CFB Week 3: Top 25 Betting Guide

Last year the Dawgs won by 27 in this annual rivalry (though they failed to cover the -31.5). This number seems more than fair based on how dominant UGA looked in that opening win against Oregon. Being at home helps the Gamecocks a little but I don't see where they are going to find consistent success. 

Score Prediction:  Georgia 38 - South Carolina 10
There are going to be better values below but taking the defending champs makes sense. 

Texas State Bobcats at Baylor Bears
Spread: Baylor -29.5
Total: 52.5

Baylor has a soft landing spot after losing at BYU. There is no shame in the loss as BYU might be as good as any team in the Big 12 this season. Baylor is a big favorite for the second time this season even though we don't think about the Bears this way. Texas State is 1-1, just like Baylor, and they just clobbered FIU. Unfortunately, that says more about the Panthers than Texas State. This is a total mismatch. 

Baylor showed in its opener against Albany that it can take care of business when it is supposed to. The Bears scored 69 points against the Great Danes. They can probably cover this number by just scoring 45, which seems pretty automatic. 

Score Prediction: Baylor 45 - Texas State 10
Similar to the Georgia game above I like the side that is expected to roll. The Bears should have an even easier time.

Connecticut Huskies at Michigan Wolverines
Spread: Michigan -47.5
Total: 60.5

Michigan has been one of the most impressive teams as the Wolverines have been beating up light competition like Hawaii and Colorado State. The thing that stands out is how easy they are making it look so far, not all the top teams can say the same. The only thing you can probably say about Connecticut is that the Huskies are not as bad as Hawaii, based on the point spread for this game. They do have a win but it came against FCS Central Connecticut.

Michigan did not cover the 50+ point spread against the Rainbow Warriors. I thought they would but that was a massive number and this one is not much easier to get over. They are more than good enough to cover it but it is hard to stomach those massive lines.

Score Prediction: Michigan 49 - Connecticut 6
Michigan has figured out its QB stuff, now it is just about staying healthy for Big Ten play.  

Oklahoma Sooners at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Spread: Oklahoma -10.5
Total: 66.5

Nebraska has been in the news all season long and for all the wrong reasons. Now an old rival comes to town and they are hoping to show some growth. This is not one of the worst teams in America (it just feels like it) and it will be interesting to see how they respond. Oklahoma has no such issues to contend with but the program is not as explosive as it was under the previous regime. Or at least not yet. They should not have to be at their best to win relatively easily. 

It is hard to see how this is a close win for Oklahoma. I think they are either going to get an easy one or fall to an emotional juggernaut. I am leaning toward the former because I am not sure how Nebraska gets it going enough in such a short time.

Score Prediction: Oklahoma 38 - Nebraska 20
I am thinking this might come down a little more so maybe wait until closer to kickoff. 

Penn State Nittany Lions at Auburn Tigers
Spread: Penn State -3.5
Total:47.5

Penn State has looked pretty good so far. I like the combination of an experienced quarterback and a dynamic freshman running back; it is much better than the inverse and RB Nick Singleton gives PSU something they have been missing. Auburn is 2-0 but 0-2 ATS, a bad sign when you have played the likes of Mercer and San Jose State. They should be able to move the ball on the ground against most teams this season. 

This hook is a little annoying but I am on the side of the visitors, which is rare down in the big, bad SEC. PSU QB Sean Clifford may not be elite but he knows how not to lose again and has more around him than he did last season. PSU won at home last year even though they gave up almost 200 yards on the ground. They can do so again Saturday.

Score Prediction: Penn State 27 - Auburn 16
This is a perfect spot for a teaser. That would bring PSU down to a pick'em. 

Ole Miss Rebels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Spread: Ole Miss -16.5
Total: 62.5

Ole Miss has eased into the season with a couple of easy wins. For a team in transition at QB that has been great and this game against Georgia Tech is only a modest step up in competition. I love their offense and they have not even gotten a ton from RB Zach Evans, their most dynamic player. If you were making a bet on the next coach to get fired GT head coach Geoff Collins seems solid. They are 1-1 but have not covered in a game yet and the only advantage they have in this game is that they faced Clemson in their opener so they know what real competition looks like. It is not working for the Yellow Jackets.

When the Ole Miss offense gets cooking, the Rebels are tough to stop. GT gave up 41 points to an offensively limited Clemson team and I expect them to give up at least that many today. They do not have the firepower to keep this one close.

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 45 - Georgia Tech 17
I might look hard at the Rebels team total here. They are going to put up points. 

BYU Cougars at Oregon Ducks
Spread: Oregon -3.5
Total: 57.5

BYU has been looking good this season and this game could well determine whether they have a very special season before they head to the Big 12. I like their quarterback a lot and they are so well coached They know what they want to do and that will be an advantage against a team that is still forming under a new head coach. Oregon might not look as bad as they did against Georgia again in the next 50 years but that memory is still pretty fresh. Even dropping 70 points against FCS Eastern Washington was not enough to wash it away. 

It was enough to make the Ducks favorites at home though. That hook is the key as I envision a hard-fought game won by a late score. BYU often plays well against the PAC 12, look for them to do so again in this spot. 

Score Prediction: BYU 24 - Oregon 20
I like the upset possibilities here but the smart thing is to take the points. 

ULM Warhawks at Alabama Crimson Tide
Spread: Alabama -48.5
Total: 61.5

This one might be a bloodbath. Partly because Alabama has way more talent than ULM and also because of how bad they looked against Texas. I do think the Longhorns deserve a lot of credit but I know Nick Saban is going to kick the Crimson Tide back into dominating. This is a great measuring stick game for Alabama because ULM played Texas in the first week of the season. That game was a 52-10 final in favor of the Longhorns (who were -36.5 for that one).

This week we are looking at a number that is a lot more than the one for the Warhawks against Texas. Does that create a buying opportunity on a sinking Alabama?  Probably not. You are not going to make much money fading Saban, or backing ULM for that matter.

Scored Prediction: Alabama 56 - ULM 0
Yes, I am predicting a shutout here. 

Liberty Flames at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Spread: Wake Forest -16.5
Total: 63.5

Liberty is 2-0 but not quite the threat they have been the last couple of years with their QB now in the NFL. If they are going to stay competitive against a Power 5 program like Wake Forest they need to be better on both sides of the ball. Wake has QB Sam Hartman back and he showed little rust against Vanderbilt last week. Before we know it the Demon Deacons are going to be operating one of the best offenses in all of football, just like last year.

Wake Forest has covered in both of their games this season. Look for the to push that record to 3-0. Their offensive efficiency just puts so much pressure on opponents to keep up. They will give up a few for sure but this game is never really close.

Score Prediction: Wake Forest 41 - Liberty 16
Another good teaser opportunity even though the Demon Deacons should win easily. 

Akron Zips at Tennessee Volunteers
Spread: Tennessee -47.5
Total:66.5

Tennessee got a quality win last week at Pitt. They were helped by the Panthers coach a little though and by the fact that the Pitt QB got hurt. I like a lot of what I see with Tennessee but am still not sure where they deserve to be slotted nationally. Akron is much easier to place. This is one of the worst FBS programs. They just lost to Michigan State 52-0 and needed OT to get an FCS win in their opener. They will compete a little in the MAC, maybe. 

Is Michigan State better than Tennessee?  Maybe. Last week's spread was just -34.5 but this one is 2 TDs more. Normally I would scream buying opportunity due to a market overreaction but I think this line is probably right. That is how bad Akron is.

Score Prediction: Tennessee 49 - Akron 3
There is not much value with this mismatch. Akron is going far from home to get a similar result as last week.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at NC State Wolfpack
Spread: NC State -10.5
Total: 54.5

This one is a very intriguing matchup. Both teams are 2-0 and from power conferences so whoever wins will get a nice bump. NC State had a lot of preseason hype but has failed to impress over their first 2 games (they barely beat ECU). They are going to have to be better. A strong defense will be tested and the offense should have success. The Red Raiders have very similar results so far too, there just wasn't any excitement about the program to start the year. They can play with ease on Saturday, while it feels NC State often plays tight when they are expected to win. 

A classic line where the hook is going to invite action on the visitors. I am not buying it though. NC State is much better balanced and can win with margin. They burned me in Week 1 but I am still a believer in this team, especially on defense. 

Score Prediction: NC State 38 - Texas Tech 23
Another spot where a teaser looks great, just to avoid that hook and get it under 10. 

Toledo Rockets at Ohio State Buckeyes
Spread: Ohio State -31.5
Total: 62.5

Toledo is going to be one of the better teams in the MAC this season. They always are. They are giving up just 10 ppg but that is definitely going to be challenged by Ohio State. They do not appear to have the firepower to keep up. The Buckeyes won against Arkansas State last week but they took a hit with Notre Dame looking so pedestrian in a loss to Marshall. Their offense has not been as dynamic this season but it feels like a matter of when not if.

The Rockets are better than the Red Wolves and the line Saturday reflects that. I see a similar outcome which is another easy win. Ohio State is a little healthier than they were last week so getting enough points on the board should not be a problem.

Score Prediction: Ohio State 49 - Toledo 13
Another massive number where there is not much value on the underdog. 

USF Bulls at Florida Gators
Spread: Florida -24.5
Total: 59.5

Florida definitely came back down to earth with a home loss to Kentucky last week (called it ... haha). They are still at home and get a soft spot on their schedule to recover with the Bulls coming to town. This game will be a great barometer for where this program really is. They are by far the more talented team. USF is 1-1 with 2 ATS losses so they are not quite there in terms of progress. They are better on offense than they have been though so that might give them a chance. 

USF QB Gerry Bohanon has more big-game experience than Gators QB Anthony Richardson. There is no doubt who has the better supporting cast. Coach Billy Napier uses last week and this as teachable moments as Florida gets an easy win. The number feels pretty tight though. 

Score Prediction: Florida 38 - USF 20
There is some value with the visitors but I am not going to recommend USF until I see more from them this season. 

Pitt Panthers vs Western Michigan Broncos
Spread: Pitt -10.5
Total:47.5

I was on Pitt last week against Tennessee and still think it was the right side. They lost their QB and missed by a half point in OT. This week it is hard to have confidence in them on the road as both of their QBs are listed as questionable right now. The fact that they are favored is an indicator but there are question marks. Meanwhile, Western Michigan could be in a letdown spot after getting their first MAC win of the season last week. 

I am not comfortable backing this Pitt team on the road as a favorite, especially not needing them to win by a full two scores. WMU probably doesn't win but they are well-coached and generally feisty.

Score Prediction: Pitt 24 - Western Michigan 20
The Broncs are a nice value as a home underdog.

Michigan State Spartans at Washington Huskies
Spread: Washington -3.5
Total: 56.5

Michigan State has performed well so far but has not really been challenged this season. They are 2-0 SUATS and showing a really nice balance on offense thanks to some high-level transfers in the backfield. At Washington, they are leaning on a new coach and QB to get things turned around. So far so good as they are 2-0 SUATS as well. I am not totally sold on the offensive production we have seen so far though it is encouraging. 

I need more proof of concept for Washington so this one is an easy call on the visitors. MSU is further along in their development and I think they can get the win in what should be a physical underrated game. The points are a nice touch. 

Score Prediction:  Michigan State 30 - Washington 24
Prefer the safety of the spread but the ML is worth a sprinkle too. 

UTSA Roadrunners vs Texas Longhorns
Spread: Texas -12.5
Total: 61.5

OK Texas, time for a bit of a closeup. You got thisclose against Alabama but lost. You are still at home against a solid UTSA team. What do you got? (with your backup QB I might add). We are all curious.  As for UTSA, they have played 2 OT games to start the season, losing to Houston and beating Army. They are definitely battle-tested and could threaten if Texas is not ready for them. 

I never want to doubt UTSA. I love the way that program competes but the Texas defense really impressed me last week. As long as that was legit they should beat up the Roadrunners.

Score Prediction:  Texas 34 - UTSA 16
Texas is on the climb. I only worry that they are beaten up too much after last week. 

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Clemson Tigers
Spread: Clemson -33.5
Total: 53.5

Clemson is looking to continue to prove it is among the elite. So far it is hard to know for sure against the competition we have seen. Facing Louisiana Tech might not tell us a ton either. The Bulldogs got smacked by Mizzou and that is a team that is close to the basement in the SEC East this season. This is going to be a tough matchup.

When backing Clemson it is all about whether their offense matches their defensive prowess. I think we can get just enough in this matchup for Clemson to cover a big number but they can't give up more than 10 points. 

Score Prediction: Clemson 38 - Louisiana Tech 3
There is not a ton to work with this number in what should be an easy win.

San Diego State Aztecs vs Utah Utes
Spread: Utah -20.5
Total: 49.5

Don't you hate it when a couple of your favorite teams play against each other? I feel like these teams are very similar just Utah does it better and with more consistency. SDSU is usually strong against the PAC 12 but they lost to Arizona to start the season. Winning against Idaho State feels good but doesn't prove anything. Utah is still looking to prove they are elite after losing at Florida (a game I thought they would win). They won 73-7 last week against Southern Utah, proving little along the way. 

I did not like what I saw against Arizona but I am confident the Aztecs can compete. They are not going to threaten the Utes on the road but a couple of defensive stands keep it from getting out of control.

Score Prediction: Utah 33 - San Diego State 20
I like both teams. SDSU should be motivated to engage in a slugfest.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Spread: Texas A&M -5.5
Total:44.5

This game lost some luster with the Aggies' loss last week against App State. It was just a 3-point defeat but the game stats show they were dominated at home. They are going to have to be pretty close to perfect for this season to have real meaning and it is hard to envision that. Miami has looked very good early. We might need to pump the brakes a little but we will know more after this game. QB Tyler Van Dyke is definitely a major advantage though he is missing a top receiver.

This is not a home game for the Aggies; they are playing in Arlington. Yet still, they are favored. That makes sense if you were super high on them coming into the season but I wasn't and now we have some confirmation. They are just not good at the QB position right now and that still matters. It is hard to get excited about them in this spot against a team equally as physically gifted. 

Score Prediction: Miami 27 - Texas A&M 17
I love Miami on Saturday night. The point spread looks fantastic but I will buy some ML too. 

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. USC Trojans
Spread: USC -12.5
Total: 73.5

I am not sure of the Trojans' ceiling but you are going to have a hard time convincing me that any program has a better offense in the nation. They might need it too because Fresno State is better than the Stanford program they beat last week. Fresno State lost at home to an underrated Oregon State team but I am looking for them to be the best team in the Mountain West this season. The question is how good does that really make them?

This line is way too short. Bulldogs are going to score some points but are going to be easily outscored by a TD per half. This one might get close to the total before the end of the third quarter. 

Score Prediction: USC 52 - Fresno State 28
Look to take the Trojans on a team total over too.