College Football Value Bet: Michigan +8.5

What a great rivalry game Saturday! Ohio St is an 8.5 point favorite at Michigan. Both teams are ranked in the top 5 and the winner should* make the college football playoff.

Why is Ohio St such a big favorite on the road? Because they are on fire! They just annihilated #7 Michigan St by 47 points, after dismantling #19 Purdue by 28 and they’ve won nine in a row. The Buckeyes are led by Heisman hopeful QB CJ Stroud who completed 17 straight passes last week. Michigan by contrast lost to that same Michigan St team a few weeks back and struggled to beat Penn St after that. Michigan looks good, Ohio St looks unstoppable.

Ohio St’s annihilation of Michigan St is what’s fresh in the betting public’s mind and this line is inflated as a result – CJ Stroud led Ohio St to four touchdowns in just twenty minutes of play. However, no team is as good as they look on their best day and Ohio St may have peaked last week. They are a super strong team, but 8.5 points on the road is too many. This line is inflated and the value bet is the Wolverines+8.5!

*barring an upset in the big 10 championship game and things breaking really right for other teams