College Football Odds: Analyst Says Georgia Tech's 5.5 Projected Win Total Is Too High

College Football season is getting closer everyone.

With the season getting closer, more and more people are taking a look at teams' projected win totals for the upcoming season, and one of the most interesting ones in the ACC is Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets face one of the toughest schedules in the country, but return the bulk of one of the best offenses in the ACC, including quarterback Haynes King. Most sportsbooks have the Yellow Jackets win total set at 5.5 and On3 Sports analyst Jesse Simonton thinks that 5.5 might be too high:

"The Yellow Jackets upset Miami and North Carolina last season to make the postseason for the first time since 2018, but the books see a slight regression season with maybe the most difficult schedule (non-conference included) in the ACC in 2024. 

While Georgia Tech returns quarterback Haynes King (who led the league in touchdowns and interceptions last season), 1,000-yard rusher Jamal Haynes and infused a bad defense (worst in the ACC in 2023) with 11 newcomers via the portal, it has just five true home games on the slate this fall. The Yellow Jackets open against FSU in Ireland and end the season against top-ranked Georgia in Athens. In between, they play at Syracuse, Louisville, North Carolina and Virginia Tech and draw Notre Dame, Miami and NC State at home. That’s a gauntlet by ACC standards."

While the schedule is a gauntlet, there are not going to be many games where the Yellow Jackets are massive underdogs and Brent Key has shown the ability to be able to get his team to play at a high level to pull an upset ever since he was the interim head coach. They might be significant underdogs in games vs FSU, Notre Dame and Georgia, but the might not be a double-digit underdog in the rest of the games. Still, this team is going to have to work to make a bowl game and improve on last year's 7-6 mark.

I think that Georgia Tech is being undervalued around the country though.

Last season there were a number of first-year head coaches around the sport and despite leading his program to a bowl game for the first time since 2018 and a bowl win for the first time since 2016, Brent Key did not get the kind of attention that coaches like Deion Sanders did at Colorado and Matt Rhule did at Nebraska. They both fell short of a bowl game and did not have any notable wins to speak of. Key took down Miami, North Carolina, played Georgia tougher than almost anyone else did, and then beat UCF in the bowl game. He took over a program that had turned into an afterthought under former head coach Geoff Collins (now at North Carolina) and made them competitive during his first season. I would bet that most don't realize that if Georgia Tech had not blown a double-digit lead against Louisville in the season opener, the Yellow Jackets could have made the ACC Championship.

Yeah, that almost happened. The Yellow Jackets finished in 4th place in the ACC behind Florida State, Louisville, and NC State. A couple of games go the Yellow Jackets way and they would have faced the Seminoles in Charlotte for a shot at the ACC crown.

That fact has gotten lost on people when talking about the ACC race this year and other ACC teams, Virginia Tech in particular, are getting more love in early top 25 rankings this offseason despite not beating quality opponents like Georgia Tech did last year and returning the offensive firepower they do.

I like Georgia Tech to go over their win total this season, but make no mistake, it is going to be a challenge for them.

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JACKSON CAUDELL

Jackson Caudell covers Georgia Tech Athletics and the Atlanta Hawks for FanNation

Follow @jacksoncaudell