College football predictions: Best trades of Week 4

The spreads are squeezing and/or flipping as teams start to hit the road in conference play. The markets know conventional wisdom often doesn’t apply when 100,000 hostiles are screaming in the general direction of a 20-year-old.

Let’s look at some matchups and make predictions based on the odds provided by Polymarket.

Last week: 6-4

This season: 20-12

Texas at Tennessee (+5.5) Total: 55.5

This may seem like a tight spread for a game involving the No. 1 team in the country. Mostly, it’s the market understanding that in the Big Ten and SEC, it’s going to be hard even for the megapowers to win when they’re visiting teams that spend like they do. The market remembers Texas not being particularly good in SEC road games last year (loss at Florida, overtime win at Kentucky, overtime win at Mississippi State, loss at Georgia). Neyland Stadium will be rocking even though it’s a noon kickoff. So don’t be shocked if the Volunteers keep it close or win outright.

My position: Tennessee +5.5 at 50%

Ole Miss at Florida (-3.5) Total: 61.5

Florida is favored here for the same reason Tennessee is not a massive underdog to Texas. The market’s faith in the Gators came as a surprise to coach Jon Sumrall, though.

“Who’s got us favored against these guys?” Sumrall said. “There’s a lot of good drugs out there.”

It does make sense, though. This is a classic letdown/hangover spot for Ole Miss after beating LSU and Lane Kiffin. Florida’s offense has looked great so far this season. It’s also easy to understand Sumrall’s viewpoint. His defense just allowed 39 points at Auburn, and it’s about to face maybe the best quarterback in the country in Trinidad Chambliss.

My position: Ole Miss +3.5 at 52%

Oklahoma at Georgia (-13.5) Total: 43.5

Against Michigan and New Mexico, Oklahoma scored a combined 24 points, averaged 4.9 yards per offensive play and 2.6 yards a carry. Neither head coach Brent Venables nor offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle seemed to offer any hope that the offense will improve. A line that got consistently knocked back by New Mexico defensive linemen will get dominated by Georgia defensive linemen unless something changes. Meanwhile, this will be the most functional/explosive offense the Oklahoma defense has seen so far this season. Oklahoma entered this season believing it was ready to compete with teams on Georgia’s level. Having provided no evidence so far, the Sooners will have to prove it between the hedges.

My position: Georgia -13.5 at 53%

Iowa at Michigan (-5.5) Total: 37.5

Michigan has essentially played two Iowa games already. The Wolverines might not have actually beaten Western Michigan, but they got credit for the win. They did beat Oklahoma by smothering the Sooners’ offense and by calling plays that minimized mistakes and maximized what quarterback Bryce Underwood does well.

So here’s the question: Does playing two Iowa games better prepare a team to beat Iowa? Or does winning two squeakers against teams that aren’t Iowa mean the pure, uncut Hawkeyes will drag you into hell? We’ll get our answer Saturday.

My position: Michigan -5.5 at 49%

Wisconsin at Penn State (-9.5) Total: 45.5

Penn State hasn’t played an opponent of consequence yet, so we don’t know exactly how good this Iowa State-ified version of the Nittany Lions is. We suspect the Nittany Lions are much better than last year, though. Wisconsin has played one opponent of consequence, and the Badgers hung in against Notre Dame for a half before the talent gap started showing. That gap probably won’t be so wide in Happy Valley, but it’ll still be a gap.

My position: Penn State -9.5 at 52%

Oklahoma State at West Virginia (-1.5) Total: 59.5

The Mountaineers looked fantastic last week in a 38-27 win against Virginia. QB Michael Hawkins Jr. was efficient throwing the ball (10 of 17, 190 yards, two touchdowns) and deadly running it (18 carries, 123 yards, three touchdowns). The question is whether that will continue against an Oklahoma State defense that made stops when it needed them against Oregon. The Cowboys should be able to score plenty. But can the Mountaineers keep up?

My position: Oklahoma State +1.5 at 50%

South Carolina at Alabama (-13.5) Total: 55.5

These teams have played two justthisclose games since Kalen DeBoer took over at Alabama, and the Crimson Tide won both. This might wind up being a great litmus test for whether this version of the Crimson Tide is better than the one DeBoer put on the field his first two seasons. If Alabama wins comfortably, it probably means the Tide are capable of more. If it’s another squeaker either way, then this season may go just about like the last two.

My position: Alabama -13.5 at 47%

Texas A&M at LSU (-9.5) Total: 51.5

I’m choosing to respect history here. The Aggies looked terrible last week, and Kentucky exploited Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed’s tendency to be inaccurate under pressure. The key against Reed is to keep him from escaping the pocket. The defense must force him to throw. If he squirts out, he keeps drives alive. In the past two meetings, defensive coordinator Blake Baker’s LSU defense has been terrible at containing Reed. In last year’s 49-25 LSU loss, Reed ran 13 times for 108 yards and two touchdowns. He threw only 21 times, completing 12 passes for 202 yards and two touchdowns. (He still threw two interceptions.) Last week, Kentucky made Reed throw 49 times. He completed only 26 passes, plus two more to the Wildcats.

Perhaps Baker and LSU’s defense have solved the Reed conundrum. But I’ll need to see it to believe it.

My position: Texas A&M +9.5 at 52%

Oregon at USC (+3.5) Total: 61.5

I’ve been a pretty harsh Lincoln Riley skeptic over the years, but I’m choosing to believe him when he says that USC now has everything it needs to succeed. If that’s true, then the Trojans should be able to beat an Oregon team that allowed Boise State and Oklahoma State to march the ball up and down the field. 

If the Ducks go to the Coliseum and the game looks similar to Oregon’s win at Autzen Stadium last year, then I’m probably not choosing to believe Riley again. I imagine most USC fans would feel the same way.

My position: USC +3.5 at 54%

Missouri at Mississippi State (-6.5) Total: 59.5

This spread would have seemed inconceivable before the season began, but Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor’s performances against Minnesota and South Carolina have changed the math for the Bulldogs. Can he keep it up against a Tigers team accustomed to winning these types of games?

My position: Mississippi State -6.5 at 50%

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.