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CFP Projections After Wild Week 5 — Could Indiana Get a Home Game?
Sep 27, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti looks on during the fourth quarter against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Some weeks of college football get hyped to be the next great things and fall flat. Week 5 of the 2025 college football season didn't just match the hype it entered with; it somehow exceeded it.

For Indiana, that meant going on the road and pulling out a thrilling victory over Iowa, 20-15 in a contest that truly could have gone either way.

The rest of the country saw Oregon's trip to Penn State end in a double-overtime thriller, Alabama to rise from the ashes and continue its dominance of Georgia in Athens, and thrilling finishes all over the place.

So as the calendar gets ready to flip from September to October and the weather begins to cool nationally, the heat of the college football season is only about to heat up. How does the College Football Playoff chase look after five weeks of the 2025 season?

Indiana in Great Shape for CFP Bid

Through five games, Indiana appears to be in the driver's seat to earn a second-straight College Football Playoff bid. The Hoosiers didn't play their best game at Iowa, but did survive as they know sit 5-0 for the second-straight season, something that has never been done previously in the history of Indiana football.

As Indiana enters an off week and gets ready for a top 10 battle at mighty Oregon on October 11, it does so very likely hold the keys to a home College Football Playoff game with how things sit.

College Football Playoff Projections Following Week 5

First Round Byes (Spots 1-4):

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
2. Miami (ACC Champion)
3. Ole Miss (SEC Champion)
4. Ohio State (At Large Bid)

First Round Matchups (Games Played on College Campuses)

5. Texas A&M vs. 12. Memphis
6. Oklahoma vs. 11. Florida State
7. Alabama vs. 10. Georgia
8. Indiana vs. 9. Iowa State

How do you pick a No. 1 team right now? Obviously, the CFP committee will have more of a sample on each team, but of the unbeatens out there, does any win currently compare to Oregon's at Penn State on Saturday night?

Trying to pick a Big Ten champion between Ohio State and Oregon feels difficult, as Indiana sits there quietly, too. I have them behind those two in the Big Ten because it lacks a big road victory over a powerhouse in recent years, something it'll need to accomplish in order to possibly reach its first Big Ten championship game.

Penn State still having a trip to Ohio State and home game against Indiana remaining means that at a return trip to the CFP for the Nittany Lions after Saturday night's loss to Oregon is anything but a given.

10 wins feels almost like a given right now for the Hoosiers, with 11 being a possibility. That, combined with what is still to come elsewhere, could very well be enough to get the Hoosiers to host a College Football Playoff game.

Want a challenge? Go and try to predict the rest of the SEC season with the current logjam towards the top of the conference.

CFP Second Round Matchups

1. Oregon vs. 8. Indiana
4. Ohio State vs. 5. Texas A&M
3. Ole Miss vs. 6. Oklahoma
2. Miami vs. 7. Alabama

This would mean a trip to the Rose Bowl for Indiana, something it's only done once, all the way back at the conclusion of the 1967 season.

CFP Semi-Final Matchups

1. Oregon vs. 4. Ohio State
2. Miami vs. 3 Ole Miss

Just how great is the parity in major college football right now? I think you can make a legit case for about 12 teams to be a potential national champion currently, and that the margin for error is incredibly close. I may not have Indiana in this potential final four, but it has placed itself in a seat at the table after staving off defeat yet again.

CFP National Championship Game

1. Oregon over 2. Miami

Two seasons into its Big Ten run and Oregon is yet to lose a conference game. Could it be headed to a national championship after coming close several times over the years? Curt Cignetti and Indiana will be looking to spoil Oregon's Big Ten championship hopes in two weeks, as a trip to Autzen Stadium awaits.


This article first appeared on Indiana Hoosiers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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