Behind The Numbers: Week 5 FCS Football Review

Each week, we will highlight a couple of marquee national matchups and then use success rate to gain a deeper look into what happened in the game beyond the final score. We will take a look at the most dominant teams of the week, which teams outplayed their opponent but made too many mistakes to get a win on the field, and which teams got outplayed despite escaping with a win.

Success rate removes many of the underlying factors of a game and strictly tells you how well a team played down-to-down. While outliers can swing an individual game, success rate can be a better indicator of what future performance will be. A play is "successful" if 50% of the yards needed are gained on first down, 70% are gained on second down, and 100% are gained on third or fourth down.

The Average Success Rate for a college football program is about 40%, while closer to 50% is considered excellent, and anything under 30% is deemed poor.

We take a look behind the numbers from this weekend's FCS action in Week 5.

Montana 41, Idaho 30

Success Rate: Montana (47.8%), Idaho (32.3%)

Despite the final score, Montana was quite dominant in a ranked home win over Idaho. This was a big day for the Montana defense, and a lot of the story is told in the 32.3% success rate for the Vandals. Outside of three explosive pass plays in the second half, Idaho's offense was very poor. Joshua Wood completed passes of 62, 47, and 45 yards in the second half, but the Vandals were already down 24-6. Idaho managed only 216 total yards the rest of the game on 59 plays, which is only 3.7 yards per play. The Idaho rushing attack never got going as multiple running backs were out due to injury. The Vandals only averaged 3.2 yards per carry, putting a ton of pressure on Wood to make plays through the air.

On the other side, Montana's offense was consistent throughout the game. It started with the passing attack, which had a 52% success rate. Keali'i Ah Yat was excellent, going 17-of-23 for 223 passing yards, one touchdown, and no turnovers. There were two drops in this game as well, meaning Ah Yat finished with an adjusted completion percentage of 86.4%. Ah Yat excelled on deep passes, completing 6-of-7 throws for 105 yards and one touchdown on passes 10 or more yards downfield. Finally, Ah Yat thrived under pressure, completing 4-of-5 passes under duress. Eli Gillman was also spectacular with 142 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 3.1 yards per carry after contact and forced four missed tackles in the open field.

Incarnate Word 38, Abilene Christian 7

Success Rate: UIW (54.1%), ACU (46.3%)

Incarnate Word finally got off the mat this season with a big ranked win over Abilene Christian. The game was closer than the scoreboard suggests, but Incarnate Word limited mistakes and was the tougher team. UIW dominated high-leverage moments of the game, including going 9-of-17 on third down and 3-of-4 on fourth down. That's a 57% conversion rate, while ACU only converted 2-of-11 (18.2%) third and fourth down attempts. The Wildcats also turned the ball over twice with two interceptions.

The box score is misleading as Incarnate Word finished with 423 total yards compared to Abilene Christian's 248. However, ACU averaged five yards per play on 50 plays compared to 4.8 yards per play on 89 plays for UIW. That number is skewed by the 66-yard run by Rovaughn Banks on the game's first drive, setting up ACU's only touchdown. Outside of that run, ACU's offense only averaged 3.7 yards per play and 2.2 yards per carry. The UIW defense dominated this game, taking away almost all the options for ACU's offense. More importantly, there were no recorded missed tackles for UIW.

The Incarnate Word offense found success on the ground with dynamic quarterback EJ Colson leading the way. He finished with 103 yards on the ground on 19 carries. UIW generated 301 rushing yards on an astounding 59 carries. They also did a great job staying ahead of the chains and limiting negative plays, only losing one yard on rushing plays for the game.

Who Were The Most Dominant Teams In Week 5?

In this section, we will highlight the teams that were the most dominant in success rate margin. This will highlight which teams truly dominated, even if the final score hides what really happened. Games against non-Division I opponents were excluded.

• Presbyterian (Net SR: 43.8%)
• Stony Brook (Net SR: 28%)
• North Dakota State (Net SR: 26.9%)
• South Dakota State (Net SR: 24.3%)
• Alabama State (Net SR: 23.6%)
• Northern Arizona (Net SR: 20.2%)
• UC Davis (Net SR: 20.2%)

Presbyterian moved to 5-0 with the most dominant win of the weekend. They absolutely crushed Morehead State with a 72% success rate, the best offensive performance of any Division I team this weekend. The Blue Hose averaged 8.9 yards per play, while allowing only 3.9 yards per play defensively. Their top two running backs combined for 264 yards on 19 carries, averaging an insane 13.9 yards per carry.

Stony Brook got off the mat with a 35-10 win over a feisty Merrimack team. The rushing attack was dominant behind quarterback Chris Zellous and All-American running back Roland Dempster. The duo combined for 231 yards on 36 carries for 6.4 yards per carry. The defense generated nine tackles for loss, holding Merrimack's offense to 223 total yards and 3.2 yards per play.

North Dakota State showed complete dominance against South Dakota in a 51-13 victory that was never even close. The Bison scored a touchdown on all five drives in the first half, while scoring 45 points on its first seven drives (Only had 9 total drives) for an incredible 6.43 points per drive. Cole Payton was flawless with an adjusted completion percentage of 88.2% and had six big-time throws in only 18 attempts. A big-time throw rate of 12-15% would usually lead the country. Payton had an insane big-time throw rate of 33%. On throws of 10 yards or more, Payton completed 7-of-9 attempts for 212 yards, which is good for 23.6 yards per attempt.

South Dakota State prepared for a big matchup next week with a crisp 51-7 win over Mercyhurst. The defense had a great showing, only allowing three drives over three plays. They held the Lakers to 3.8 yards per play and 154 total yards. The South Dakota State rushing attack struggled a bit, averaging only 3.4 yards per carry, but quarterback Chase Mason was on point. Mason went for 321 passing yards on over 11 yards per attempt and three touchdowns.

Alabama State dominated Florida A&M in high-leverage situations on Saturday en route to a 42-14 win in Bragg Memorial Stadium. The Hornets converted on 8-of-12 third-down attempts and their only fourth-down attempt. Meanwhile, Florida A&M has four of its drives stopped on fourth down, going 1-of-5 on those attempts. Alabama State dominated on the ground, averaging 7.1 yards per carry and posting four rushing touchdowns.

Northern Arizona opened conference play with a 31-17 win over Portland State. However, the success rate shows this game was not as close as it seems with the final score. Portland State had a third-quarter punt return for a touchdown, while NAU kept it pretty vanilla in a low-possession game. The Lumberjacks scored on all their first-half possessions, good for six points per drive, before taking their foot off the gas in the second half.

UC Davis put in a workmanlike performance in a 34-12 win over Weber State. The Aggies outplayed the Wildcats in every aspect of the game, resulting in a dominant performance. They averaged 7.1 yards per play, while Weber State only managed 4.7 yards per play. The UC Davis pass catchers were dominant after the catch with 204 yards after catch (YAC). Samuel Gbatu Jr. led the way with 62 YAC, while tight end Ian Simpson had 50 YAC. The defense had an excellent weekend, led by defensive end Jacob Psyk, who had 3.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.

Which Games Conflicted With Success Rate?

Each week, this section will highlight teams that won the success rate battle but still lost the game. They outperformed their opponent down-to-down, but lost because of turnovers, penalties, special teams, or explosive plays.

• Lamar 35, Central Arkansas 32 (UCA 49.4%, Lamar 36%)
• Charleston Southern 31, South Carolina State 24 (SCSU 48.6%, CSU 40.4%)
• Lehigh 44, Penn 30 (Penn 48.3%, Lehigh 46.8%)
• Towson 26, Bryant 24 (Bryant 47.8%, Towson 44.3%)
• Mercer 38, ETSU 34 (ETSU 47.4%, Mercer 46.5%)

Lamar found a way to win, adding to an already excellent start to the season, even with being one of the worst offenses in the country. The Cardinals took advantage of three turnovers from Central Arkansas despite only generating 293 total yards, compared to over 500 from Central Arkansas.

Charleston Southern recovered three fumbles, including a 63-yard defensive touchdown right before halftime. The Buccaneers put together scoring drives on their first two drives, along with the final two drives of the game. They struggled offensively the rest of the game with four 3-and-outs. South Carolina State had 255 rushing yards at over five yards per carry, but still fell short.

Lehigh and Penn played one of the most entertaining games of the season in a 44-30 shootout. The Mountain Hawks took advantage of three turnovers, while also capitalizing on some explosive plays offensively. Lehigh finished with 539 total yards on 7.1 yards per play. Luke Yoder and Jaden Green had five carries of 15 yards or more, combining for 268 yards on 6.9 yards per carry and two scores. Jared Richardson was excellent for Penn, collecting 12 catches on 15 targets for 141 yards and two touchdowns.

Towson found a way to escape with four field goals; three of those came on drives of 30 yards or less. Bryant averaged 5.2 yards per play, outpacing Towson's 4.3, but two turnovers made the difference in this one. Towson scored 10 points off Bryant turnovers and added another three points off a turnover on downs in the fourth quarter.

Mercer picked up a huge conference win over ETSU in a game that could swing the SoCon title race. The Bears outscored ETSU by 14 points in the second half after allowing 27 first-half points. The Bucs had three turnovers on six second-half drives, killing their chances of winning the game. The rushing attack was dominant for Mercer, generating 234 yards on 44 carries. CJ Miller was outstanding with 172 yards and two touchdowns on 5.9 yards per carry. Andrew Zock was dominant again, leading the team with three tackles for loss and two sacks.

Fun Fact: The closest success rate battles of the week were Princeton (52.1%) vs Lafayette (52.2%) and Dartmouth (51.4%) vs Central Connecticut State (52.3%).