College football predictions: Best trades of Week 6

It gets real this weekend in the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the SEC. Let’s look at some matchups and make predictions based on the odds provided by Polymarket.

Last week: 4-6*
Season: 29-23

*If you read last week’s column, you’d have me at 5-5 for the week. But we have a segment each week on the show that allows for one mulligan based on market moves. The Auburn-Tennessee spread jumped one point on Thursday to Tennessee -7.5, so I flipped my pick to Auburn. I should have stood pat with the Volunteers.

Florida State at Louisville (-5.5) Total: 59.5

Which version of Florida State is the real one? Is the one that refused to take the win that SMU offered on Labor Day, or is it the one that annihilated Virginia last week? By the same token, will we see the same version of Louisville that lost to Wake Forest (not as troubling) and then followed that with a loss to N.C. State (very troubling). Florida State hasn’t won a road game since beating Florida in the 2023 regular-season finale. That was another lifetime. But Mike Norvell might have a chance at new life if he can win this one — even if the Seminoles’ fanbase is done with him.
My position: Florida State +5.5 at 54 percent

Iowa at Washington (-2.5) Total: 41.5

Washington came so close to shocking USC in Los Angeles, but a Demond Williams fumble that led to a Jahkeem Stewart scoop and score sealed the Huskies’ fate. The Hawkeyes got Jeremiah Smith‘d to death by Ohio State. Washington doesn’t have a version of Jeremiah Smith (no one does). But Iowa will get after Williams just as aggressively as USC did.
My position: Iowa +2.5 at 49 percent

Iowa State at BYU (-10.5) Total: 48.5

The Cyclones got their first Big 12 win of the season in a thriller against West Virginia, and Iowa State tailback Aiden Flora may be the league’s next star. He ran for 212 yards on 22 carries with three rushing touchdowns and also threw two touchdown passes. The Cyclones won’t find BYU’s defense so easy to score on, but BYU likely will have to play without star tailback L.J. Martin. Expect QB Bear Bachmeier, who scored two rushing TDs in a 17-10 win at TCU, to shoulder more of the rushing load until Martin returns.
My position: BYU -10.5 at 48 percent

Indiana at Nebraska (+7.5) Total: 52.5

Nebraska looks much more competent than in recent years. The Cornhuskers went from down to coming back to dominating in the same game against Maryland. That wouldn’t have happened a year ago. That said, they can’t let Indiana jump on them the way Maryland did. If freshman tailback Jamal Rule (7.9 yards per carry) returns from injury, it should give Nebraska a chance to move the ball on the Hoosiers. Indiana QB Josh Hoover is coming off his most efficient game in a win against Rutgers. Hoover still hasn’t thrown an interception, and if he continues taking care of the ball, Indiana should stay undefeated.
My position: Indiana -7.5 at 50 percent

South Carolina at Florida (-13.5) Total: 61.5

Florida went from the hottest team in America to one of the biggest mysteries in America after the Gators followed a 52-28 win against Ole Miss with a 45-17 loss at Missouri. Florida averaged 5.1 yards a carry in its first two SEC games and then averaged 1.7 a carry against Missouri. Tigers QB Austin Simmons also took advantage of a suspect Florida secondary. The Gamecocks, meanwhile, blew a lead against Kentucky and wound up losing in overtime — turning up the heat even more on coach Shane Beamer. South Carolina needs this badly, but it feels like a get-right game for the Gators after their first loss of the Jon Sumrall era.
My position: Florida -13.5 at 50 percent

Texas vs. Oklahoma (+7.5) Total: 38.5

The markets seem to be predicting an Iowa game, and it makes sense. Oklahoma’s offense has been anemic. The Texas offense has just been OK. Both defenses might be elite. But unless Oklahoma figures out a way to run the ball with running backs and QB John Mateer stops giving the ball to the other team, scoring on Texas with any consistency feels impossible. Texas may not light up the scoreboard, but its offense has been competent enough — especially if its defense keeps getting Oklahoma off the field quickly.
My position: Texas -7.5 at 54 percent

UCLA at Oregon (-12.5) Total: 60.5

The combined record of UCLA’s four vanquished foes is 8-12, but UCLA hammered all of them. With the exception of Portland State, all of Oregon’s opponents have been able to move the ball against the Ducks. That said, Oregon has had little trouble scoring points. As we saw against USC, backup QB Dylan Raiola can be just as effective as starter Dante Moore. UCLA tailback Wayne Knight probably won’t be able to keep up his current average of 9.1 yards a carry. But UCLA should be able to run well enough to keep this one interesting late.
My position: UCLA +12.5 at 502 percent

LSU at Kentucky (+10.5) Total: 54.5

LSU is still a bit of a mystery, and some of that is because of what happened to Ole Miss in Gainesville after the Rebels beat the Tigers. Since losing to Alabama to open SEC play, the Wildcats have beaten Texas A&M and South Carolina on the road. But the Tigers throttled the Aggies even worse than Kentucky did. LSU has the more talented roster, but if the Wildcats can goad LSU QB Sam Leavitt (seven interceptions) into mistakes, they’ll have a chance.
My position: Kentucky +10.5 at 57 percent

USC at Penn State (-1.5) Total: 54.5

This spread makes no sense unless it’s purely an indictment of USC’s play in the Eastern and Central time zones since moving to the Big Ten. Since 2024, the Trojans have gone 2-5 in those time zones, and one of the wins was a seven-point victory at Rutgers earlier this season. Penn State looked horrible following a choke against Wisconsin with a 34-13 loss at Northwestern. The Nittany Lions are probably better than they’ve shown, but the spread still seems odd. But when the market tries to tell us something, maybe we should listen.
My position: Penn State -1.5 at 50 percent

Georgia at Alabama (-1.5) Total: 55.5

This shapes up as the best game of the SEC schedule so far. We’ve seen Alabama tested already at Kentucky and Mississippi State (and surprisingly at home by Florida State), but with Oklahoma refusing to play competent offense, we haven’t seen Georgia challenged at all. The Bulldogs appear to be more explosive on offense than last year, but who will Gunner Stockton be targeting in the fourth quarter of a tight game? Georgia has five pass-catchers with more than 100 receiving yards on the season and zero with more than 200. We should learn the identity of the lead Dawg in the receiving corps. Meanwhile, Georgia’s defense will have to prove it can contain Alabama QB Keelon Russell. No one has managed that yet.
My position: Georgia +1.5 at 50 percent

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