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Best Case, Worst Case, Most Likely: Virginia's 2025 Outlook

Originally posted on Virginia Cavaliers on SI
By Alex Plonski | Last updated Jun 22, 2025 10:08 AM ET

This is Year Four of the Tony Elliott era, and there are no more safety nets.

Virginia is 11–23 under Elliott. They haven’t reached a bowl game. They haven’t beaten Virginia Tech since 2019. And while the program has rebuilt its roster through the transfer portal, progress on the field remains painfully slow.

The Cavaliers lost nine one-possession games over the last three seasons, including three by a single score during their 0–5 start in 2023. Last year’s 3–9 campaign included home losses to SMU and NC State and another blowout in Blacksburg.

Still, the ingredients for a turnaround exist: a manageable schedule (ESPN’s FPI ranks it 83rd nationally, lowest among Power Four teams), a proven quarterback in Chandler Morris, and the second-largest transfer haul in the ACC.

Here’s what a dream season, a realistic season, and a worst-case season could look like in Charlottesville.

Best Case: 9–3 and a Breakthrough

Virginia hits the portal jackpot. Morris, who ranked top five nationally in both passing yards (3,774) and touchdowns (31) at North Texas in 2024, brings consistency for a year to a position that’s lacked it since Armstrong’s breakout. The offense finally looks functional, with J’Mari Taylor—a 1,146-yard, 15-TD rusher at NC Central—emerging as a feature back.

The wide receiver group, even after losing Malachi Fields to Notre Dame, is explosive. Jahmal Edrine, Jayden Thomas, and Trell Harris give Morris legitimate targets downfield. The offensive line survives the loss of Mills thanks to Kevin Wigenton II, Wallace Unamba, and Noah Josey holding things together.

On defense, Kam Robinson plays like an All-ACC linebacker. Mitchell Melton and Cazeem Moore give the front seven a pulse, and Devin Neal and Antonio Clary anchor a secondary that remains competitive even without a fully healthy Jam Jackson.

Virginia capitalizes on a light schedule: No Clemson, no Miami, no SMU. Key wins at Stanford, combined with a home victory over Cal, push them to nine wins.

Key Stats in This Scenario:

Offensive line allows <30 sacks (down from 47 in 2024)

Morris throws for 3,200+ yards, fewer than 10 INTs

Defense reaches 30+ sacks (up from 19 last year)

The rebuild finally pays off. Morris gets NFL looks. Elliott secures an extension. UVA finishes second in the ACC. This brings hope for the future seasons.

Most Likely: 6–6 and a Bowl Appearance

This is the most reasonable outcome—and the one Virginia fans should probably expect.

Chandler Morris doesn’t light the ACC on fire, but he’s competent. He throws for somewhere around 2,800 yards, keeps the interceptions under control, and brings a steady presence UVA hasn’t had under center in years. The offense, while still inconsistent, moves the ball, avoids back-breaking mistakes, and puts up enough points to stay in games.

The run game takes a modest step forward. NC Central transfer J’Mari Taylor shows flashes of explosiveness, but the offensive line—now missing Monroe Mills—limits just how much damage he can do. Still, between Taylor, Perris Jones, and a more mobile quarterback, Virginia finds a few ways to grind out yards when it matters.

Defensively, it's more of the same. The front seven generates some pressure, thanks to transfer additions like Mitchell Melton and Cazeem Moore. Kam Robinson continues to be the heart of the unit. The secondary, held together by safeties Devin Neal and Antonio Clary, does just enough to avoid collapse—though there are still plenty of shaky moments in coverage.

UVA handles the layups—Coastal Carolina, William & Mary, Washington State. They split the toss-ups and steal one they shouldn’t. There’s no dominant win, but no disaster either.

Worst Case: 3–9 and Another Rebuild

Morris struggles—or gets hurt. The line collapses without Mills, allowing over 40 sacks again. The run game disappears, and Virginia continues to rank near the bottom in rushing efficiency.

The defense can’t cover or generate pressure. Opponents score over 30 points per game. Injuries pile up. Jackson never returns to form. Even the 50/50 games turn into losses. Wake Forest, Coastal Carolina, Cal—gone. By Halloween, the season’s lost.

Key Stats in This Scenario:

Offensive line allows 40+ sacks

UVA loses 4+ one-possession games

Defense ranks bottom 5 in the ACC in yards per play

No progress. No stability. Elliott is out by December, and Virginia starts over again.

The Bottom Line

Virginia isn’t built to win the ACC. That’s not what this season is about. But for once, the opportunity is there. The quarterback is experienced. The roster is deeper. The schedule opens a door this program rarely gets to walk through.

It’s not a perfect team—far from it. The offensive line has question marks. The defense still needs to prove it can get off the field. But compared to the last few years, this is progress.

That’s what 2025 has to be: a year where Virginia makes the most of what it has. Six wins. A bowl game. Something to show for all the turnover, all the effort, and all the waiting. If they miss that mark again, it’s hard to argue the foundation is working.

This article first appeared on Virginia Cavaliers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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