Can Winless Notre Dame Reach the College Football Playoff?

A three-loss Irish team, without a conference championship to ensure its spot, would be hard-pressed to earn a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff field. The only three-loss team to make the playoff last season was ACC champion Clemson. Miami, which went 10-2, was left out along with 9-3 candidates such as Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina.

The rest of Notre Dame’s schedule also isn’t particularly impressive with just one remaining game against a ranked team (No. 25 USC). Things are looking grim for the Irish, but not all hope is lost, considering they won 13 in a row just last season.

So, what are the chances Notre Dame can do it all over again? Athlon Sports writers Steven Lassan and Kyle Wood weigh in.

Can Notre Dame Rally to Return to the College Football Playoff?

Steven Lassan: There’s no shame in losing to Miami and Texas A&M — two top-10 teams in the Associated Press Top 25 — by a combined four points. So even at 0-2, Notre Dame is definitely not out of the College Football Playoff mix. However, I’m not optimistic that this team can run the table and get into the 12-team field. 

Through two games, it’s clear the Fighting Irish are not as strong on defense as they were last season. Freeman’s group has registered just one sack and ranks No. 107 nationally in defensive success rate — a steep drop from the No. 27 mark posted in '24. Whether it’s the rush defense, pressure, or secondary, this unit is not performing at a high level right now. Also, I think this group misses Al Golden as coordinator. New defensive signal-caller Chris Ash has a lot of work ahead to get this unit back on track.

I have more confidence in Notre Dame’s offense with quarterback CJ Carr and running back Jeremiyah Love working behind one of the nation’s top offensive lines. This unit can only get better the rest of the way, too. In his first opportunity for extended action in South Bend, Carr has been solid through two games. And the offensive line will benefit from the return of starter Charles Jagusah from injury later this year.

The schedule isn’t daunting. However, if the defense doesn’t improve, Arkansas, NC State, USC, Navy, and Pitt will have no trouble moving the ball in upcoming matchups. Also, without a marquee win or multiple victories against ranked opponents, getting to 9-3 would not be enough to make the playoff. To overcome any concern about the strength of schedule, Notre Dame needs to go 10-2 and hope Miami and Texas A&M keep winning. 

Kyle Wood: If we hadn’t seen almost this exact story unfold last season, I would be ready to all but write off the Fighting Irish as College Football Playoff contenders. But last year did happen, so I’m not ruling anything out until — or if — Notre Dame loses again.

At this point, résumé is a real concern. And as much as observers bristle at the idea of a quality loss, the Miami and Texas A&M games were just that: One-possession games against good — potentially playoff-bound — teams. But the Irish still need to win the rest of their games and hope a fringe top-25 team like NC State or Navy has a number next to its name when they play later in the year.

Notre Dame has the talent to win out. Carr has played well, and Love is an elite running back. Offense isn’t the issue. It’s defense that has doomed the Irish — after that was their calling card a season ago. Last year’s team never gave up as many points as Notre Dame did on its home field on Saturday against Texas A&M.

Even if the Irish have the ability to win shootouts, that shouldn’t be their desired result. After the NIU game last season, Notre Dame only played one one-possession game until the CFP semifinals. Style points matter when the earliest this team can be above .500 is Oct. 4.

Everything has to go according to plan for the Irish to return to the CFP. But who better to count on a little luck?

Notre Dame Remaining Schedule

Sept. 20 vs. Purdue (2-1)
Sept. 27 at Arkansas (2-1)
Oct. 4 vs. Boise State (1-1)
Oct. 11 vs. NC State (3-0)
Oct. 18 vs. No. 25 USC (3-0)
Nov. 1 at Boston College (1-2)
Nov. 8 vs. Navy (3-0)
Nov. 15 at Pittsburgh (2-1)
Nov. 22 vs. Syracuse (2-1)
Nov. 29 at Stanford (1-2)