Predicting the preseason college football rankings is something Phil Steele is pretty good at, and now he’s come through with his latest projection as the first official AP top 25 poll is set to go live in the coming days.
Of the 160 teams in those rankings over the last 15 years, Steele correctly picked 152 of them, a success rate of 95 percent. If he says it, you can book it.
Now, the preseason magazine publisher extraordinaire has revealed his updated prediction for how AP top 25 voters will slot the best teams in college football looking ahead to the 2025 preseason rankings.
There was one notable change in Steele’s ranking prediction from his first poll back in February, with Tennessee falling out of the top 10 after quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s transfer.
Another team south of the Mason-Dixon Line took its place, and it’s one that also made waves at the quarterback position in this year’s active transfer portal, and could shake things up in the ACC and playoff picture as a result.
The acquisition of veteran quarterback Carson Beck was a decision that took college football by surprise, after it was expected he would leave Georgia for the NFL Draft.
But a very expensive intervention in the NIL market changed Beck’s mind, and in the process gives Miami a solid position as one of a few teams that can credibly make a run for the ACC Championship, and by consequence the College Football Playoff.
Still, the Hurricanes will likely lean more on a veteran rushing combo working behind a veteran offensive line and hope their defense, which allowed more than 30 points per game in five ACC contests a year ago, makes needed improvements under new coordinator Corey Hetherman.
Miami’s last ranking: No. 18
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Cade Klubnik finally lived up to his five-star billing last season, accounting for 43 all-purpose touchdowns while covering 3,639 yards in the air and throwing just six interceptions, leading the Tigers to top-five rankings in total offense and scoring.
He’s in position to replicate that production with a gifted wide receiver room that includes All-ACC first-teamer Antonio Williams in addition to sophomore Bryant Wesco, another highly-acclaimed recruit, and T.J. Moore spreading the field.
Clemson brought on Tom Allen from Penn State to call its defense after Wes Goodwin’s unit struggled against the rush a year ago, and the 30-plus year veteran inherits a talented front seven rotation that has the firepower to dominate around the line again.
Clemson’s last ranking: No. 14
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LSU was ranked No. 8 in the country in late October before a three-game disaster that kiboshed its playoff chances and bounced the Tigers out of the rankings in November.
A very talented group of incoming transfers in a class College Football HQ ranks as the second-best in the country should keep this team in contention.
Patrick Payton and Jack Pyburn are now coming off the edges, helping returning stars Harold Perkins and Whit Weeks on defense, and Nic Anderson and Barion Brown are in at receiver.
Garrett Nussmeier returns after leading college football’s 7th-ranked passing offense, throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns, and while he also gets leading target Aaron Anderson back, he’s working behind what will be a new offensive line.
LSU’s last ranking: Unranked
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Nine wins isn’t going to cut it for Kalen DeBoer, who finds himself already under some considerable pressure to right the ship after taking over for Nick Saban.
Now he’ll have to do it without Jalen Milroe putting up those highlight plays after the dual-threat star quarterback hit the pros, leaving DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb with a tall task of replacing the team’s most consequential playmaker.
Ty Simpson, a former five-star prospect from Martin, Tenn., looks like the heir apparent, and he’ll have some solid help in the form of one of college football’s most talented wide receiver groups, led by Ryan Williams, a budding highlight-reel player in his own right.
Alabama also has the luxury of returning much of its starting defense from last season with several key fixtures spurning the NFL to get another year at school, giving second-year coordinator Kane Wommack a solid foundation to work from.
Alabama’s last ranking: No. 17
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College football’s national title game runner-up returns a core foundation on both sides of the ball this season, but does have to make one very important, consequential change.
Riley Leonard is out of the picture at quarterback, and then Steve Angeli transferred during the spring, leaving redshirt freshman CJ Carr as the likely option at QB1, high on potential, but low on experience.
Having one of the nation’s premier backfields working behind him will prove more than helpful, as Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are back after combining for 1,871 yards and 24 touchdowns, helping lead the Irish to a long playoff run.
Likewise for wide receivers Jaden Greathouse, who had 233 yards off 13 catches and 3 scores in the playoff, alongside Virginia transfer Malachi Fields, who had over 800 yards in each of the last two seasons.
Chris Ash steps in to lead the Irish defense, boasting an experienced and deep rotation featuring Leonard Moore and Christian Gray in a gifted secondary, a strong linebacker group, and a veteran edge rushing combination.
Notre Dame’s last ranking: No. 2
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If offensive continuity is a key ingredient to making a deep College Football Playoff run, then the Nittany Lions are in position to do it again this postseason.
Drew Allar at quarterback, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen at tailback, and four returning offensive line starters form the core of what should be the Big Ten’s most accomplished offense, and one of the nation’s best.
The question is how Allar can maintain his production in the postseason, where his completion marks dropped from 74 percent to under 60, and whether Penn State has put reliable receiving talent around him to help out.
Kyron Hudson from USC, Trebor Pena from Syracuse, and Devonte Ross from Troy form a trio of transfer receiver additions who could change the narrative, combining for 2,446 yards and 20 touchdowns last season at their respective previous schools.
Jim Knowles came over to replace Tom Allen as defensive coordinator in one of college football’s most high-profile coaching changes after he helped lead Ohio State to a national championship, loaded at defensive end and in the secondary.
Penn State’s last ranking: No. 5
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Expect plenty of change on the Bulldogs’ offense after winning the SEC Championship, with new faces at quarterback, wide receiver, and especially on the offensive line, which is projected to install four new starters in front of presumptive QB1 Gunner Stockton.
At least he’ll have what should be an improved wide receiver corps this season after scoring transfers Zachariah Branch from USC and Noah Thomas from Texas A&M, while Colbie Young and Dillon Bell return alongside solid tight ends Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie.
Nate Frazier returns to Georgia’s backfield after showing important flashes as a freshman, but overall the unit needs a face lift after ranking just 15th among 16 SEC teams in rushing and 102nd nationally in total output.
Christen Miller, Jordan Hall, and Xzavier McLeod form the core of another strong defensive line, and while the edge rushing position remains in flux after losing key talent to the NFL, the Bulldogs boast an elite linebacker and secondary rotation.
Georgia played marquee road games against Ole Miss, Texas, and Alabama last season, going 1-2 in that stretch, but all three of those matchups are at home this fall, which could be the springboard to get this team back into SEC title contention again.
Georgia’s last ranking: No. 6
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Going undefeated and winning the conference championship is about as good as it could have been for Oregon’s debut in the Big Ten last season, but it all ended when the consensus No. 1 seed dropped an ugly loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.
Now, the loss of several experienced contributors on both sides of the ball could present a backslide for the Ducks, but the reinforcements aren’t exactly slouches.
Dante Moore, a former five-star prospect with starting experience at UCLA, steps in at quarterback in place of Dillon Gabriel, but he’s working behind a line that replaces an expected four starters and lost expected lead receiver Evan Stewart to an offseason injury.
Makhi Hughes, a transfer tailback from Tulane, and incoming freshman wide receiver Dakorien Moore should be quality skill inputs for the Ducks’ offense to build around.
Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti are expected to emerge as one of college football’s top pass rushing duos, while Oregon’s secondary undergoes some notable change, including the addition of Purdue transfer Dillon Thieneman.
Oregon’s last ranking: No. 3
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College football’s most famous backup finally steps into the limelight for good as Arch Manning, the former consensus No. 1 overall recruit, takes over at quarterback.
He’ll run a Longhorns offense that replaces four of the offensive line starters in front of him, but those blockers have experience working with Manning during second-team practices over the last two seasons.
Texas also boasts a skilled running back room led by Quintrevion Wisner, who ran for over 1,000 yards last season, alongside playmaking wide receivers Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore, in addition to Stanford transfer Emmett Mosley, who had 525 yards and 6 TDs as a freshman last year.
Defensively, the Longhorns secured notable transfers and recruiting gains along the front seven, a unit that returns edge rusher Colin Simmons, who had 9 sacks a year ago, and arguably the nation’s top linebacker in Anthony Hill.
Jelani McDonald and Michael Taaffee lead a promising safety rotation while Malik Muhammad and Jaylon Guilbeau form a talented pair of outside corner defenders.
Texas’ last ranking: No. 4
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College football’s defending national champions have quite a road back to the playoff, watching an exodus of coaching and player talent walk out the door after last season.
Both coordinators, each critical to the Buckeyes’ title run, are gone, their stalwart center, key edge blockers, elite edge rushers, two thousand-yard backs, and what proved to be a very productive quarterback, all gone.
But the cupboards aren’t exactly bare. Ohio State could have the nation’s top receiver room, and definitely has the best single pass catcher in Jeremiah Smith, and he’s joined by a strong supporting cast of Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss, alongside Purdue transfer tight end Max Klare.
Julian Sayin is a former five-star quarterback recruit who left Alabama after Nick Saban’s retirement, and he appears to be the favorite to inherit Will Howard’s QB1 role, but he still needs to earn the trust of this offense.
Caleb Downs at safety leads a strong pass defense rotation next to cornerback Davison Igbinosun and Sonny Styles moving into a linebacker role.
Brian Hartline, OSU’s insanely-successful and highly-respected wide receiver recruiter, steps in to take control of this offense, while former Belichick protege Matt Patricia inherits this defense. The pieces are there, but can Ryan Day put them together?
Ohio State’s last ranking: No. 1
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