College Football Predictions: McMurphy’s best Week 4 trades

First, a moment of silence and my condolences for anyone who had NC State +3½ last week at Vanderbilt. 

I’ve been doing this a long time – I still remember my first bet: it was Moses over 9½ Commandments. Winner! – and the NC State-Vanderbilt debacle was the worst bad beat of all time.

As horrific as that was, it wasn’t alone. Clemson’s late TD against UNC didn’t help my record. Still, things around here are going pretty, pretty, pretty good: 14-7 the last two weeks and 22-17 for the season.

I don’t want to exaggerate how well I’m doing, but Lane Kiffin keeps texting me to enter the Transfer Portal. No way, no how. You’re stuck with me right here (unless Kiffin triples his offer).

Onto Week 4 using odds courtesy of Polymarket.

Clemson at Cal, Friday

Dabo did us wrong last week in the Tigers’ come-from-behind win vs. UNC last week. Yet, we’ll go against the Tigers once again. Why not? Clemson is traveling across the country on short rest for a Friday night 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff. Freshman QB Tait Reynolds is expected to make his second consecutive start for the Tigers, who enter with the worst offense among Power 4 teams, averaging 298 yards per game. Cal counters with QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. This is Clemson’s first trip to the state of California since 2019 and first-ever foray into #ACCAfterDark. Good luck with that.
My Position: Cal to cover +2½ at 53%

Texas at Tennessee

The question this week from Knoxville is “Who’s the real UT?” Personally, I’d go with the University of Tampa, but the Spartans dropped football in 1974. Tennessee, which is 2-16 all-time vs. No. 1 teams, is in a rare home underdog role. Last season Texas was 0-5 against the spread on the road, losing outright at Florida and needing OT to win at Mississippi State. Neyland Stadium is different. Much different. While QBs Arch Manning and Faizon Brandon grab all the headlines, the difference will be in the interior lines. Texas’ offense ranks among the bottom 20 teams in FBS in allowing tackles for loss and will face the Vols’ defense, which ranks No. 11 with the most tackles for loss.
My Position: Tennessee to cover +5½ at 53%

Wake Forest at Louisville

In his fourth season at Louisville, Jeff Brohm is a sparkling 31-12. He is among one of the nation’s best coaches as an underdog, but he’s been inconsistent as a favorite. Six of Brohm’s 12 losses at the ‘Ville were when the Cards were at least a 7-point favorite. They’re also only 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 home games. Coming off last week’s huge victory against SMU, where’s the motivation as a two TD favorite against Wake Forest? Last week the Deacons hung with Miami and can put up enough points to keep it close.
My Position: Wake Forest to cover +14½ at 58%

San Diego State at Toledo

This underrated non-conference Group of Six matchup won’t garner much attention, but it should be one of the most entertaining games of the day. Toledo ranks as the third-fastest team in seconds per play and San Diego State is 19th. Even with my remedial math skills: more plays should mean more points, right?
My Position: Over 51½ points at 50%

Ole Miss at Florida

When Florida coach Jon Sumrall was told his Gators were favored against Ole Miss, he responded: “They’ve got a lot of good drugs out there.” Buddy, you have no idea. Florida also has one of the best – maybe college football’s best running back – in Jaden Baugh, who is averaging nearly nine yards a carry. Ole Miss is never out of it with QB Trinidad Chambliss but what’s left in the tank for the Rebels after exhausting wins vs. Louisville and LSU? There’s also this stat: Ole Miss is only the fifth team since 1978 that’s coming off a Top 25 win as an underdog and the next week is ranked in the top five as an underdog against a team outside the Top 20. The previous four underdogs in that role were 0-4 against the spread.
My Position: Florida to cover -2½ points at 55%

Appalachian State at NC State

Kickoff isn’t until 7:30 Saturday night, meaning NC State’s coaches and players still have time get in a few more therapy sessions following last week’s stunning loss at Vanderbilt (still too soon, Wolfpack fans?). The Mountaineers come to Raleigh undefeated, featuring the Sun Belt’s second-best offense and carrying no emotional baggage. Another big-time flat spot on this week’s card.
My Position: App State to cover +14½ points at 53%

Oregon at USC

A loss to USC in the LA Coliseum Saturday and Oregon might have to win out to make the playoffs. The Ducks have won six of the last seven meetings against USC. Trojans QB Jayden Maiava (12 TDs, one interception) has been outstanding, but USC’s defense not so much. The Trojans opened with one of the nation’s easiest schedules – three Group of 6 opponents and Rutgers – and still rank, under new defensive coordinator Gary Patterson, among the 25 worst defenses in yards per play. USC had better hope Oregon’s offense is still tipping plays, like in the Oklahoma State loss. Speaking of tipping (nice segue, huh?), the Oregon-USC game was officially named part of the “Big Ten Rivalry Series Presented by Venmo.” So feel free to Venmo me @Brett-McMurphy to show your appreciation for all my incredible insight and predictions. (Cue cricket noises)
My Position: Oregon to cover -2½ at 55%

Texas A&M at LSU

On Wednesday’s SEC conference call, LSU coach Lane Kiffin said last week’s game against Ole Miss was the Rebels’ “Super Bowl.” He also claimed the Rebels broke SEC rules with “music being played all the way through the snap.” Four days after the Ole Miss loss, Kiffin is still doing his Rebel Yell – for any old-school Billy Idol fans out there. Kiffin’s still talking about Ole Miss, Ole Miss, Ole Miss. Well on Saturday the Tigers play Texas A&M. Before the season, I had this game circled to play against LSU. An impossible flat spot. The fact the Aggies are coming off a loss, only provides more value.
My Position: Texas A&M to cover +10½ at 55%

Missouri at Mississippi State

Since 2021 when two Top 25 teams are playing and the lower ranked team is favored against a higher ranked team, the lower ranked team has covered at a 65% clip. That’s the scenario here as No. 19 Missouri is an underdog against No. 24 Mississippi State. QB Kamario Taylor, who has the nation’s fifth-best QB rating with 11 TD passes and only one interception, leads the Bulldogs. For the second consecutive season Mississippi State is off to a 3-0 start, but this year feels much different.
My Position: Miss State to cover -5½ at 53%

Missouri State at SMU

The last in a long list of flat spots for Saturday is in Big D. SMU comes off its huge game – and loss – at Louisville. Now the Mustangs are expected to cover a five-touchdown spread against Missouri State? Last season SMU was a four-TD favorite against the Bears and only won 28-10. SMU sleepwalks.
My Position: Missouri State to cover +35½ at 55%

Last week: 6-3
Record this season: 22-17

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