College Football Predictions: Best Week 6 trades

Five days before Saturday’s kickoff of the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl, an electrical fire broke out at the neighboring State Fair of Texas. Parts of the midway were engulfed in flames.

This is where you may insert your own joke about the Oklahoma offense. Go ahead, I’ll wait. 

Last year, Oklahoma fans were worried that QB John Mateer wouldn’t be able to play against Texas because of a hand injury. This year, some (most) OU fans are hoping Mateer won’t play. It’s been that ugly in Norman, but more on this game below.

Last week I went 5-4, my fourth consecutive winning week. I’ve reached that point where a 5-4 week seems blah. That’s what happens when you go 27-13 over the last four weeks. I have to keep feeding the monster. 

Onto Week 6 using odds courtesy of Polymarket.

Wyoming at San Jose State, Friday

To keep geese off San Jose State’s practice fields a few years ago, the school bought four fake plastic coyotes and placed them on the fields each night. The reason: the geese “shit everywhere.” The school moved the coyotes around daily to fool the geese because SJSU got tired of having to clean it up. Which brings us to tonight’s mess in the Mountain West between two teams fighting to get bowl eligible. Wyoming got its clock cleaned last week, in a shutout loss to North Dakota State, while San Jose State pulled off an upset at Hawaii despite being outgained by 113 yards. Now the Spartans return to the mainland on a short week. Perhaps they step in it often enough to keep the Cowboys within a touchdown.
My Position: Wyoming to cover +6½ at 52%

North Carolina at Pitt

Last week after Pitt’s victory at Virginia Tech, Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi exclaimed: “We’ve got a helluva football team. If any of those (AP) voters out there wake their a-- up, they might figure that out.” For what it’s worth, I was conscious, ranking the Panthers the previous week. After Pitt’s upset, Narduzzi got his wish. The Panthers debuted at No. 25 in the AP poll Sunday. That might not be a good thing against North Carolina. Over the past two seasons, teams entering the Top 25 for the first time in September or October are only 12-18 against the spread in their next game. It doesn’t help Pitt that starting QB Mason Heintschel (torn ACL) is out with senior Holden Geriner making his first career start.
My Position: UNC to cover +4½ at 54%

Indiana at Nebraska

Earlier this week, Indiana filled an opening in its 2027 non-conference schedule by adding Jacksonville State, joining games vs. Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State. Apparently, Bishop Sycamore High School was not available. Criticize Curt Cignetti’s cupcake scheduling philosophy, but when the Hoosiers step up in class, they take care of business. Nebraska? Not so much. The Huskers have lost 31 consecutive games against AP-ranked opponents. Now they face an Indiana offense humming along: QB Josh Hoover is one of two QBs nationally with 15 TD passes and no interceptions and the Hoosiers are averaging 300 yards rushing in Big Ten play.
My Position: Indiana to cover -6½ at 58%

Texas vs. Oklahoma in Dallas

On Thursday, former Oklahoma and Texas stars Billy Sims and Ricky Williams were named to the 2026 SEC Football Legends class. They will be honored at the SEC title game – despite winning their Heisman Trophies in the Big 8 and Big 12, respectively. I’m looking forward to 2036 when former Notre Dame QB Joe Montana is named to the Big Ten’s Football Legends class. Maybe one day, Texas QB Arch Manning also can join the SEC Football Legends class. If he wants to join as a Heisman winner, he can’t lose to Oklahoma, and its beleaguered QB John Mateer. Manning won’t in a low-scoring affair.
My Position: Texas to cover -6½ at 58% and under 41½ points at 58%

UCLA at Oregon

Oregon will be without starting QB Dante Moore, who suffered a concussion at USC last week. Back-up Dylan Raiola came in and lit up the Trojans, throwing for 289 yards and two TDs. With Bob Chesney, UCLA is off to a 4-0 start, its best under a first-year coach since 1949. “We’re about to play a UCLA team that reminds me a lot of Indiana from last year,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning said. Sorry Dan, UCLA is no Indiana. The Bruins’ four wins are against teams that are a combined 2-9 vs. Power Four opponents. UCLA’s best opponent was Purdue, which put up 38 points on the Bruins. Oregon will do the same – and more.
My Position: Over 57½ points at 55%

Duke at Georgia Tech

Unfortunately Georgia Tech has been a Rambling Wreck this season, losing all three games vs. FBS opponents. The offense has struggled and the defense allowed an average of 412 yards in its three losses. Duke, the defending ACC champions, is one of the nation’s most underrated teams. RB Nate Sheppard leads the nation, averaging 161 yards rushing a game, and could be a huge factor if the game is impacted by weather. Tech comes limping in: Thursday’s availability report had 11 players listed out and five more, including three offensive linemen, questionable.
My Position: Duke to cover -5½ at 55%

San Diego State at Oregon State

Despite an outbreak of mumps last week, San Diego State rallied past Texas State 31-29. If you had Texas State – and I did – you were sick. San Diego State was held to less than 100 yards on offense in the second half, but still scored 28 points after halftime. The Aztecs were outgained by 326 yards! and still won. Their voodoo magic ends in Corvallis. Oregon State QB Braden Atkinson (averaging 370 yards passing a game) and WR Jesse Legree (26.5 yards per reception) each lead the nation in their respective categories. Since opening with losses against nationally ranked Houston and Texas Tech, the Beavers have won their last three games by 35, 26 and 30 points.
My Position: Oregon State to cover -13½ at 57%

Georgia at Alabama

The game of the day: No. 2 Georgia at No. 6 Alabama. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton leads the SEC and is third nationally in QB rating with 13 touchdown passes and only one interception. Meanwhile, Alabama’s Keelon Russell is third in the SEC (averaging 283 yards passing per game) and sixth nationally in QB rating. Georgia is only an underdog for the third time in the last 78 games and the Bulldogs won the previous two against Texas (2024) and Clemson (2021). Since 2021 when a Top 10 team is favored over a higher ranked team, the lower ranked Top 10 team has covered 16 of 21 games. Roll (lower-ranked) Tide.
My Position: Alabama to cover -1½ at 50%

Hawaii at Arizona State

The Sun Devils are coming off a 55-19 beatdown by Baylor. Arizona State’s defense was shredded for 564 yards and the offense made matters worse, committing three turnovers. Hawaii comes to Tempe in an awful travel spot. Two weeks ago, the Rainbow Warriors played in the high altitude in Wyoming (losing 27-10) and last week lost at home to San Jose State 20-16. Did I mention Group of Six teams are 3-73 against Power 4 opponents this season? The Sun Devils and QB Cutter Boley take out their frustrations in the desert against a Hawaii team that hasn’t scored 17 points in three of five games this season.
My Position: Arizona State to cover -19½ at 55%

Fresno State at Boise State

Boise State continues its march toward the College Football Playoff against Fresno State. Last year, Fresno State halted the Broncos’ playoff hopes with 30-7 loss on The Blue. Now they visit a Bulldogs team that is a misleading 4-1. Fresno State’s three FBS wins came against teams that are a combined 2-10 vs. FBS opponents. Boise State has the Pac-12’s leading rusher in Dylan Riley and QB Maddux Madsen has 11 TD passes without an interceptions. Expect the Broncos to play the revenge card. Meanwhile, Fresno State is debuting “The Beer Bone” Saturday, so fans will have a bone-shaped beer glass to drown their sorrows. Woof!
My Position: Boise State to cover -5½ at 55%

Last week: 5-4
Record this season: 35-23

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