College Football Predictions: Best Week 10 trades

Disclaimer: When I wrote this predictions column, I was in no way under the influence of whatever the College Football Playoff selection committee partook of when compiling their initial rankings. (Alabama No. 5? Oregon No. 23?)

I’m not under the influence and coming off another winning week (yes, only 5-4), but you can’t go broke making a profit every week. And 45-31 the past seven weeks. 

On to Week 10, using odds courtesy of Polymarket.

Clemson at Syracuse

Dabo Swinney reminded everyone this week that a Clemson win would make it 27 consecutive seasons the Tigers have won at least six games, including 18 with Swinney as head coach. The only other schools to do it: Ohio State, Georgia and Oklahoma, although I’m not expecting those schools to promote that stat. OK, maybe Oklahoma might. Bad news for Dabo: the Tigers won’t get that elusive sixth win this week. They visit red-hot Syracuse, which has covered four straight games as an underdog, winning the past two vs. North Carolina and SMU. Fran Brown has the Orange two wins from bowl eligibility.
My Position: Syracuse to cover +3½ at 56%

Iowa State at Baylor

You might spot a trend in this week’s predictions: I am going against the field stormers. The majority of college football teams are rollercoasters: up one week, down the next. Iowa State stormed the field after upsetting Oklahoma State. Now, the Cyclones face a rejuvenated Baylor team that walloped UCF last week. Under interim coach Joe Klanderman, the Bears took advantage of a flat spot for the Knights, outgaining UCF by 222 yards. I don’t think it was a fluke.
My Position: Baylor to cover -9½ at 50%

Oregon at Ohio State

I’m not sure what was more surprising: the College Football Playoff selection committee’s ranking of Ohio State at No. 12 or Oregon at No. 23. The Buckeyes are the nation’s only team with two road wins at current CFP Top 25 teams. Oregon is only 2-2 AD – After Dante (Moore) – escaping with late wins against Nebraska and Northwestern. The Buckeyes, in Luke Fahey’s second start, will expose the Ducks.
My Position: Ohio State to cover -6½ at 58%

Charlotte at UAB

Both teams enter off losses: Charlotte suffered a heartbreaking OT loss to Tulane and UAB a misleading 20-point loss at South Florida in which the Bulls returned two UAB fumbles for touchdowns. UAB (4-4) can take a big step toward bowl eligibility, while any slim chances the 49ers (1-7) had for a bowl game were eliminated last week.
My Position: UAB to cover -6½ at 58%

Penn State at Washington

The Nittany Lions stopped a four-game slide with last week’s win vs. Purdue. Penn State rolled up 457 yards, its most in Big Ten play this year, behind QB Rocco Becht and RB Cam Wallace (a career-high 135 yards). Meanwhile, the Huskies somehow, someway scored two TDs in a 12-second span in the final two minutes to beat Nebraska. Washington was outgained by 120 yards and benefited from three NU turnovers. Washington won’t be as fortunate two weeks in a row.
My Position: Penn State to cover +3½ at 57%

Louisiana Tech at Troy

We’ll go back to the well with the Bulldogs, who were an easy winner for us last week. Louisiana Tech is 7-1 against the spread, the nation’s second-best mark behind only UCLA. Against Troy, the Bulldogs’ defense should dominate a pedestrian Trojans offense. Also, Troy is coming off a big upset at James Madison and should come back to Earth this week.
My Position: Louisiana Tech to cover -4½ points at 54%

Louisville at Georgia Tech

Since the Yellow Jackets upset Duke – did that really happen? – they have lost three consecutive ACC games, all by double digits. They must win their final four games to become bowl-eligible. Louisville’s hopes to reach the College Football Playoff realistically ended with consecutive losses to Wake Forest and NC State. Since then, however, the Cards have won three straight featuring QB Lincoln Kienholz and an offense that leads the nation, averaging 7.8 yards per play.
My Position: Louisville to cover -13½ points at 55%

Colorado at Arizona State

Here’s another play against a field stormer. Last week, Colorado was a favorite against Kansas State and defeated the Wildcats 27-24, leading to the Buffs’ fans running onto the field. Seems kinda weird doing so after winning a game you were supposed to win. I guess it’s almost as odd as retiring two players’ jerseys a few months after their playing careers ended. Anyway, Arizona State also beat Kansas State, but by 11 points, in its last home game (ASU didn’t storm the field). Freshman QB Jake Fette, who threw for two TDs in last week’s close loss at BYU, should continue his strong play.
My Position: Arizona State to cover -2½ at 57%

Iowa at Northwestern

Iowa only ranks 14th out of 18 Big Ten teams in passing offense, which may not sound that great. Until you consider that the Hawkeyes had the Big Ten’s worst or second-worst passing offense in each of the past four seasons. Iowa and Northwestern’s offenses are similar statistically, but Wildcats QB Aidan Chiles may not be 100 percent. So, I’ll take the much better defense getting points.
My Position: Iowa to cover +3½ at 57%

Michigan State at Michigan

This could be an old-fashioned Big Ten rock fight, featuring two of the nation’s worst offenses in yards per play. The Spartans rank No. 134, UM is No. 118. Sparty enters on a six-game losing streak and they have been injury-plagued at quarterback. Michigan has gone a different direction recently at quarterback with Tommy Carr taking over. The Wolverines’ last five games have all been decided by seven points or less. That streak ends Saturday.
My Position: Michigan to cover -12½ at 52%

Liberty at New Mexico State

Since losing its opener at James Madison, the Flames have been, pardon the pun, on fire. Liberty has won seven consecutive games, the last six by an average margin of 28 points. They rank in the top 20 in the nation in scoring margin (30.3 points) and yards per game margin (229 yards). Last week the Aggies hosted Jacksonville State, which is tied with Liberty atop CUSA, and lost 24-0. Liberty is even better.
My Position: Liberty to cover -13½ at 57%

Last week: 5-4
Record this season: 53-41

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