Breaking Down Arizona State's FPI Ranking

A massive 2024 season saw the Arizona State football program win the Big 12 conference in their inaugural season in the league - which in turn clinched a berth in the College Football Playoff - all in the second season of Kenny Dillingham's tenure.

The Sun Devils trekked through much of the season decidedly in underdog status - including in the Big 12 title game in which ESPN's FPI model labeled the team as underdogs against Iowa State, and gave them less than a 20% chance to take Texas down in the Peach Bowl

Now, the program is receiving more respect, but perhaps not enough all around.

Arizona State is currently ranked number 21 in the inaugural 2025 ESPN FPI rankings- the computer-based metrics system that compares teams to what is considered an average FBS program.

A breakdown of the Sun Devils' profile going into the season

Expected Wins/Losses: 8.3-3.9

Win Out %: 1.2%

6 Wins: 90.9%

Win Conference: 13%

Make Playoff: 16.1%

Win National Title: 0.2%

The 8.3 win figure is in the same vicinity of the season record prediction from Arizona State on SI - where the team was projected to finish with a 10-2 record - read more here.

It seems as if the model is fairly certain that the Sun Devils will be a good team in 2025, but just short of a potentially great one.

It ultimately feels as if the disrespect begins with the chances to win the Big 12 - a 13% chance to repeat as champions looks solid at the surface, especially with a conference that should be collectively better this season - but it simply is too low.

The Sun Devils are returning nearly 80% of starting players from last season, including Heisman trophy and Biletnikoff Trophy contenders. The defense will look to improve behind an influx of transfer portal talent, edge rusher Prince Dorbah returning in better health, and Brian Ward's continuous maximization of his defenses.

Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and other perceived Big 12 contenders deserve respect - any one of them could absolutely steal the conference crown, but for now Arizona State deserves requisite respect.

Read more about how Dillingham and the program as a whole are transforming the city of Tempe into a place thar recruits are actively seeking out here.

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