CFB Week 2 Top 25 Betting Guide

Week 1 was a light taste of college football action. We got a nice upset by Florida but for the most part things kind of played to form. 

The best thing we have is some real results to either confirm or deny our opinions or to ignore completely, like if you are an Iowa fan. 

This week is not blessed with a lot of top games but there are good values out there for sure. 

Week 2 Top 25 Betting Previews

South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks
Spread: Arkansas -8.5
Total: 52.5

Both of these teams got wins to start the season, but the Razorbacks are more battle-tested, having beaten a good Cincinnati program. South Carolina also played a G5 school but was not really pushed. Transfer QB Spencer Rattler threw a couple of interceptions in the win. For SC to have any chance of winning in the SEC he needs to be a lot better than that. At the same time, KJ Jefferson was brilliant in the Hogs' win. So far there is no reason to think there is going to be a letdown this season in Fayetteville. 

This line seems pretty fair even though -.8.5 is kind of a dead number. The Razorbacks are better defensively than what South Carolina saw in Week 1 and unless Rattler is a lot better they do not have a chance. He has to outplay Jefferson and I not going to bet on that.

Score Prediction: Arkansas 31 - South Carolina 16
Look for the Hogs to cover but a late TD by South Carolina might backdoor this one. There are better values out there. 

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Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas Longhorns
Spread: Alabama -20.5
Total: 64.5

This is one of just a couple of matchups between Top 25 teams but it is still a mismatch. Alabama was as good as advertised in its opener beating Utah State 55-0. Texas won with ease too but played a lesser team in ULM. The fact that the Longhorns are massive underdogs at home tells you most of what you need to know for this one. That number is well justified and I have to wonder if it might be some sort of a record. 

For Texas to be a home underdog by that many points is pretty wild. Whether you think Alabama is the top team in the country or not I can easily get to them being this much better than a Texas team that has a lot to prove and is using a quarterback with next to no experience. Unless you think Sark is going to provide an insider advantage from his time with Alabama, I am not seeing where the Longhorns have any advantage. 

Score Prediction: Alabama 38 - Texas 14
I feel really good about a Bama win but struggled with the score. It could be 52-21 also. 

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Vanderbilt Commodores
Spread: Vanderbilt -12.5
Total: 65.5

Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman has been cleared to play but it is not a given that he plays on Saturday. The line indicates that is likely and you have to like the chances of the Demon Deacons even though he has missed some prep time. He is a veteran player. For Vandy, a couple of early wins are better than the opposite, but after trouncing Hawaii in Week 0 they beat Elon by only 11 last week. That is a signal to stop the hype train, even if the program is on an uptick generally. 

You have to know the status of Hartman before you make a play (I am seeing questionable). If he plays the offense should be productive and they can easily win each half by a TD if not more. The 31 points the Commodores gave up against Elon last week are very concerning.

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 41 - Vanderbilt 24
Wake just has too much offense if Hartman is right. That is a lot of points to give up on the road but the line makes sense. 

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Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ohio State Buckeyes
Spread: Ohio State -44.5
Total: 68.5

Ohio State did not pummel Notre Dame the way many (including myself) expected in Week 1. The defense looked really good though, shutting the Irish out in the second half. Arkansas State is not going to be able to hold the Buckeyes to just 21 points like ND did in this one. They won and covered last week but that was against Grambling at home. ASU quarterback James Blackman started his career at Florida State. He has some talent but not enough to overcome all of the other disadvantages. 

This is a massive but well-justified line. Ohio State is home and even though their offense was not dynamic last week there is no reason to think they have lost their mojo. The Notre Dame defense is really good and OSU played without their top receiver for most of the game. It is a big number but it is still hard to look at the Ark State side. 

Score Prediction:  Ohio State 56 - Arkansas State 10
This is a lot of points to spot an opponent so there will be better values on the board even though the Buckeyes are the play.

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Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Miami Hurricanes
Spread: Miami -26.5
Total: 51.5

I like the move of Southern Miss to the Sun Belt but it is going to be a while before they can regain their status as one of those plucky upstart teams. They lost at home against Liberty in their opener, hardly a statement that puts fear in Miami. The Hurricanes were the top scoring team in the nation last week dropping 70 points on Bethune-Cookman. It was a positive indicator of where the team is going and they looked great but they have to prove it some more. This is another easy warmup for the emerging Hurricanes. 

Miami is improving in lots of areas and they should be able to score more than enough to win with ease at home on Saturday. That is a hefty number of points but Miami should be able to do what they want on both sides of the ball to get there.

Score Prediction:  Miami 52 - Southern Miss 10
This is a big number but the markets might not be up to speed on Miami just yet. There is still value there. 

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Marshall Thundering Herd at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Spread: Notre Dame -20.5
Total: 50.5

It was disappointing that ND lost their opener but few thought that game would even be close. They have a chance to avoid a disaster of a start for the new coach by getting Marshall at home, but the Thundering Herd are not a pushover. I am not saying that because Marshall beat up Norfolk State in their opener, but because the Thundering Herd generally run a tight ship. They are not as talented as Notre Dame but they are not going to beat themselves. 

Notre Dame is a heavy favorite which makes sense but it is still a little odd to see a team favored by 20 points that only scored 10 points a week ago. They should win with ease but I am not sure I am ready to assume they can win by a large margin yet.

Score Prediction: Notre Dame 27 - Marshall 10
I am not expecting Marshall to really push ND but I need more proof of concept from the Irish

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Tennessee Volunteers at Pitt Panthers
Spread: Tennessee -6.5
Total: 64.5

SEC vs ACC here with the unranked Vols favored over Pitt at home. That makes this very interesting. Tennessee looked very much a team on the rise in routing Ball State, while Pitt won the Backyard Brawl over West Virginia by a TD. They might not be the better team but they are the more tested. The question is are we sure they aren't better? Transfer QB Kedon Slovis looked good against the Mountaineers who are a legit defense. It feels like something is missing here. 

Something definitely feels off with this line to me. Pittsburgh's defense might not be where they want it so they are going to give up some points but they can score too. Slovis has the experience you need at the most important position to engineer an outright upset. Especially at home. 

Score Prediction: Pitt 31 - Tennessee 27
I love the value with the home side here. The Moneyline is appealing but the spread looks great. Definitely include in teasers if that is your thing too.

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Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Spread: Texas A&M -16
Total: 54

App State gave North Carolina all it could handle in its opener. They were definitely able to match the physicality of a Power 5 opponent and the fact that they were so strong in the 4th quarter against the Tar Heels is encouraging. Texas A&M is at another level though in terms of talent, even if they don't always play to it. Shutting out FCS Sam Houston State was a pure tune-up. They probably should have won by more even though they pitched the shutout. 

This is a tough line. There is probably some value there because even though App State pushed, they lost against UNC and that will influence the market. I am probably going to stay away but the Mountaineers are the side. They clearly won't quit and their style might shorten the game. 

Score Prediction: Texas A&M 33 - Appalachian State 26
After last week's wild game against UNC, this one will be much more staid for App State. Another good value on the underdog though.

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Washington State Cougars at Wisconsin Badgers
Spread: Wisconsin -17.5
Total: 49.5

I was optimistic about Wazzu coming into the season. There was a lot of hype about the incoming QB and offensive system but we did not see much in the opener, a ho-hum effort in a win over Idaho. It was just one game but there is concern. Meanwhile, Wisconsin ran all over Illinois State in a predictable fashion so we don't really know much about them either. Even though the Cougars did not impress I still think there could be some advantage for them stylistically. The Badgers do not play a lot of opponents who have that offense.

Wisconsin will run the ball against the Cougars, they almost always do. However, I expect Washington State to have success on offense too, and to be able to score quickly at times against a defense that the Badgers are rebuilding. This line is just too much, especially with that hook. 

Score Prediction: Wisconsin 38 - Washington State 27
The Badgers just won't be able to pull away from Washington State. 

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Akron Zips at Michigan State Spartans
Spread: Michigan State -34.5
Total: 55.5

Michigan State covered last week against Western Michigan, a better MAC team than Akron. I thought they would dominate more but you don't want to punish teams too much for Week 1 wins. At the same time, Akron needed OT to get by St. Francis PA. That is definitely not a good sign they are ready for this week at all. The spread might only be 34.5 but this is a great candidate for the largest margin between 2 FBS teams. 

This is probably the biggest spread in an MSU game this season. That doesn't mean the number is off. My only worry is that they take their foot off the gas late. Still, the Spartans are definitely the right side, even at this number. 

Score Prediction: Michigan State 45 - Akron 10
This one is ripe for a backdoor cover. Just out of lack of interest by the Spartans. 

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Kentucky Wildcats at Florida Gators
Spread: Florida -5.5
Total: 52.5

After the Florida win, this is suddenly the game of the day. Kudos to the Gators for getting the victory over Utah, but I do think we need to pump the brakes a little because while QB Anthony Richardson is a monster their defense might not be up to SEC snuff. Kentucky did not make any statements in their opener but they have a QB prospect of their own in Will Levis. He has more experience and won't be intimidated by the size of the game. 

The Gators have to be overvalued but that does not mean they are the wrong side on Saturday. The question is how much proof do you need from the new leadership. I am not quite there yet and have made money off of backing Kentucky as an underdog of late. That feels more familiar.

Score Prediction: Florida 24 - Kentucky 21
The Gators feel like the right side but needing them to win by a TD is too much to count on. 

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Kent State Golden Flashes at Oklahoma Sooners
Spread: Oklahoma -34.5
Total: 72.5

Oklahoma did what it was supposed to do in coach Brent Venables' debut, they beat up UTEP. Now they have a similar opponent and a similar result is expected. Their transfer-based backfield is looking pretty good so far. Kent State lost their opener against Washington. They were not very competitive and that is likely the case against Oklahoma too. They just couldn't get their offense on track against bigger more physical opponents. Not a good sign.

Kent State wants to play with tempo, but I don't see that working in this matchup. In fact, it might work against them. Too many short possessions will burn whatever their defense has. KSU does not have the depth to go toe to toe for any length of time.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma 54 - Kent State 10.
This one probably moves so the time is now but I am not worried unless it moves a lot. 

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Arizona State Sun Devils at Oklahoma State
Spread: Oklahoma State -11.5
Total: 57.5

Who knows what is going on at Arizona State these days. The future does not look good and an opening win over Northern Arizona did not tell us much. Hitting the road this week they are expected to lose and it will be interesting to see how things play out from there. A backfield loaded with transfers gives them a chance though. Oklahoma State scored a lot in the opener but it was different than expected as QB Spencer Sanders had his best game throwing the ball ever. The defense is nowhere near where it was last season though. 

I kind of like Arizona State in this spot. When you can't stop teams it is tough to cover large margins and I like that they can run their quarterback. ASU QB Emory Jones is an elite athlete and he gives them a chance to get out of some negative plays. If they get an early lead look-out.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 31 - Arizona State 27
Look for this one to be a tight contest throughout. OSU just makes fewer mistakes to get the W. Good value with the visitors though. 

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USC Trojans at Stanford Cardinal
Spread: USC -7.5
Total: 67.5

Just how "back" is USC? We will get a truer indicator when they head to Stanford this weekend. I have a lot of confidence in the Trojans and do not see how a Stanford team, without great speed, is going to slow them down defensively. Stanford will not make the same mistakes that Rice made last week and is going to be physical but playing Colgate is not a great prep opponent to take on USC. Stanford has given USC fits in the past with their plodding style but that was before Lincoln Riley landed out West.

It looks like the markets are trying to bait the home underdog with that hook. Don't fall for it. USC should win each half by this amount and probably isn't really challenged late. You can wait to see if we get an even 7 but USC is the play.

Score Prediction: USC 41 - Stanford 24
I am believing the hype. USC will build a lead and Stanford does not have the stuff to play catchup. 

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Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Michigan Wolverines
Spread: Michigan -51.5
Total: 57.5

After getting dominated in 2 home games to start the season it is hard to see how Hawaii does not get obliterated at the Big House. The Rainbow Warriors have been outscored 112-27 so far. Legend Timmy Chang has a long road to rebuilding the program. Michigan has only 1 game under its belt but the 51-7 victory shows they should have little problem with beating up a weak foe. Their defense is still very strong and the offense will enjoy playing against Hawaii, no matter who is under center. 

This is a massive line but that doesn't mean the fade is in play. Hawaii gave up 60+ points at home to Vanderbilt. Michigan can name the score. It is all about how interested they are going to be. UConn is next so there is no look-ahead fears.

Score Prediction: Michigan 56 - Hawaii 7
Those UH points are of the backdoor variety. I like Big Blue but don't see much value in this spot. 

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Baylor Bears at BYU Cougars
Spread: BYU -3.5
Total: 53.5

This might be the best game of the day, it is a shame we have to wait so long for it. BYU is always looking to prove they belong and this is their first shot of the year. The fact that they are home favorites shows what people are thinking about this program right now. Baylor tuned up against Albany last week so this will be their first real test of the season. On the road too in a place that is probably underrated to play. 

The Bears are always a strong underdog play because under coach Dave Aranda they do not beat themselves. They are also used to playing in hostile environments too. That hook is everything, though they could certainly win outright. 

Score Prediction: Baylor 27 - BYU 24
I will grab the points even though I like the Bears to win. 

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Matt Wiesenfeld has been handicapping games and espousing sports wisdom online for more than a decade, writing thousands of articles to help bettors understand and play the market. Matt loves to bet on, write about, and engage on MLB, the NFL, NBA, college football, and college basketball.