CFP Bubble Watch: Penultimate Rankings Shakeup

In: Virginia (No. 17)

On the Bubble: Miami (No. 12), Duke (Not Ranked)

The ACC enters the final weekend with plenty of uncertainty. If Virginia beats Duke, the Cavaliers will take one of the spots guaranteed for the five highest-ranked conference champions. But if Duke upsets the Cavaliers, the ACC could get left out of the playoff. At 7-5, the Blue Devils are unranked in this week’s top 25 from the selection committee. It’s not certain a win over Virginia would be enough to get Duke into the top 25 and ahead of one of the Group of 5 conference champions. With James Madison moving into the rankings at No. 25 this week, the Blue Devils could be on the outside even with a victory over the Cavaliers.

Regardless of what happens in the conference title game with Virginia and Duke, the ACC still has another path to a playoff team in Miami. The Hurricanes remained at No. 12 following their win over Pitt and didn’t make up any ground in the battle to be the last at-large team in the field. However, all is not lost for the Hurricanes. When asked about the potential for idle teams to move in the rankings based upon other results in Week 15, selection committee chairman Hunter Yurachek indicated, “There may be something that happens in a championship game that impacts an idle team, whether that's their strength of schedule or some other data point that we use, or there could be a team that suffers a significant loss in a title game.”

At No. 12, Miami needs BYU to be soundly defeated by Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. A blowout loss would likely drop the Cougars behind the ’Canes in the top 25. If BYU drops in that scenario, the selection committee would have another chance to debate (and potentially flip) Miami-Notre Dame with the two teams ranked back-to-back.

Big 12

In: Texas Tech (No. 4)

On the Bubble: BYU (No. 11)

Regardless of what happens in Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game, Texas Tech (No. 4) is in the 12-team field. With a win over the Cougars, the Red Raiders would be positioned for a first-round bye and likely a nearby quarterfinal game in Arlington in the Cotton Bowl. With a loss, coach Joey McGuire’s team would be on the bubble to host a playoff game or face a first-round road trip.

BYU holds all of the cards to add intrigue on Saturday to the playoff picture. Entering the contest against Texas Tech, the Cougars are on the outside of the field. However, if coach Kalani Sitake’s team can pull off an upset, BYU would be guaranteed a spot in the field as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions, bumping Texas Tech back into an at-large position. And if the Big 12 gets two teams into the playoff, Notre Dame — currently holding the last at-large spot — would be out of the field.  

Big Ten

In: Ohio State (No. 1), Indiana (No. 2), Oregon (No. 5)

On the Bubble: None

The Big Ten’s bubble outlook for Week 15 is simple. Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon are all locked into the playoff field. Saturday night’s Big Ten Championship Game between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana will decide the No. 1 overall seed in the 12-team field. Barring a blowout result, the loser of the Buckeyes-Hoosiers matchup should still retain a top-four seed and a first-round bye.

Oregon (No. 5) is still in the mix for a first-round bye if Texas Tech and Georgia both lose. Even if the Ducks fall short of a bye, coach Dan Lanning’s team is at least locked into a first-round home game on Dec. 19 or Dec. 20. 

SEC

In: Georgia (No. 3), Ole Miss (No. 6), Texas A&M (No. 7), Oklahoma (No. 8), Alabama (No. 9)

On the Bubble: Texas (No. 13), Vanderbilt (No. 14)

Seeding is the biggest remaining question mark, as the SEC appears poised to get five teams into the 12-team field. If Georgia beats Alabama in the conference title game, coach Kirby Smart’s team would have a strong case to be the No. 2 overall seed. But if the Crimson Tide defeat the Bulldogs for the second time in ’25, coach Kalen DeBoer’s squad could move from No. 9 back into the top four and earn a first-round bye. By jumping Notre Dame on Tuesday night, unless Alabama suffers a blowout loss to Georgia, the Tide should be safely in the 12-team field.

Ole Miss and Texas A&M are locked into hosting first-round games. 

Independents

In: Notre Dame (No. 10)

Notre Dame won its 10th game in a row on Saturday night with a 49-20 victory over Stanford. Coach Marcus Freeman’s team is the last at-large selection (No. 10 overall ranking) in the field, so there’s plenty of anxiety in South Bend going into Week 15 action. If BYU beats Texas Tech for the Big 12 title, the Fighting Irish will be on the outside of the 12-team field. If BYU loses and falls in the top 25, the committee could revisit the Notre Dame-Miami debate with the teams potentially ranked back-to-back.