveness down-to-down

- The Bulldogs lean on the run game, but they only rank 18th in yards per carry among playoff teams

Harvard

Offensive Rank: 7th
Defensive Rank: 13th

Strengths:

- Very efficient offense down-to-down, a lot of this can be attributed to quarterback Jaden Craig

- Offensive line does not allow many negative plays

- The passing defense has been elite most of the season

Weaknesses:

- The Crimson has failed to generate a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks

- The first weakness is tied to this, but the defense has not excelled at generating negative plays

North Dakota

Offensive Rank: 16th
Defensive Rank: 4th

Strengths:

- Rushing defense, holding opponents to only 3.0 yards per carry

- Does not allow explosive plays often

- Excels at forcing turnovers, tied for No. 1 in the MVFC with 14 interceptions

Weaknesses:

- One of the worst passing offenses in the field, ranking 23rd out of 24 teams in yards per pass attempt

- The Hawks have one of the highest turnover rates offensively

Illinois State

Offensive Rank: 11th
Defensive Rank: 18th

Strengths:

- One of the best red zone offenses in the playoffs

- Does an excellent job at limiting pressure on quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse

Weaknesses:

- Doesn't create explosive plays frequently

- Worst defensive success rate of all teams in the field

Lamar

Offensive Rank: 24th
Defensive Rank: 11th

Strengths:

- Defense is elite at generating negative plays

- The Cardinals have one of the best passing defenses in the field, allowing less than 175 passing yards per game

Weaknesses:

- Statistically, one of the worst offenses in the field, ranking 21st or lower in all offensive categories but one

New Hampshire

Offensive Rank: 22nd
Defensive Rank: 24th

Strengths:

- Does an excellent job at limiting turnovers

- Fairly efficient passing attack

Weaknesses:

- Defense ranks between 17th and 23rd in every category among the 24 playoff teams

- One of the worst run defenses and rushing offenses in the field

Central Connecticut State

Offensive Rank: 21st
Defensive Rank: 19th

Strengths:

- Solid red zone defense

- Does a great job at generating tackles for loss and pressure

- The offensive line does a good job of limiting pressure and negative plays

Weaknesses:

- Poor rushing defense and rushing offense

- Struggles in the red zone offensively

- One of the lowest turnover rates in the field

Drake

Offensive Rank: 23rd
Defensive Rank: 16th

Strengths:

- Red zone defense is very good, allowing touchdowns on only 46% of opportunities

- Top 10 rush defense and rushing offense among all playoff teams

Weaknesses:

- Allows a tackle for loss on nearly 11% of their offensive plays

- Struggles to generate pressure consistently