College football Week 11: Top 25 betting guide

Vandy just doesn't have the depth of the other good SEC programs. None of their wins are in conference and they are 1-4 ATS against the league.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 31 - Vanderbilt 7
This game has a low total and a large spread. Kentucky is still the play all the way though. 

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Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Spread: Illinois -6.5
Total: 44.5

Illinois lost last week but they still have the inside track on the Big Ten West. They need this win though as Purdue is one of a few teams sitting just one loss behind the Illini. These are two very different teams. Illinois is happy to run the ball and tough it out while Purdue is more likely to attack through the air. 

Illinois was a heavy home favorite last week and fell short. The question is whether that is an indicator of them not being as good as we thought, or not. They are favored by much less against Purdue this week.

Score Prediction: Illinois 38 - Purdue 21.
There is not a lot of value with either side here. This feels pretty fair.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen
Spread: Notre Dame -16.5
Total: 39.5

Notre Dame had won of the most stunning results of the season last week. Not just beating Clemson, but beating them up. It was really quite shocking. They are not going to the playoffs, but it will be interesting to see how they follow it up. Navy has had success against Notre Dame but over the last few years, the program has really fallen. They do get an ND team that could be looking ahead though. 

Notre Dame has had a wide range of outcomes this season. They do appear to have found some things that work on offense now so as long as they are prepared for the option, this game should be an easy one. 

Game Prediction: Notre Dame 38 - Navy 17
ND should not have to sweat this one, but they might give up a TD early. That seems to always happen against Navy.

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LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks
Spread: Arkansas -3.5
Total: 61.5

LSU is off the big win last week against Alabama. I was on the Tigers' side but I did not think they would pull out the win. Now they just have to avoid a letdown against an opponent that is capable of beating them. Arkansas has been up and down this season. At its very best, Arkansas is able to compete well in the SEC but we have not seen as much consistency as they showed last year.

This line is all about whether we can get an A-game from LSU or not. If we do this line will look silly. That is the way I am leaning. 

Score Prediction: LSU 31 - Arkansas 21
I still like LSU a lot, even though this appears to be a bad spot. Nice teaser too.

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Missouri Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers
Spread: Tennessee -19.5
Total: 56.5

The Vols lost for the first time last week, against Georgia. The game wasn't close, but that does not mean Tennessee is not an elite team this season. I am super curious how they show up for this one because there is still a lot on the line for Tennessee. Missouri can be good enough on defense to stifle some teams, but just because the Vols were mortal against UGA does not mean Mizzou is up to the task.

If Tennessee is right they should win this game with ease. They kind of need style points at this point too if they want to stay in the running for a CFP slot. 

Score Prediction: Tennessee 45 - Missouri 16
Mizzou offense is just too ineffective to keep the Vols in range.

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Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes
Spread: Ohio State -39.5
Total: 60.5

The Hoosiers are having another poor season. It seems like all of their magic from two years ago has left the program as they are not even competitive most weeks. As for Ohio State, they are the undefeated team that nobody seems to be talking about. They are winning, but have to show that the game against Northwestern last week was an aberration, not a sign of vulnerability.

This is a massive line. OSU failed to cover a similar one last week but the Wildcats are good at slowing things down and the weather was poor. OSU can win this big. 

Score Prediction: Ohio State 52 - Indiana 10
With a big number like this, there is not a ton of wiggle room but we can still get behind the Buckeyes. 

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Liberty Flames at Connecticut Huskies
Spread: Liberty -13.5
Total: 45.5

It is pretty amazing the job Hugh Freeze is doing at Liberty. He has them at 8-1 with wins over Arkansas and BYU and their only loss was to Wake Forest by a point. This team is good. UConn is better than they have been for sure, but I wouldn't quite call them good yet. They are one win away from bowl eligibility though. 

Liberty is 5-4 ATS on the season, while the Huskies are 8-2. That is because the market has been super slow to catch up to what is going on in Storrs. 

Score Prediction: Liberty 38 - Connecticut 21
We don't get to see a ton of either of these teams but from what we do, Liberty has more than enough to win big on the road.

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Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines
Spread: Michigan -30.5
Total: 49.5

This one might get ugly. Only Georgia has really looked better than Michigan so far this season and they are built to methodically wear teams down and once they do they can score in bunches. Nebraska has nothing going for it right now other than the promise of better days in the future. Being on the road is not going to make a difference.

This is a big line but Michigan has covered bigger. They are just so solid on both sides of the ball and they can wait you out to make mistakes, then pounce. 

Score Prediction: Michigan 49 - Nebraska 13
Michigan should win with ease but there is not a lot of value on this game.

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Maryland Terrapins at Penn State Nittany Lions
Spread: Penn State -10.5
Total: 56.5

Coming into the season it looked like the gap between these teams was pretty wide but they are just a win apart and having solid but unspectacular seasons. Maryland is better at throwing the ball but Penn State runs it well and they have better defensive personnel. These teams should make for a good match even though there is not much at stake. 

This line has been coming down during the week. I think the move makes sense and there might be some more points shaved as the game approaches. 

Score Prediction: Penn State 35 - Maryland 28
At this number, I like the visitors a lot. The Terps can score. 

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Alabama Crimson Tide at Ole Miss Rebels
Spread:  Alabama -11.5
Total: 64.5

Alabama lost in OT at LSU last week and now they are at Ole Miss. Ah, life in the SEC West. The Rebels are not as good on defense as LSU but they can definitely force the Crimson Tide to keep scoring with their balanced attack. They kind of have Alabama right where they want them and have a lot to play for. 

This line feels way off for me. Sure, Alabama is not going to roll over, but coming into the Grove and being expected to win this much does not look right ...Until it actually happens. 

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 38 - Alabama 34
I think we are in for another close one and another close loss for Alabama. Piling on?

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Boston College Eagles at NC State Wolfpack
Spread: NC State -16.5
Total: 41.5

The fact that NC State is still in the Top 20 with their QB out for the year is a testament to how good this team could have been. Their defense has been strong all season long. Normally, I like Boston College to bag at least one unexpected team per season, but the Eagles have just been bad this season and it is hard to see how they get out of it. 

I am not in love with this line because the Wolfpack offense is just not that great right now. They might not give up more than six points though. 

Score Prediction: NC State 24 - Boston College 6
They should get the win and cover but there are better values out there. 

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Louisville Cardinals at Clemson Tigers
Spread: Clemson -7
Total: 52.5

The Tigers were awful last week and might have taken down the whole ACC with them as a result. Now they are looking for some redemption but that loss kind of felt like a turning point in the wrong direction. As for Louisville, they have been quietly very good of late, they might have saved the coach's job, though another win here would help. 

Before last week this spread might have been more than 10 so this could be a great spot to buy low. I am just not sold on the Tigers right now. 

Score Prediction: Clemson 27 - Louisville 24
They probably win but I am not going to back the Tigers the rest of the year.

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UCF Knights at Tulane Green Wave
Spread: Tulane -1.5
Total: 54.5

Love this game. I love it when a team is on the rise and gets a chance to prove it, especially against a quality team like UCF. The Knights are good. Maybe not as good as they were a few years back, but the offense can hum with the best of them. Tulane is a little more staid in its approach. They are playing great complimentary football and don't make many mistakes. 

This line is showing that the markets think UCF is the better team, I agree, but that is no guarantee they are going to play like it.

Score Prediction: UCF 38 - Tulane 28
I think the visitors get the pace they want in this one and collect a big win. These teams might play again in the AAC title game.

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Iowa State Cyclone at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Spread: Iowa State -1.5
Total: 48.5

What a wild season the Cowboys are having. They are 5-0 at home but have lost their last three road games and the last two were not even close. When you lose your QB there is no telling what can happen, ISU is looking to win on the road with a defense that is very, very good. It might even be enough to do so. This one is a super tough call. 

OSU QB Spencer Sanders is questionable and without him, the Cowboys have been bad. Are they really going to lose at home though? 

Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 24 - Iowa State 21
I am leaning toward Ok State. This one is not going to be pretty, just bet it and forget it.

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Washington Huskies at Oregon Ducks
Spread: Oregon -12.5
Total 72.5

This is a rivalry spot and those are dangerous when one team has so much more on the line. Oregon has been dominating since its early loss to Georgia while Washington has not impressed much since September. The Huskies do have enough talent to give the Ducks a game though. They are just very inconsistent. 

This line is saying it won't be close and it is hard to disagree. The Ducks A game is definitely better than Washington's.

Score Prediction: Oregon 45 - Washington 31
Not a ton of value, but the Ducks keep rolling.

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Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears
Spread: Baylor -2.5
Total: 52.5

Both of these teams are in the hunt for that second-place slot in the Big 12 at 4-2. That makes this close to an elimination game with just a few games to go. Kansas State has not been as sharp lately and Baylor is usually pretty buttoned up. This one probably comes down to whoever makes fewer mistakes and both teams are good like that.

Home field seems to matter a lot in the Big 12. Baylor gets the nod at home which makes a lot of sense. 

Score Prediction: Baylor 24 - Kansas State 21
Both of these teams are dangerous in underdog roles. With such a small line it is hard not to like Baylor though.  

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Georgia Bulldogs at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Spread: Georgia -16.5
Total: 52.5

The Dawgs have asserted that they are the best team in the land once again. I am not sure there was ever really doubt, to be frank. They are just the complete package this season. Again! Mississippi State is fading this season but they could give Georgia some problems, potentially. Every year since Mike Leach came to Starkville, they tend to have one of those games where their passing attack is unstoppable. Even though this feels like it is an unlikely spot. 

This line is a bit modest but is still a good size for a road team coming off a big game like Georgia has last week. 

Score Prediction: Georgia 42 - Mississippi State 17
The Dawgs might be a little sluggish at the start but in the end, they win and advance.

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North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Spread: Wake Forest -4.5
Total: 78.5

These teams love to put up points and have proven pretty consistent at that. Drake Maye has been one of the best QBs in the whole nation this season, probably better than Sam Howell ever was, especially when you consider the support pieces he has. At Wake, they have lost their last two games, scoring just 42 points combined. That is usually what they score per game. The offense has been so good for so long a rebound seems inevitable. 

That total tells you everything you need to know about this game. The team that has the ball last probably gets it. 

Score Prediction: North Carolina 49 - Wake Forest 45
UNC is one of the few teams that can keep up with Wake in a barn burner like this one should be.

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TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns
Spread:  Texas -7
Total: 65.5

Texas' best game can be at a very high level, but it is hard to know when we are going to get one of those. At the same time, TCU, seems to get better over the course of every game. They do have to avoid their slow struggles though as the Longhorns are more than capable. TCU is perfect in the Big 12 so they have a cushion for the league title game. 

This line is giving Texas a lot more respect than I expected. I am not sure where that comes from other than being at home. 

Score Prediction: TCU 38 - Texas 31
The Horned Frogs are a great value as the dog. Take the points but make an ML sprinkle too. 

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Florida State Seminoles at Syracuse Orange
Spread: Florida State -7.5
Total: 50.5

The Orange are the higher-ranked team but they are underdogs at home. FSU is on the rise and they are 2-1 on the road this season. Last weekend they destroyed Miami, it was impressive but the Canes are just terrible. With Syracuse, we are seeing a steady decline from a team that was overrated early. How bad are they though?

That hook is the key here. There are trying to lure bettors to the Syracuse side and being a home underdog always gets attention. 

Score Prediction: Florida State 31 - Syracuse 20
FSU is not back, but they appear to be on their way. You can buy in early and tease it to get a better number.

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Cal Bears at Oregon State Beavers
Spread: Oregon State -12.5
Total: 47.5

It is funny the way these programs have passed each other, OSU on the way up and Cal on the way down. That is why Jonathan Smith is mentioned for bigger jobs and Justin Wilcox might be a DC again next year. The Cal offense just never really got going this year while the Beavers, though not electric have minimized their weaknesses on both sides of the ball. 

This line is bigger than expected but believing in the Beavers feels like the smart play. Being at home helps too. 

Score Prediction: Oregon State 31 - Cal 14
My fear is that OSU might play it a little safe late but Cal still has to do something to win. 

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Stanford Cardinal at Utah Utes
Spread:  Utah -23.5
Total: 53.5

When Utah first joined the Pac-12 these were among the most physical battles in the league conference. Now Stanford has really fallen off so there is not much crackle. Utah has a couple of losses but at their best, the Utes are as good as anyone in the league. They are among a few teams with just one conference loss so they are in the thick of it for the title. 

That is a big number for a team that is never really in a rush to score. The Utes are great at wearing teams down though. 

Score Prediction: Utah 45 - Stanford 17
Look for the Utes to be in control throughout the game. This one will not be close for long.

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Arizona Wildcats at UCLA Bruins
Spread: UCLA -19.5
Total: 77.5

Nobody is talking about UCLA much these days, even though they are also in that group of teams with just one PAC 12 loss behind Oregon. They have a quality senior QB leading the team too. Arizona has just one league win and has not lived up to any of the promise we saw early. Wildcats coach Jedd Fisch still has a major rebuilding project on his hands. 

This is a big number for a team that is not great on defense. The total says there will be a lot of points in this one and that is a little worrisome. 

Score Prediction: UCLA 49 - Arizona 27
The Bruins just get this one, in terms of the spread. There are some better values out there.