College Football Playoff semifinals take shape with latest rankings

The only question at this point is if No. 5 Ohio State (11-1, 8-1 in Big Ten) can sneak into the top four. Losses by either TCU or USC would open the door for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State will be rooting for No. 11 Utah (9-3, 7-2 in Pac-12) in its conference title game against USC (11-1, 8-1 in Pac-12). That would be the easiest path for the Buckeyes to re-enter the chat. 

The Trojans lost earlier this season to the Utes, 43-42. It would be hard to consider USC one of the four best teams if — when given two opportunities — it couldn't beat a Utah team that lost to the third-worst SEC East team, Florida (6-6, 3-5 in SEC). ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Utah a 61.2 percent chance of winning.

Conversely, a win for USC would be the clearest sign of the team's improvement from then to now. Per Oddschecker, USC is a three-point favorite. QB Caleb Williams has played his way into the pole position for the Heisman Trophy and has plenty riding on a big performance and win. 

The Horned Frogs (12-0, 9-0 in Big 12) should have a little more leeway in its conference championship game against No. 10 Kansas State (9-3, 7-2 in Big 12), but the team likely can't afford a performance like the one it had in the first half against Kansas State over the course of 60 minutes. 

In that game, Kansas State jumped out to a 28-10 lead. TCU scored 28 unanswered points to win 38-28. If the game ends in a Wildcats blowout, there will be serious doubt about whether the Horned Frogs belong in the top four. If the game ends in a close Kansas State win, it would be difficult to argue that as enough of a reason to exclude TCU. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives TCU a 53.9 percent chance to win. Oddschecker favors TCU by 2.5 points.

TCU's defense, the weak link on the team, has been strong during the Horned Frogs' stretch run. In their past three games, the defense allowed 17.3 points per contest.

Georgia and Michigan have far easier competition. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives both at least a 80 percent chance of winning their conference title games.

In the ultimate scenario of chaos, a combination of Purdue (8-4, 6-3 in Big Ten), No. 14 LSU (9-3, 6-2 in SEC), Utah and Kansas State win and the committee punishes us all and sticks No. 6 Alabama (10-2, 6-2 in SEC) in the playoff.

There's potential for some reshuffling, but the deck chairs are close to being bolted down. It will take a storm system bigger than what may be possible to shift them out of place.