Can Dan Mullen Save His Job With the Florida Gators?

The blowout, 40-17 loss to a rebuilding South Carolina team could have sealed Mullen's fate with an impatient athletic director. The sloppy, 70-52 comeback victory against FCS Samford this past Saturday to follow the Gamecocks loss may have led to Mullen's dismissal from another SEC program considering the standards around the conference. His press conference and public relations snafus over the past year haven't helped his case, either.

Look no further than Mullen's "Pack the Swamp" comments from the 2020 Texas A&M loss, his $25,000 fine for violating sportsmanship bylaws in the 2020 Missouri matchup, the active one-year show-cause for recruiting and compliance violations, calling Florida's Cotton Bowl participants "scout team guys," blocking out media after the Georgia loss this year, and catching flak for mistakenly saying Florida was would "do recruiting after the season," even though his quote was taken out of context just over two weeks ago.

Yet, Mullen is still in Gainesville, with two games left in the 2021 season to prove his worth to athletic director Scott Stricklin, Florida's athletic administration, boosters, and fans.

Stricklin, in particular, will have plenty of factors to mull over in determining the direction of Florida football.

Should Stricklin stick with Mullen, which would seemingly require a strong finish to the 2021 season and perhaps a bowl game berth, he'll likely tie himself to Mullen's fate.

Keeping Mullen around rather than looking for a new head coach would require hiring a new defensive coordinator and offensive line coach, as well as extending the contracts of four assistants on expiring contracts or hiring their replacements as well. The combined 2021 salaries for those six coaches was $4.2 million.

Say Stricklin hires a batch of new coaches or reach extensions with current assistants, yet, it remains clear that Mullen won't win championships at Florida a year from now. The cost to buy those coaches out of their contracts, and of course, Mullen's $12 million release, would be much greater with fresh deals than to allow contracts to expire and dismiss Mullen this year. 

It would create a debt that boosters won't be happy to front, particularly if they'd like to move on from Mullen currently. At that point, wholesale changes could be called for across the athletic department, sending both Mullen and Stricklin packing. 

Whereas, Stricklin could buy himself some job security by pursuing a new head coach instead, earning a few years to work with a new leader of the football program and to enjoy the benefits of the $85 million Heavener Football Training Facility that he has helped construct, rather than grasp onto a position that hinges on the success of the coach he decided to stand by.

These are factors that Stricklin must consider before the season ends and the movement of college head coaches enters full swing. In that time, Mullen has a chance to show Stricklin that not all is lost.

But, one must ask, how much can Mullen truly prove by defeating a 5-5 Missouri team and a 4-6 Florida State program? Keep in mind, a decision would need to be made before the Gators' potential bowl game for 2022 recruiting purposes.

Winning those games wouldn't change the fact that Florida's roster is missing significant star power and adequate depth. Remember, the Gators' No. 22 recruiting class ranking for this cycle is their worst under Mullen by a wide margin - nothing suggests that the roster will be in better shape next season than it is now other than trust in Mullen's development plan for his players.

The same plan that's led Florida to a 5-5 record this year.

Losing one of if not both of these games would be far more telling than ending the regular season on a three-game winning streak over what are supposed to be inferior programs to Florida, at least in recent years. It would, as pointed out in other losses, showcase Florida's struggles to recruit talent under Mullen and prove that game-planning is far from the only element that can win football games in the SEC.

Even if Mullen and the Gators find a way to win out before the season concludes, it will be a tough sell to keep the head coach around given the team's struggles this season and in recruiting talent over the convenience of starting fresh. 

Yet, Florida appears willing to at least offer Mullen a chance to recite his pitch.

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