College football rankings: Most overrated, underrated teams this decade

Ask any college football fan and they'll be happy to tell you that rankings aren't what you would call an exact science. That team that was highly regarded in this or that poll will go on to lose a bunch of games and play out of contention. While that other school that everybody overlooked can get into a rhythm and make a run that surprises the world. Which teams were too over-hyped, and which flew under the radar in the last decade?

Ranking College Football's Most Overrated, Underrated Teams this Decade

For preseason rankings, we're using the Stassen Preseason Consensus, which combines 19 different football ranking services and takes an average of each team's position

2023

Overrated: USC
Preseason avg: No. 6
Final ranking: Unranked

Underrated: Missouri
Preseason avg: Unranked
Final ranking: No. 8

— USC looked like a playoff contender with quarterback Caleb Williams returning, but lost five games after another woeful defensive performance.

— Predicted to finish 6th in the SEC East by a consensus of rankings, Mizzou didn't even get AP top 25 votes in the preseason, but won 11 games and the Cotton Bowl.

2022

Overrated: Texas A&M
Preseason average: No. 10
Final Top 25 ranking: Unranked

Underrated: TCU
Preseason average: Unranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 2

— Despite signing the best recruiting class in 247Sports history, Texas A&M went just 2-6 in SEC play and 5-7 overall followed by an exodus of outgoing transfers.

— First-year head coach Sonny Dykes led TCU from oblivion to the College Football Playoff as the No. 3 seed.

2021

Overrated: Iowa State
Preseason average: No. 7
Final Top 25 ranking: Unranked

Underrated: Michigan
Preseason average: No. 23
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 3

— ISU earned its highest-ever preseason ranking, but started 2-2 and lost four of its last six games.

— Coming off a 2-win season in 2020, the Wolverines won the Big Ten and made their first playoff.

2020

Overrated: Penn State
Preseason average: No. 6
Final Top 25 ranking: Unranked

Underrated: Cincinnati
Preseason average: No. 25
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 8

— PSU started 0-5, the school's worst open to a season since 1887, which is to say, ever.

— Cincy ran the table and won the AAC but lost to Georgia by a field goal in the Peach Bowl

2019

Overrated: Washington
Preseason average: No. 11
Final Top 25 ranking: Unranked

Underrated: Minnesota
Preseason average: Unranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 10

— Although the Huskies started 4-1 and beat USC, they lost four of the next six and dropped out of the rankings.

— Third-year coach P.J. Fleck led the Gophers to their first 11-win season since 1904 and beat Auburn in the Outback Bowl.

2018

Overrated: Wisconsin
Preseason average: No. 6
Final Top 25 ranking: Unranked

Underrated: Washington State
Preseason average: Unranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 10

— Wisconsin debuted at No. 4 in the AP, its best-ever preseason ranking, but lost five games.

— Mike Leach won a Wazzu-record 11 games as quarterback Gardner Minshew led college football in completions and attempts.

2017

Overrated: Florida State
Preseason average: No. 3
Final Top 25 ranking: Unranked

Underrated: UCF
Preseason average: Unranked
Final Top 25 ranking: 6

— FSU lost quarterback Deandre Francois in the opener and then five of its first seven games and six of its first nine.

— UCF was the only undefeated team in FBS, but didn't make the playoff. Never mind: Florida state legislators passed a resolution saying the Knights were the national champions anyway.

2016

Overrated: Notre Dame
Preseason average: No. 9
Final Top 25 ranking: Unranked

Underrated: Penn State
Preseason average: Not ranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 7

— The Irish lost to Texas in the opener, five of the first seven games, and in all went 4-8, the school's worst record since 2007.

— Though it started 2-2, Penn State won its next nine straight games, beat Ohio State, and won the Big Ten title.

2015

Overrated: Auburn
Preseason average: No. 7
Final Top 25 ranking: Unranked

Underrated: Houston
Preseason average: Unranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 8

— Auburn went 7-6 in Gus Malzahn's third season and was 1-3 against top 25 teams.

— Tom Herman's debut year at Houston resulted in a 10-0 record before a loss to UConn, but won his next three games, all against ranked teams, including over No. 9 Florida State in the Peach Bowl.

2014

Overrated: Oklahoma
Preseason average: No. 4
Final Top 25 ranking: Unranked

Underrated: TCU
Preseason average: Unranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 3

— OU started 4-0 but lost three games over five weeks, and by 34 to Clemson in the Athletic Bowl.

— TCU started OU's losing streak that year and moved to No. 25 and eventually the top 10 before routing 9th-ranked Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.

2013

Overrated: Georgia
Preseason average: No. 4
Final Top 25 ranking: Unranked

Underrated: Auburn
Preseason average: Unranked
Final Top 25 ranking: No. 2

— Georgia lost to Clemson in the opener and then two more later, including to unranked Vanderbilt, and then in the "Prayer at Jordan Hare" game against No. 7 Auburn.

— First-year coach Gus Malzahn won 12 of his first 13 games and beat Alabama in the "Kick Six Game," Auburn's second miraculous win that year, but lost the BCS title game by 3 to Florida State.