College football Week 5: Top 25 betting guide

Friday night also gives Washington a chance to prove they are real by beating a solid UCLA team on the road. It might not be much of an advantage for the Bruins to be at home though given their inability to draw a crowd.

I have been loving what I have seen out West this season but none of the matchups in the Pac-12 are exciting this season. Those are coming, don't worry.

Here is a look at the Top 25 games this week.

Top 25 Betting Outlook 

Washington Huskies at UCLA Bruins

Spread: Washington -2.5
Total: 64.5

It is hard not to like what we have seen from the Huskies so far. The new coach has energized the team and the new quarterback has been executing flawlessly. Washington is 4-0 SUATS and their opening win against Kent State looks even better now. UCLA is also 4-0 but just 2-2 ATS. They have yet to post a quality win this season and nearly lost outright to South Alabama. Whoever wins this stays in the hunt with a perfect record. 

It says a lot that the Huskies are favored, even on the road. I agree with that positioning and see good value with Washington. They are playing strong defense and their offense has more punch than it has had in years. They can create big plays on both sides of the ball. 

Score Prediction: Washington 31 - UCLA 19

I am not expecting Washington to win the Pac-12 but only the best teams in the league are going to beat them this season.

Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Spread: Minnesota -12.5
Total: 51.5

Minnesota is another undefeated team, the only one left in the Big Ten West. They beat up on Michigan State in their last game, a contest that revealed the strengths of the Gophers on offense and defense. They are second in running the football and first in yards allowed on defense. Purdue escaped with a win last week against Florida Atlantic. They have no bad losses this season as the teams that beat them have yet to lose (Syracuse and Penn State). Purdue is not as dynamic on offense as they were a year ago though. 

Minnesota has to be a bit overrated with their hot start but they are still a good play at home. With the way they run the ball look for them to grab an early lead and choke out the game. It is not going to be pretty just effective. 

Score Prediction: Minnesota 34 - Purdue 14

Purdue will take some shots but come up short against one of the steadiest teams in the Big Ten this season. 

Oklahoma Sooners at TCU Horned Frogs

Spread: Oklahoma -6.5
Total: 68.5

Until last week Oklahoma was heading to the playoffs, even in this transition year. Now you have to wonder a little and that doubt has to be in the locker room. too. Heading to TCU is no gimme, even though they are in the first year under a new coach too. TCU is 3-0 SUATS, their best win was against rival SMU who had to be motivated to beat their former coach. This will be a good test for both new regimes in how they prepare their teams, because whoever lands that first punch is going to have a major edge in this spot. 

Oklahoma being favored makes sense, even at 3-0 TCU is not even in the rankings. I do like the home side though. They are balanced offensively and can play catch-up if they need to.  This one is likely won by whoever has the ball last so the 6.5-point cushion looks good. 

Score Prediction: TCU 38 - Oklahoma 35

Yep, why not predict the upset at home with the Horned Frogs. 

Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes

Spread: Michigan -10.5
Total: 42.5

There is a lot going on here. Michigan has shown explosiveness on offense they haven't in the recent past while Iowa is very limited on offense. Michigan was forced to play a full game last week against Maryland and didn't cover. Hitting the road in the Big Ten is never easy, especially when that trip is to Iowa, a place where highly ranked teams have often been drawn into rock fights. 

If you are all in on Big Blue you have to pick them here. It is a very real possibility they could win this game 14-0. That hook helps the home side and I am not convinced this becomes more than a one score game.

Score Prediction Michigan 24 - Iowa 16

You probably don't want to watch this one live, even if you bet it. 

Kentucky Wildcats at Ole Miss Rebels

Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
Total: 53.5

I am very interested in this game. I like both teams and both can make a statement by building on their 4-0 starts. Kentucky has its ups and downs offensively but they are getting their top RB back in the lineup. If Will Levis wants to be a first-round pick this is a game to show it. For Ole Miss, they are more dependent on the running game than they have been in the past this season. That is not necessarily a bad thing but it means they have to out-physical the Wildcats which is tough to do. 

I am looking for a close game here so the Wildcats offer good value. There is a small chance the Rebels get rolling but when these programs met two years ago. Ole Miss upset Kentucky on the road in OT, winning by a point. It might be the Wildcats' turn to return the favor. 

Score Prediction: Kentucky 27 - Ole Miss 24.

If this one gets to 7 Kentucky might be the pick of the day. 

Oregon State Beavers at Utah Utes

Spread: Utah -10.5
Total: 54.5

I am still not sure what to make of Oregon State. They lost last week for the first time but they played USC better than anyone has all season. Utah is not the place you want to go off a loss though. They should play well but it might look different. Since their opening loss at Florida, Utah has covered three straight and not given up more than 13 points. They are so physical and can be ruthlessly efficient. 

The Beavers have covered the last two in the series, including upsetting Utah last season. I am not sure that helps their case in this one, more likely it adds fuel and focus for Utah, who knows it cannot afford another loss this season. 

Score Prediction: Utah 37 - Oregon State 17

The Beavers are going to play well and still lose by a decent margin.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ohio State Buckeyes

Spread: Ohio State -40.5
Total: 59.5

Rutgers lost last week at home against Iowa. They do have a couple of close road wins over BC and Temple, but a visit to the Horseshoe looks problematic. Their 3-1 record is a nice base but they might not be favored in another game all season. Ohio State is 4-0 but just 2-2 ATS. They had a great win last week as they dominated Wisconsin and even though they are piling up points you can argue they have another gear because their top playmaker, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, has been hurt and not much of a factor. 

This is a monster number for a conference game. Ohio State is among the few elite teams in the nation though so don't be scared off by it. Their ability to score quickly makes it easy to get comfortable with such a big number.

Score Prediction: Ohio State 55 - Rutgers 7

There is a lot of work to do for Rutgers and this ugly result is a lump they are going to have to swallow.

Northwestern Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions

Spread: Penn State -25.5
Total: 51.5

When Northwestern beat Nebraska in Dublin to start the season there was optimism that this would be a bounce-back season, which has often been the case for the Wildcats. Three straight losses, including one to FCS Southern Illinois, has told us otherwise. This is not the feisty group teams need to fear. Penn State is 4-0, 3-1 ATS, and looking really good this should be an easy win for the Nittany Lions who are better than NW pretty much everywhere.

The only caveat for backing PSU is that they are at Michigan in their next game. They do have a week off though so perhaps they leave the starters in for an extra series just to get some quality reps. 

Score Prediction: Penn State 45 - Northwestern 17

There is value with the home side but there are better options on the board for sure.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears

Spread: Baylor -2.5
Total: 56.5

Oklahoma State is one of a few teams in the Big 12 that has yet to lose this season. If they can win in this spot they will have climbed over a major hurdle on the way back to the conference championship. That is where they lost to Baylor a year ago as Spencer Sanders had one of his worst performances as a starter. Baylor is battle-tested, having played a couple of strong opponents already. Being at home helps, too. 

This is the third time these teams are playing in a year. Being at home looks like enough of an advantage for the Bears in this spot. As long as that number holds. 

Score Prediction:  Baylor 26 - Oklahoma State 23

This is a great teaser spot as you get Baylor down to a pick'em at home. 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Florida State Seminoles

Spread: Florida State -6.5
Total: 64.5

This game would have been even more fun if Wake had won last week against Clemson. Now the Demon Deacons have a chance to throw a wrench in Florida State's plans for this season. The Seminoles are 4-0 but even though the coach is getting a chance to breathe I am not sure what to make of their start. The best we can say is that it is encouraging. I am not sure it is a true indicator of great things to come though. 

I love Wake's offense and if they can do what they did against Clemson last week I do not see how FSU is going to slow them down enough for a comfortable win. The value is with the visitors. 

Score Prediction; Wake Forest 41 - Florida State 38

Another great teaser spot but this is a great spot for an upset too. Wake just puts pressure on you with the way they keep coming on offense.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks

Spread: Alabama -17.5
Total: 60.5

Since their scare against Texas, Alabama has beaten a couple of weak opponents by a combined score of 118-10. This will be a real opponent for the Crimson Tide and they are going to have to play well to beat them. Arkansas was undefeated until last week when their kick doinked back into the field of play against Texas A&M. They are probably not as good as they were a year ago but they might be good enough to give Alabama a game. Alabama isn't as good as it was a year ago either.  

This feels like a good value spot with Arkansas. Not only are we getting that hook on the 17 but probably a full 3 points for the loss. I don't know if they can beat them but I do think the Hogs can hang with them. 

Score Prediction: Alabama 41 - Arkansas 31

I feel like this one might come down as kickoff approaches but as long as you are getting more than +14 hit it.

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Spread: Mississippi State -3.5
Total: 45.5

Both teams are 3-1. Texas A&M suffered that disappointing loss to App State but until they lose a game in the SEC they are in it. They narrowly escaped last week against Arkansas, needing a little luck. Their defense can be good enough though. It is going to have to be as Mike Leach has the Bulldogs' passing game rolling with Will Rogers at QB. You might know what is coming but it is very hard to stop so they should never be out of this game. 

The Bulldogs' only loss was at LSU and I was not surprised they are favorites at home this week. I was never all in on A&M so fading them on the road makes sense. I don't like that hook though. I might buy that half point. 

Score Prediction: Mississippi State 27 - Texas A&M 20

Sorry to repeat myself but this is very teaser friendly. 

Georgia Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers

Spread: Georgia -28
Total: 54.5

Georgia was sluggish against Kent State last week. It was a surprise but ultimately meaningless, as long as they keep winning they are in the playoffs. Their best is still as good as anyone in the country, if not better. Missouri is 2-2 after a loss to Auburn last week. That was a game they could have won but overall it is hard to see many league wins coming for the Tigers this season. They are lucky they play Vanderbilt later in the season. 

Last year Mizzou covered in this one, even though they lost by more than 30 points. I do not think they are going to be so lucky. Look for the Dawgs to overwhelm the Tigers in every facet on the way to a commanding win.

Score Prediction: Georgia 45 - Missouri 7

That looks like a lot of points but it really isn't. Sorry if you got burned by UGA last week.

NC State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers
Spread: Clemson -6.5
Total:42.5

This is my game of the day because if we get an upset we could be getting a change of the guard too. NC State has looked pretty good, but not as good as I have wanted them to. Their win over Texas Tech has increased in value though. Clemson escaped Wake Forest last week. The offense was potent but they were not supposed to give up that many points to any team in the ACC this season. There are questions about the Tigers for this one, even at home. 

NC State beat Clemson last season at home, in overtime. They just couldn't get enough done elsewhere to truly make some noise. A road win over the Tigers would open eyes though. I think they can get it done as there are not any glaring weaknesses to this team. It will be about poise and they should be confident.

Score Prediction: NC State 30 - Clemson 24

Backing the Wolfpack with the points is the safer play but why not go for it a little.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Pitt Panthers

Spread: Pitt -21.5
Total: 48.5

The Yellow Jackets finally cut bait with coach Geoff Collins. It was the right move but I am not expecting this team to be able to rise up and save their season in any meaningful way. They have not scored more than 10 points in a game against FBS competition this season. Pitt has a loss to Tennessee that hurts them nationally but with the way the other team in the division have looked they are a good bet to get back to the ACC Championship Game. 

This is a big number against a team with a lot of unknowns off of the coaching switch. Even if things get a little better for the Yellow Jackets the Panthers should win with ease. 

Score Prediction: Pitt 38 - Georgia Tech 14

Pitt likely covers but this is a pass. I don't expect much from GT but I want to see if there is anything new on the field before I start fading them again.

Arizona State Sun Devils at USC Trojans

Spread: USC -25.5
Total: 60.5

As expected, ASU was beaten badly by Utah last week. That was always going to be a rough matchup and the turmoil around the team only makes things worse. That was at home and things are not getting any easier this week. The question is how much worse can things get. USC got a win and a dose of humility last week against Oregon State. There is nothing wrong with that but they have shown me enough that they can win with ease against struggling teams.

This is a big number, more than the 17 points the Trojans scored against the Beavers. I am still a big believer in the Trojans though. Getting them back to scoring in the 40s and 50 should lead to an easy win. 

Score Prediction: USC 52 - Arizona State 13

USC is probably a little undervalued off of last week's struggles. 

Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks

Spread: Oregon -17
Total: 63.5

Stanford has played two league games already and has not been competitive in either. Losses to USC and Washington were expected and so if another as they tour the top of the Pac-12. This program has nothing it can lean on right now. Oregon saved the meaning of their season with a major comeback victory at Wazzu last week. That ugly loss to Georgia is what it is but this team can compete with most teams in the nation.

The Ducks are 2-0 SUATS at home this season. They are still working through the kinks of having a new coach but I don't see this game as a stumbling block.

Score Prediction: Oregon 38 - Stanford 16

Watch out for a late TD that might cost us the cover. The Stanford coach is not going to let his team quit.