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Nov 23, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott (right) runs onto the field with players prior to their game against the Southern Methodist Mustangs at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images Amber Searls-Imagn Images

CBS Sports Projects The Best Case and Worst Case Scenario For UVA Football In 2025

Originally posted on Virginia Cavaliers on SI
By Jackson Caudell | Last updated Jun 28, 2025 10:05 AM ET

Virginia Football has not made a bowl game in Tony Elliott's first three seasons, but based on their offseason activity, that seems to be the goal. Elliott has brought in 30 transfers this offseason and the Cavaliers have one of the most underrated transfer classes in the country and one of the top ones in the ACC. To top it all off, UVA has one of the most manageable schedules in the ACC. They avoid Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Georgia Tech this season, four teams that are projected to be among the best in the conference.

With their activity this offseason and a favorable schedule, what could be the best case scenario for the Cavaliers this season? What about the worst case? CBS Sports analyst Chip Patterson outlined what he thought were best and worst case scenarios for UVA:

"Best case 7-5: A breakthrough season for Tony Elliott rejuvenates confidence in his tenure as the Wahoos reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 2021. Virginia hit the portal hard to bring in players with some experience -- sixth-year quarterback Chandler Morris being the poster child for this -- that can help set the tone for a winning season. It also helps that the team won't face Clemson, Miami or SMU in conference play and gets five of the first seven games at home as the new additions get settled in.

Worst case 4-8: The new talent doesn't gel, Virginia drops a couple games they shouldn't early in the season and suddenly questions about the future of the program start to be a distraction as the team. The talent level is too high to see Virginia getting out-classed by this ACC schedule, but there's no guaranteed wins, either. Sometimes those tough, close losses can hurt a team's psyche just as much as a blowout."

You could make the argument that Virginia's ceiling is higher due to their schedule, but given Elliott's track record in his first three seasons and the fact that Virginia has a mostly new roster of transfers, projecting anything more than 7-5 might not be smart.

Virginia has not been bowl eligible since going 6-6 after the 2021 season, but they have not actually played in a bowl game since making the Orange Bowl in 2019 after going 9-3 and losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship.

Yes, it has been that long.

However, the 247Sports Bowl Projections do not paint a good picture for Elliott's team in 2025. Even with the schedule and the transfer class, UVA is nowhere to be seen in the projections. That would be a disappointment considering how the Cavaliers have approached this offseason.

Right now at Fanduel Sportsbook, Virginia's win total is set at 6.5, and that seems reasonable. They open the season at home against Coastal Carolina, and the Chanticleers are not supposed to be one of the better teams in the Sun Belt. A telling game this season will be in week two, when Virginia goes on the road to face NC State. The Wolfpack are always tough to beat at home, but they have lost a lot of talent this offseason and are beatable. If Virginia can win that, a bowl game should be within reach.

William & Mary plus Stanford should be gimmes for the Cavaliers and at worst, they should be 3-1 to start the season. They will be underdogs at home vs Florida State, but the Seminoles have plenty of question marks as well and could be vulnerable to an upset away from Tallahassee. It is anyone's guess as to how they look this season.

Going on the road to beat Louisville might be too tough a task, but Virginia did almost clip the Cardinals last season. After a bye week, a home game against Washington State is not super intimidating considering their roster and coaching staff turnover this offseason, and then another interesting matchup on the road at North Carolina. How the Tar Heels will look under Bill Belichick is anyone's guess.

All four November games are winnable. Cal and Wake Forest are projected to be among the worst teams in the league, though the Cal game is on the road. Duke on the road will be tough and then to finish the season, Virginia has their annual rivalry game with Virginia Tech. The path is there for Elliott and the Cavaliers to make a bowl game, but they have to prove it on the field.

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This article first appeared on Virginia Cavaliers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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