Breaking Down Big Ten Football in Tiers

College football is a tiered sport. There are haves, some have-nots, and most teams in the murky middle.

Those 5-7, 6-6 teams strive for that all-time season, when breaks go their way and so do the calls.

College football hierarchy tends to be structured and somewhat predictable. Dynasties such as Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Notre Dame — and Nebraska, back in the day — don’t fade away. They bounce back from a dreadful 8-4 season with vigor and vengeance.

Sure, teams like Michigan and LSU last year — and USC recently — can slide back into the pack. But it’s almost guaranteed the decline won’t last long. They are *programs* first. They know greatness is right around the corner. It always has been that way.

The Big Ten long has had a two-team tiered system. It’s been Ohio State and Michigan … then the others. Penn State has been on the brink of championship-level success, held back by an inability to consistently defeat Ohio State and Michigan.

As we get closer to the 2025 season, here are the Big Ten tiers, as we see them. The tiers are primarily based on 2025, but with an eye toward each program’s history and stature. We will publish Nebraska’s place in this tier system tomorrow.

Tier 1 (with 2024 record in parenthesis)

Ohio State (14-2)

Until further notice — or until the Buckeyes play Michigan in November — OSU is the beast of the B1G. The Buckeyes won a national championship in 2024, with two losses.

As always, Ohio State is more of a reload team, not rebuild. The Buckeyes will start an inexperienced quarterback in redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, who transferred from Alabama.

While most teams might struggle with a young quarterback, the Buckeyes have more than enough talent around him to compensate.

They appear headed for more success, not less.

Tier 2

Michigan (8-5)

This season is a true test for second-year coach Sherrone Moore. He has the nation’s top recruit in freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. The defense will be solid, as usual. The running game will be emphasized, fueled by the offensive line.

The Wolverines, the 2023 national champions, have beaten rival Ohio State four consecutive times, with this year’s game in Ann Arbor. Thinking this game will mean something more than a great rivalry.

Oregon (13-1)

The Ducks won the Big Ten championship in 2024 but were destroyed by Ohio State in the College Football Playoff. Dan Lanning has build a powerhouse in Eugene. The Ducks remain a fast and flashy team but there has been major emphasis on both lines and toughness. Oregon is more likely to remain in Tier 2, or move to Tier 1, than fall to Tier 3.

Penn State (13-3)

The Nittany Lions are primed for more success after their run to the CFP semifinals. Their schedule is not burdensome — Oregon at home; at Ohio State; no Michigan. They have an experienced quarterback in Drew Allar, and outstanding running backs in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. As always, expect the PSU defense to be stout and unyielding.

Tier 3

Washington (6-7)

The Huskies are two years removed from an appearance in the national title game. This lofty placement is based more on past practices, than last year’s results. The Huskies will be back, sooner rather than later.

USC (7-6)

The Trojans suffered through a difficult first season in the Big Ten. Can’t imagine USC being down for too long, despite a Big Ten schedule that is more treacherous than a Pac-12 schedule.

Iowa (8-5)

This is where Iowa is, year after year — close enough to huge success but not getting there. The Hawkeyes were in the Big Ten title game in 2021 and 2023. But the Big Ten has changed, with more talented programs capable of leaving the Hawkeyes behind.

Illinois (10-3)

The Illini had a terrific 2024 season, losing only to Penn State, Oregon and Minnesota. Can coach Bret Bielema turn this great season into sustained success?

Tier 4

Wisconsin (5-7)

The Badgers are a borderline Tier 3 team. The Badgers closed their season with losses to Penn State, Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska and Minnesota. Ouch. Wisconsin is a traditional power in the Big Ten. Coach Luke Fickell has the resources to bring the Badgers back.

Indiana (11-2)

Prove it beyond one year. Period. The Hoosiers were blessed with a soft schedule and a truckload of transfers for first-year coach Curt Cignetti in 2024, and they parlayed that into one of IU’s best seasons in history.

Minnesota (8-5)

The Golden Gophers are close to Tier 3 status, with winning records in three of the last four years. Every year, Minnesota seems to pull off an improbable victory. If the Gophers consistently win, along with pulling off an upset here and there, look for them to move up.

Michigan State (5-7)

Sparty has endured three consecutive losing seasons since an 11-2 mark in 2021 that included a 31-13 Peach Bowl victory over Pitt. Second-year coach Jonathan Smith is starting to win recruiting battles, a huge step for a program accustomed to winning.

Tier 5

UCLA (5-7)

Rebuilding is the key word for the Bruins. UCLA won four of its final six games in 2024, a good start for a rebirth. We’ll see if UCLA’s first year in the Big Ten was a bad season or the beginning of a bad trend. Top to bottom, there aren’t many easy games in the Big Ten.

Northwestern (4-8)

You can always count on the Wildcats to play competitive, hard-nosed football, despite the fact they usually are at a talent disadvantage. And every now and then, the Wildcats put together a remarkable, memorable season. For sustained success, the Wildcats need consistency. In 2023, Northwestern was 8-5.

Rutgers (7-6)

The Scarlet Knights, as always, need to recruit better in their home state of New Jersey. There is plenty of talent there, and Rutgers needs to land some of those top players.

Maryland (4-8)

The Terrapins lost seven of their last eight games in 2024, wiping out a 3-1 start. Interestingly, their only win in that losing stretch was over USC, 29-28.

Purdue (1-11)

Well, the Boilermakers are terrific in basketball. They have a long road back to .500 and now they have their biggest rival, Indiana, making noise in football.

Tune in tomorrow to see where Nebraska fits in this picture and why.

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