Boiler Banter: What Are Realistic Expectations For Purdue Football in 2025?

Barry Odom confidently walked to center court at Mackey Arena on Friday, Jan. 31, when the Purdue men's basketball team hosted Indiana. Less than two months after accepting the job as the next football coach in West Lafayette, Odom made a promise to a sellout crowd.

"We're going to get Purdue football back to the winning ways," Odom said, igniting cheers from the Mackey Arena crowd. "We're gonna win, we're gonna win now, and we're gonna win big."

Purdue fans may have bought into Odom's message on that cold January evening, but the folks at FanDuel certainly did not — at least not in his first season. An over/under was recently set at 3.5 wins for the Boilermakers in 2025, tied for the lowest projection in the Big Ten (Northwestern).

Is that a disrespectful projection? Is it possibly too high? Or is it exactly where it should be as prepares for the upcoming season?

Purdue football lives in a world of unknowns

Let's be honest, it's going to be really difficult to predict what Purdue's 2025 season is going to look like. This is a roster constructed of more than 50 transfer players and 15 incoming freshmen. Not only is this program ushering in a new staff, it's going to have an entirely new team.

Several of Purdue's top players from last season — safety Dillon Thieneman, defensive end Will Heldt, tight end Max Klare, and linebacker Yanni Karlafits — left the program and have found new homes. The biggest win of the offseason was keeping star running back Devin Mockobee, who has piled up 2,466 yards and 21 total touchdowns in three years.

Additionally, Purdue may have exited spring practice with more questions than answers. Twenty-nine more players entered the transfer portal following the conclusion of spring ball. Key tight end George Burhenn sustained an injury during a scrimmage segment, though he should be ready when the season kicks off in August.

Most importantly, the Boilers finished spring camp without a clear-cut No. 1 at the quarterback position. The good news? Ryan Browne returned to West Lafayette in the spring after a brief stop at North Carolina. He'll bring some experience back to Purdue and will compete with Malachi Singleton, Evans Chuba and Bennett Meredith for the starting job.

Another daunting schedule

Just getting a group of nearly 70 newcomers to jell is enough of a challenge for Odom and his staff in their first season at Purdue. But the Boilers will also face a difficult schedule again in 2025.

Nine of Purdue's 12 opponents appeared in a bowl game at the conclusion of the 2024 season. Three of those teams — Indiana, Notre Dame, and Ohio State — were included in the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes defeated the Fighting Irish in the National Championship Game.

The Boilermakers will play six teams that won at least eight games one year ago. Illinois, Indiana, Notre Dame, and Ohio State all hit double-digit win totals.

Per College Football News, Purdue's schedule ranks as the 11th-toughest nationally and third in the Big Ten. It's not exactly a walk in the park for the Boilermakers in 2025.

What's a realistic expectation for Barry Odom in Year 1?

Considering the unknowns with Purdue's roster and facing a top-15 schedule, what is a realistic expectation for the Boilermakers in Odom's first year at the helm?

Purdue should be able to win its first two games of 2025, hosting Ball State (Aug. 31) and Southern Illinois (Sept. 6) to start the year. After that, though, it becomes challenging to find another game the Boilermakers "should win" on the schedule.

The best opportunity to pick up wins comes in a stretch from Oct. 11-25, when Purdue will play Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers. The Boilers also have a chance to steal a win on Nov. 15 against Washington.

If Purdue can pull out wins in two of those games, it will win more than the 3.5 total projected by FanDuel. If the Boilers can only win one, it's hard to see another victory on the schedule.

But wins and losses shouldn't be the primary focus for Purdue in 2025 — and yes, I understand how important the record is in college football. After such a dreadful 2024 campaign, competitiveness should be the expectation in Odom's first season.

Purdue was humiliated too many times last season, and many outcomes were determined before the opening kickoff. If Odom can have the Boilers competing at a higher level, it's a major step in the right direction.

Because of all the changes since December, it's hard to nail down an exact win total for the upcoming season. That's why, in my opinion, if Purdue hits four wins and shows a more competitive nature every week, it will be considered a successful year in West Lafayette.