College football Week 12 What We Learned: Lessons for Week 13

What We Learned

SEC Best Conference in America?

For starters, I don't know why some of these teams scheduled cupcake games so late in the season. I know if is a tradition but it is also a bad look, SEC. Back to the field of play, what are we supposed to make of the results of Tennessee, Florida, and Ole Miss? The Vols might have fallen the furthest but the strength of the league is often measured by those at the top. Beyond Georgia, are we sure there is an SEC team that is really elite this season? Even Georgia only won by 10 this week.

Betting Takeaway: A pro-SEC bias may lead to inflated lines to fade during bowl season. 

OMG Texas A&M

I don't know what is going on with this Texas A&M team this season. (nobody does it seems) I know spreads are relative but I do not see how a team that is averaging 20ppg can be favored by 33 points. That was the case this past week with the Aggies hosting UMass. Sure Texas A&M won, but of course, they didn't cover that big number. 

Betting Takeaway: Yes, you can say a number is "way off" and be right sometimes. 

More MACtion Craziness (Bowl Implications?)

Five mid-week games gave us four road winners in the MAC. No team from the MAC is going to be in the playoffs, or even in a New Year's Day bowl game. That said, I think these programs get better efforts with these games than we see in some other conferences where teams feel like they are going through the motions. Plus these programs are not going through the churn of their coaches and players in the transfer portal. 

Betting takeaway: Ball State vs. Miami of Ohio is actually one of the biggest games of the week. Both teams need a win to get bowl eligible on Tuesday night. 

Fresno State Recovery

At one point this season Fresno State was 1-4, including a road loss at UConn. Since then they have rattled off six straight wins and are looking at a rematch with Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Boise State, by the way, was the last team to beat them. Fresno came into the season looking like one of the best G5 teams in the country, They have not been that all season long but they might close as one of the best.

Betting Takeway: Look to take the points with Fresno in the MWC title game. 

The Return of Troy 

In Neal Brown's last three seasons Troy won at least 10 games. In the three seasons that followed they never won more than five. This year, Jon Sumrall is making a good first impression with a nine-win season out of the chute. The Sun Belt has been competitive too. Old impressions sometimes die hard in this game and after years of being a great bet, and than a bad bet, the Trojans are a team to back again. 

Betting Takeaway: Make sure you aren't catching yourself in old mental models  - Nebraska, Iowa, Stanford etc.