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College Football Playoff Chances After Week 1
Aug 30, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) reacts after a play against the Florida State Seminoles during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Week 1 of college football is almost over with the conclusion of TCU vs. North Carolina on Monday night. The first full Saturday of college football brought many twists and turns. Even though the College Football Playoff is three months away, it’s time to rank the chances of teams to make the second-ever 12-team playoff. Of course, teams like Penn State, Oregon, and Georgia are playoff candidates, but since they didn’t play in any challenging games and haven’t done anything to hurt or improve their playoff odds, they won’t be on the list.

Great Chance Of Making The College Football Playoffs

Ohio State– The Buckeyes welcomed in No. 1 Texas, winning the game 14-7. Ohio State will be the new No. 1 team in the country heading into Week 2 and now has the best chance of any team making the playoffs. Ohio State’s resume gets a significant boost with the win over the Longhorns. Last season, the Buckeyes lost two games, but still made the playoffs. Ohio State’s head coach, Ryan Day, has never lost more than two games in the regular season since taking over in 2019. The Buckeyes might not win the national championship for a second straight season, but they will be in the playoffs once again.

Improved Chances A Ton

LSU– The Tigers went down to Clemson and took out one of the preseason favorites to win it all. LSU’s chance to make the playoffs spiked with that victory, but they still have a tough SEC road in front of them, playing Florida, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma.

Miami– Miami took care of business at home against Notre Dame on Sunday night. The Hurricanes lost quarterback Cam Ward to the NFL, but Georgia transfer Carson Beck looked good filling his shoes. Miami’s win over the Fighting Irish puts them in a great place to fight for a playoff spot. In three weeks, Miami will welcome Florida and go on the road to Florida State in October. Other than that, their schedule seems nice enough to secure wins and compete for a spot in the ACC title game.

Florida State- The best story of the weekend was Florida State beating Alabama, the day former Seminoles football player Lee Corso retired from College GameDay. Corso picked Florida State on his way out. Beating Alabama is a fantastic accomplishment that will only enhance their resume for the rest of the season. Florida State might not be back to their 13-0 regular season team of 2023, but they aren’t close to the 2-10 team of 2024.

Chances Took A Hit

Texas– Losing to Ohio State isn’t a bad loss. It might be the best loss any team will have this year. However, the Longhorns still have to go to Georgia, Florida, and play Oklahoma in a neutral-site game. If somehow they drop two of those contests, they could be looking at the outside of the playoffs.

Alabama– Losing to Florida State wasn’t good. Alabama lost to two 6-6 teams last season, and they just lost to a team that dropped ten games a year ago. It’s a new season, so teams change, but if Florida State is only a six or seven-win team. It’s a bad loss on the Crimson Tide’s resume.

Clemson– The Tigers’ loss to LSU isn’t the end of the world since Clemson plays in the ACC. The only issue is that both Miami and Florida State secured two top-ten wins this week, meaning they could pose a threat in the conference. Since the ACC isn’t brutal, and if Clemson drops a conference game and can’t win the ACC title, it could push them out of the playoffs.

Notre Dame – The Fighting Irish lost to Northern Illinois last season and still made the championship game, so they are fine. However, they do welcome Texas A&M in two weeks, and if they lose there, they would have dropped the two biggest games of their season. With no conference championship, Notre Dame will need to find a way to go at least 10-2, with one win being over the Aggies.

Boise State– Last year’s non-Power Four team to make the playoffs is off to a rough start. The Broncos lost to the University of South Florida 34-7. Boise State likely won’t be as good without Star running back Ashton Jeanty, who’s now in the NFL. They still have to play Notre Dame, which could give them a second loss.

Teams like South Carolina, Tennessee, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Tulane, and Nebraska got solid wins over the weekend, but they will have a lot more to prove before they are added to the list. College football is off to a hot start, and Week 2 will feature a big-time playoff spot with Michigan going to play Oklahoma.

This article first appeared on Stadium Rant and was syndicated with permission.

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