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Bryce Underwood continues his ascent, other game predictions for Michigan vs. Michigan State

Originally posted on Michigan Wolverines on SI
By Trent Knoop | Last updated Oct 24, 2025 2:00 PM ET

Michigan will enter East Lansing as a two-touchdown favorite over rival Michigan State. The Wolverines are seeking their fourth win in a row over the Spartans, and it's also the fourth year in a row the game will be played under the lights.

Ahead of Saturday's showdown between the bitter rivals, here are a few game predictions.

1. Michigan rushes for 225-plus against MSU

Michigan has surpassed that number two times: CMU and Nebraska. While 225 yards is a hefty number, Michigan has gone back to its roots and it was a vintage performance by the Wolverines last weekend against Washington. Michigan used its physicality and RB Jordan Marshall had a nice game, running for 133 yards.

The MSU defense is not good, but its run defense is the best thing it has going for it. The Spartans are 11th in the Big Ten, allowing 131 yards per game on the ground. However, that number is a bit deceiving after only allowing 29 yards to Youngstown State and 67 to Boston College -- a game in which BC threw the ball all over the field.

I'm not sure if Justice Haynes is playing this weekend, but I expect a big day from the Wolverines on the ground this weekend with or without their star RB.

2. Michigan converts over 50% of its third-down tries

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The Wolverines don't have too many issues moving the ball, but once Michigan faces a third down -- it's in trouble. Michigan is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten at converting third-down attempts -- even worse when it gets to fourth down.

But luckily for the Wolverines, MSU is 17th in the Big Ten, allowing the opposition to convert third-down tries. The Spartans allow teams to convert over 45% of the attempts, and against both USC and Indiana, that number rose to over 62%.

The Wolverines have been outward sharing that they need to improve on the third in short. I expect Michigan to play physical and get tough yards up the middle against MSU, resulting in successful third-down tries.

3. Bryce Underwood throws two TD passes

Through seven games, Bryce Underwood has seven TD passes to his name, and has thrown more than 1 TD in a game in the last two games against USC and Washington. I like for that to continue this weekend against a struggling MSU secondary.

Michigan State is 17th in the Big Ten, allowing 251 yards per game through the air. Not only should Underwood have a chance to throw all over MSU this weekend, but the Spartans have allowed the Big Ten worst 17 TD passes thrown against them.

Out of the seven games MSU played, it has allowed at least two TD passes in five games. Both Andrew Marsh and Donaven McCulley have a chance to make a statement, as do the TEs -- whoever it is that plays this week.

This article first appeared on Michigan Wolverines on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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