College Football's Top 10 Programs, And Where Notre Dame Ranks

Before providing the ranking we have to provide a standard. What makes a program a Top 10? There are plenty of different markers that can be considered, but there are three that I look at:

*** Recent Success - I look at what teams have done the previous five seasons (2018-22). Overall record, championships, playoff appearances, head-to-head against other teams in the ranking and consistency.

*** Trajectory Moving Forward - This looks at a combination of the current situation and where the program is moving forward. That includes a look at the coach, recruiting success and where a program is trending.

Obviously when looking at a new coach the focus on the recent success has to be looked at a bit differently. With that being said, here is my Top 10 programs in college football moving forward. All the statistics provided are for the past five seasons.

10. UTAH UTES

Record: 43-18 (.705 win percentage)
Playoff Appearances: None

PAST

Head coach Kyle Whittingham personifies steadiness, and he's turned Utah into the best program in the Pac 12. The Utes have won the last two Pac 12 title games and have played for the title in four of the past five seasons, with the lone exception being the Covid-19 season. While everyone is talking about Lincoln Riley and USC, the reality is Utah beat the Trojans twice last season, including a 47-24 beatdown of the Trojans in the Pac 12 title game. 

My biggest knock on Utah is their lack of success out of conference. Utah has gone 0-4 in bowl games during this stretch, and it's one thing people could use to rightfully knock him down the list a bit.

FUTURE

Utah kept its staff in tact and just brought in its best recruiting class in some time. Things are certainly trending in a good direction for the Utes, and if they can upgrade their quarterback play they could make a jump. USC is ascending and we'll see if Dan Lanning can build on a strong start at Oregon. Many will argue they should be ahead of Utah, but the reality is Utah is 5-1 against those two teams the last two seasons, and three of those wins were by at least 23 points. As long as Whittingham is in charge the Utes will be a factor in the Pac 12.

9. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

Record: 50-15 (.769 win percentage)
Playoff Appearances: 2 (0-2 record)

PAST

If we were basing this record just on the last five years the Sooners should be higher on the list. Oklahoma is one of just seven teams with multiple playoff appearances in the last five years, the Sooners have won three Big 12 titles and they have put a lot of players into the NFL. Oklahoma struggled with a 6-7 record a season ago, which knocks them down a peg. The good news is their last four losses were all by three points. 

FUTURE

This is where you could make a case that Oklahoma should drop out of the Top 10. Riley is the one who had all the success, and Brent Venables went 6-7 during his first season in Norman. Oklahoma lost four of their last five games, and suffered defeats at the hands of Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, West Virginia and Texas Tech. The 49-0 loss to Texas was a pure embarrassment. I'm leaving them in for now due to Oklahoma having a lot of success on the recruiting trail, and they've done well in the portal. If Venables doesn't bounce back with a 10+ win season they are out of this list a year from now.

8. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

Record: 42-19 (.689 win percentage)
Playoff Appearances: None

PAST

Penn State needs another strong season like it did in 2022 if it wants to stay on this list. The Nittany Lions are a media darling because people seem to be in love with James Franklin, but in the last five seasons Penn State has just two 10+ win seasons. It's like everyone forgot about the 11-11 record they had in 2020-21. Penn State does have a Rose Bowl win over Utah and a Cotton Bowl win over Memphis, so they have some big bowl game victories. 

The counter is that Penn State is 5-10 in games against Ohio State (0-5), Michigan (2-3) and Michigan State (3-2). They have also dropped two straight games to Iowa (2020, 2021). Penn State's two 11-win seasons are why they are on this list, but if they don't repeat it they don't belong, especially considering how soft their non-conference schedule is most seasons.

FUTURE

Penn State has always recruited well under Franklin, so his team will be very talented moving forward. I also have them on this list because I'm a big fan of Drew Allar's potential, and they've recruited good weapons around him and have upped their offensive line recruiting in recent seasons. If Allar can get settled in the Nittany Lions could be potent. He doesn't have to do it all by himself, because the backfield - which is led by star Nicholas Singleton - will be the focal point of the opposition the next two seasons.

7. LSU TIGERS

Record: 46-19 (.708 win percentage)
Playoff Appearances: 1 (2-0 record, 2019 national champs)

PAST

I realize LSU had two really bad seasons (11-11) in 2020-21, but so did Penn State, so I'm not sure why the Nittany Lions should be on the list and LSU shouldn't. LSU went 11-11 against a much tougher schedule, and the 10-4 record this past season was a get-right campaign for the Tigers. LSU has a better record than Penn State the last five seasons, they have a national title, they have played in the SEC title game twice and the coach that ran them into the ground isn't there anymore. The argument to keep LSU out, to me, just isn't compelling. Now, if Ed Orgeron was still around then sure, drop them out, but Brian Kelly quickly removed the stain that his predecessor left behind.

FUTURE

Much has been made about LSU's first class under Brian Kelly, but the reality is LSU has always recruited that way. The 2019-21 classes were all ranked in the Top 5, and Louisiana is a state loaded with talented players. I've made my opinion about Kelly's ability to win a title very clear, I don't think he will. But Kelly certainly has established a reputation for building quality programs, and he should be able to continue that in Baton Rouge.

6. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

Record: 46-14 (.767 win percentage)
Playoff Appearances: 2 (0-2 record)

PAST

Outside of the disaster season of 2020, Michigan has been a solid program under Harbaugh, and they took a leap the last two seasons. Michigan followed up its 2-4 campaign in 2020 with back-to-back playoff appearances and a 25-3 record the last two seasons. Michigan has also defeated Ohio State in each of the last two seasons, which is huge for the program. Michigan has pumped out a lot of NFL players during Harbaugh's tenure as well, so they have certainly had talent over the last five seasons. 

FUTURE

Projecting Michigan's future is where I drop them down compared to others. The only way to have Michigan in the top three is if you ignore what happened around the 2021-22 seasons, and ignore their inconsistent recruiting. Recruiting is trending in a better direction, especially in the 2024 class, but the Wolverines have to show me they can win outside of the conference and build on what they've done the last two seasons. If Michigan can win 10+ games again this season I'll move them up the list.

5. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

Record: 53-11 (.828 win percentage)
Playoff Appearances: 2 (0-2 record)

PAST

Non-Notre Dame fans - and even a few unnecessarily negative Notre Dame fans - love to complain about how overrated the Fighting Irish program is. Here are the facts, Notre Dame ranks 5th in wins and win percentage the last five seasons, and despite what I would characterize as shoddy recruiting rankings for several top Notre Dame recruits, the Irish are tied for ninth in recruiting points per season on the 247Sports composite rankings the last five years. Notre Dame is also a team with two playoff appearances and they are 2-1 against Clemson in their last three meetings, including a 35-14 win last season. 

Notre Dame is also 10-5 against USC (6-3), Michigan (2-2) and LSU (2-0) in the last decade. Notre Dame's problem is they haven't been able to beat the Alabama's, Georgia's and Ohio State's of the world, which is why those programs rank ahead of the Irish. Complain all you want about Notre Dame, but the facts speak for themselves.

FUTURE

The counter argument is that Notre Dame doesn't have Kelly anymore, and Kelly is the coach responsible for building them up. That's mostly true, but the reality is Notre Dame's two best recruiting classes in the last decade happened after Marcus Freeman arrived on campus. For those who say Notre Dame doesn't recruit well enough, consider that Notre Dame, Ohio State and Alabama are the only three teams to rank in the Top 5 in blue chip ratio since Freeman arrived. Freeman has to show that he can coach, but Notre Dame finished his first season with a 6-1 record, which included a 35-14 beat down of Clemson.

I'd say things are certainly trending in the right direction.

4. CLEMSON TIGERS

Record: 60-9 (.870 win percentage)
Playoff Appearances: 3 (3-2 record, 2018 national champs)

PAST

Clemson is tied for third in wins over the last five seasons and has made three playoff appearances. The Tigers also have a national championship, a national runner-up and four ACC championships in the last five seasons. Yes, Clemson has taken a step back, but their version of "falling off" is going 21-6 the last two seasons. There are a lot of programs that would die to have back-to-back 10-win seasons be considered their "down seasons." Clemson isn't what they were a couple of seasons ago when they were competing with Alabama for the No. 1 spot, but a 60-9 record, three playoff appearances and a national championship still have them absolutely in the Top 4, and a case could be made they could be ahead of Ohio State.

FUTURE

I don't have Clemson ahead of Ohio State anymore because I'm not as sold on the current coaching staff, especially defensively. Hiring Garrett Riley this offseason was a strong move, and Clemson has one of the better young quarterbacks in the game. If they don't rebound in 2023 they will fall back even more, but the Tigers haven't done anything to fall lower than fourth in my rankings. 

3. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

Record: 55-7 (.887 win percentage)
Playoff Appearances: 3 (1-3 record)

PAST

Ohio State's "down season" in the last five years is their 11-2 campaign in 2021, which ended with a Rose Bowl victory. That's pretty good, wouldn't you say? Ohio State is consistently in the top five recruiting and their roster is consistently loaded. No, they haven't beaten Michigan the last two seasons, but they did dominate the Wolverines in 2018 and 2019. They also took Georgia down to the wire in the playoff this past season and destroyed Clemson in the 2020 playoff. You could argue that not winning the Big Ten in two of the last five seasons is a reason to drop them lower, and I'd grant you that. But the overall success on the field and on the recruiting trail has the Buckeyes in my top three programs.

FUTURE

Ohio State has shown the ability to lose great quarterbacks and replace them with other great quarterbacks. Their offensive skill is as good as any team in the country, if not better, and hiring Jim Knowles has the defense headed in a better direction. Ohio State needs to get back to beating Michigan, and if it does they'll be back in the playoff. When OSU gets to the postseason they are dangerous, as they showed against Georgia this past season.

2. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

Record: 62-7 (.899 win percentage)
Playoff Appearances: 3 (4-2 record, 2020 national champs)

PAST

Alabama has missed the playoff in two of the last four years, which is why they are no longer number one. Alabama's one title in the last five seasons is also the fewest of Nick Saban's career. You know what? Every program not named Georgia would LOVE to have the same "dip" that Alabama has experienced the last five years. The Crimson Tide still have the most wins of any program the last five years, they are tied with Georgia for the most playoff wins and the Tide consistently recruit top classes every year. There is no doubt that Alabama is still one of the nation's best programs, and Georgia is the only team with a claim to being ahead of Alabama. 

A case could still be made that Alabama should be No. 1 when you consider their overall record and the fact they are 3-1 against Georgia in the last five years. Georgia's two titles and most recent victory are reasons I have Alabama No. 2.

FUTURE

Alabama landed a loaded recruiting class in 2023 and they are going to continue putting tremendous talent on the football field. Saban needed to shake up his coaching staff and he did so, bringing in Tommy Rees and Kevin Steele as his coordinators. I get the Rees move, but the Steele hire could be what allows teams below Alabama to catch up to them. I also have question marks about Alabama's quarterback situation moving forward, which could require the Tide to go back to being more of a power team than they've been in recent seasons.

1. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

Record: 60-8 (.882 win percentage)
Playoff Appearances: 2 (4-0 record, 2021 and 2022 national champs)

PAST

Kirby Smart has out-Alabama'd the Tide the last two seasons. Saban went away from the dominant defense and efficient, ball control offense that won him five national titles in order to bring in a high-octane offense. Smart stuck with what worked so well for him while he was the DC at Alabama, and he's built dominant defenses and very efficient offenses. The result is a 60-8 record, back-to-back national titles and wins in the Peach Bowl (2), Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl during the last five seasons. Georgia has also recruited at an elite level in recent seasons. There is no doubt that Georgia is red hot right now and they aren't showing signs of slowing down.

FUTURE

Georgia is trending upward in almost every way you can evaluate a program. They have shown the ability to lose big time players and replace them with new stars. They've shown they can win without an elite quarterback. They've shown they can beat the other big boys, with Georgia being the only team to beat Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Notre Dame in the last five years. If I had to point out a concern it would be the recent promotion of Mike Bobo to offensive coordinator. If I'm right about Bobo it could cause the Bulldogs to take a small dip backwards offensively. If I'm wrong then Georgia will continue to be moving forward what Alabama was when Smart was still there.