Cal Football Game Summary: Bears Lose to Duke

KEY PLAY 2: Cal running back Kendrick Raphael scored a touchdown on a 5-yard run, giving Cal a 14-0 lead with 5:20 remaining in the first quarter. Sagapolutele had completions of 29 yards to Trond Grizzell and 22 yards to Jordan King during the 55-yard drive. Sagapolutele was 10-for-11 for 122 yards and a touchdown at that point. The one incompletion was a pass he threw away to avoid a sack.

KEY PLAY 3: Duke’s Nate Sheppard scored a touchdown on a 12-yard run to reduce the Cal lead to 14-7 with 2:38 remaining in the opening quarter. Sheppard’s run completed a 77-yard drive.

KEY PLAY 4: Cal’s Kendrick Raphael scored on a 4-yard touchdown run to increases the Bears’ lead to 21-7 with 12:17 to go in the second quarter. Sagapolutele’s 30-yard completion to Jacob De Jesus was the big play on the drive.

KEY PLAY 5: Duke’s Anderson Castle scored a touchdown on a 2-yard run to finish off a 55-yard drive and reduce Cal’s lead to 21-14 with 7:47 left in the second quarter.

KEY PLAY 6: On a first-down play from the Duke 46-yard line, Sagapolutele threw a pass that was intercepted by Duke’s Andrew Pellicciotta at the 14-yard line and returned 45 yards to the Cal 41-yard line with 6:59 left in the first half. A Duke holding penalty on the return moved the ball back to the Duke 38-yard line.

KEY PLAY 7: Duke’s Darian Mensah threw a 26-yard touchdown pass to Que’Sean Brown to tie the score at 21-21 with 5:50 to go in the first half. Mensah had a 33-yard completion to Landen King earlier in that possession.

KEY PLAY 8: Duke’s Anderson Castle scored a touchdown on a 1-yard run to put the Blue Devils ahead 28-21 with 1:10 remaining in the first half.  Duke’s drive started at the Cal 38-yard line after the Blue Devils had sacked Sagapolutele on consecutive plays, forcing Cal to punt from its 13-yard line and giving the Blue Devils good field position.

KEY PLAY 9:  Duke kicker Todd Pelino booted a 25-yard field goal on the final play of the first half to increase the Blue Devils’ lead to 31-21.

KEY PLAY 10:  On a second-and-10 play from the Cal 47-yard line, Sagapolutele threw a pass that was intercepted by Duke's Chandler Rivers at the Duke 41-yard line with 10:07 remaining in the third quarter.

KEY PLAY 11:  Darian Mensah threw a 10-yard touchdown pass to Cooper Barkate to give Duke a 38-21 lead with 8:22 remaining in the fourth quarter. Duke's Jaquez Moore ran 32 yards to the Cal 13-yard line to set up the score.

KEY PLAY 12: Duke's Nate Sheppard ran 46 yards for a touchdown that gave the Blue Devils a 45-21 lead with 5:50 left in the game.

STAT OF THE GAME:  Duke sacked Cal quarterbacks six times, the most sacks Cal has allowed this season.

STAT OF THE GAME II: Cal turned the ball over four times, and Duke did not commit a turnover. All of Cal's turnovers came on Duke interceptions.

STAT OF THE GAME III: Duke recorded 13 tackles for loss for minus-52 yards.

INDIVIDUAL STAT OF THE GAME:  Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele completed his first nine passes and was 13-for-16 for 168 yards and a touchdown with no sacks when he came up limping after being hit on a scramble midway through the second quarter. After that he was 7-for-15 for 77 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions and six sacks. Cal led 21-7 by the time he attempted his 17th pass and the Bears didn't score again..

INDIVIDUAL STAT OF THE GAME II: Duke receiver Que'Sean Brown had six receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown.

INDIVIDUAL STAT OF THE GAME III: Duke defensive end Wesley Williams had 3.5 tackles for loss.

QUARTERBACK STATISTICS: Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was 20-for-31 for 245 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Cal's Devin Brown was 0-for-1. Duke’s Darian Mensah was 22-for-30 for 265 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

WHAT IT MEANS: Any thoughts that Cal could compete for a conference title took a major hit. At 4-2, the Bears still could finish with a winning record for the first time since 2019, and they have a chance to wind up with a conference record of .500 or better for the first time since 2009. Cal’s four-point win over Boston College last week looks less impressive now after Boston College lost to Pitt 48-7 on Saturday. Cal lost as an underdog for the first time this season. The Bears are now 3-1 this season when their opponent was the betting favorite as Duke was on Saturday.

CAL'S BOWL BAROMETER: Cal still has 65% chance of landing a bowl berth for the third straight year. Cal needs to win two of its final six games to become bowl-eligible, and there are a number of possible wins remaining on the Bears’ schedule. Heading into this weekend, the ESPN College Football Power Index gave Cal an 85.9% chance of winning the six games needed to gain bowl-eligibility. That will decrease a bit after this loss. Earlier this week, every reputable site that does bowl projections predicted Cal will be in a bowl. The Bears are still likely to be projected to land in a bowl game this week despite the loss.

CAL’S ACC TITLE BAROMETER: After dropping to 1-1 in the conference, Cal’s chance of winning the conference title stands at about 5%, and its chance of reaching the conference title game is about 8%. Cal’s remaining ACC schedule is favorable. The only currently ranked team left on the Bears’ schedule is No. 24 Virginia (5-1, 3-0 ACC). Cal does not play Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami or Clemson this season. Heading into Saturday’s action, the ESPN College Football Power Index gave Cal a 0.4% chance of winning the ACC championship, and losing Saturday probably reduces that chance further. Cal was picked to finish 15th in the 17-team ACC in the preseason media poll.

JUSTIN WILCOX’S HOT SEAT READING: Wilcox’s seat got a little warmer after the Bears’ second loss in the past three games, but his seat remains relatively cool for now. Since the Bears’ 3-0 start, their only win in the past three games came last week at Boston College when Cal staved off defeat with Luke Ferrelli’s interception in the end zone with 15 seconds left, preserving a 28-24 victory. The bottom line is Cal is 4-2, not a record that puts a Cal coach’s job in jeopardy. Wilcox’s contract runs through the 2027 season.

FINAL NOTE: Cal chancellor Rich Lyons rode a bicycle onto the field to lead the Cal team out of the tunnel and onto the field just before the kickoff against Duke. Oski rode a bicycle in front of him.

NEXT GAME: Cal (4-2, 1-1) vs. North Carolina (2-3, 0-1 ACC) at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, on Friday, October 17. Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. TV: ESPN. Cal has a bye next weekend, then will face North Carolina in two weeks. The Tar Heels played without injured starting quarterback Gio Lopez on Saturday when they lost at home to Clemson 38-10. North Carolina also has a bye next weekend before traveling across the country to face Cal in two weeks in a Friday night game.