College Football Playoff Predictions, Picks, Parlay, Odds for Penn State vs. Boise State on December 31

• Spread: Penn State -11, Boise State +11
• Over/Under: 53.5 (-110o / -110u)
• Moneyline: Penn State -455, Boise State +345

Moneyline: Penn State ML

Let me preface this by saying that as a college football fan, I would like to see Boise State win.

But I don’t see that happening.

The Broncos are an amazing story. Ashton Jeanty is the best running back in the nation, and he’ll put up numbers. 

Boise State’s offensive line is at full strength, and center Mason Randolph is the straw that stirs the drink — Randolph is a big part of Jeanty’s success. For what it’s worth, Penn State allows plenty of explosive rush plays.

That said, Penn State doesn’t allow explosives through the air and ranks 44th nationally in Havoc.

While Boise State hung around with Oregon at the beginning of the season, I still have doubts.

Based on the previous beatdowns in these College Football Playoffs, I think Penn State runs away with this, just like it dog-walked SMU.

Over/Under: Over 53.5

In this game, the conditions will play a massive part in how much scoring we get.

In the Big Ten Championship game against Oregon, I was pleasantly surprised by Penn State’s offense. Typically, the Lions like to slow the game down and bring opposing teams to their level.

But the Big Ten Championship was in a dome, and Penn State hadn’t played in a dome yet.

So where is the Fiesta Bowl played? State Farm Stadium – a dome. When the Nittany Lions don’t have to battle the elements, they’re as elite as they come.

Given that we’ll probably see a few explosive runs from Boise State, I expect Penn State to hang around and play at the Bronco’s pace for once.

Boise State Player Prop: Maddux Madsen Under 175.5 Passing Yards

Because Jeanty has been such a force in college football, casual fans tend to forget about Maddux Madsen.

In his first full season as a starter, he’s been a decent quarterback, completing 62% of his passes and leading the Mountain West with 22 passing touchdowns.

The difference is he probably hasn’t seen a pass rush quite like Penn State. His kryptonite is throwing the ball under pressure, and with projected first-round defensive end Abdul Carter looming, I think he will have difficulty finding quick reads.

Penn State Player Prop: Tyler Warren Over 73.5 Receiving Yards

I’ve done nothing but bet Tyler Warren props this year, and I’m not stopping now.

I think Drew Allar will slice through Boise State’s defense. The calling card for the Broncos’ defense was their pass rush, registering the second-most sacks in the country. The difference is that Penn State doesn’t allow many sacks, which should give Allar plenty of time to find his targets.

Enter the 260-pound bowling-ball tight end wearing number 44 in navy and white.

Additionally, Boise State is one of the worst tackling teams in the country, and that was with a Mountain West schedule. Warren has shown he can easily roll through this defense, with 17 forced missed tackles all season and a 68.8% contested catch rate.