Dave Feit: Not Yet - Nebraska’s Breakthrough Win Remains Elusive

The Michigan game was a weird one. You could argue Nebraska should have won (or at least gotten to overtime). You could argue Nebraska should have lost by two or three scores. I see kernels of truth in both statements. I feel safe in saying the 2024 Huskers lose this game 38-14 (notably, missing all their field goal attempts).

But ultimately, the loss is the only thing that really matters. And with an extra week to potentially stew in it, putting things in a proper perspective is the best path forward.

I know that our current culture expects everything to be ready for us whenever we want it. Apps will deliver the world - or a burrito - to your doorstep. Patience is overrated. Waiting is for suckers, especially when other teams have seemingly figured out to how to pay for priority shipping, express lane service.

Big-picture growth - even in a loss - is there if you choose to see it. Make no mistake: I'm not attempting to mold a moral victory out of what Nebraska dropped on the Memorial Stadium turf Saturday. This was a disappointing, eye-opening loss. And yet, Nebraska is closer to their "breakthrough" moment than they have been in a decade.

Sadly, just not yet.

I believe "not yet" is the key thing to remember. There are eight more games on the schedule. Based on what we've seen so far, the Huskers will get at least two more chances in November for that signature, breakthrough win. 

Until then, Nebraska needs to continue taking the smaller steps. Beat the teams they should beat. Win the 50/50 toss-up games. Win on the road. Handle their business. November is where this team will ultimately be judged, but October provides an opportunity to continue moving forward.

Things I believe

This game was lost at the line of scrimmage.

On offense, Dylan Raiola was sacked seven times and pressured most of the day. Even if we ignore the yards lost to sacks, the Huskers failed to rush for 100 yards.

On defense, the front often failed to get a push, or keep the linebackers free to make plays. Michigan was able to run at will.

In the big picture, Nebraska has done a nice job upgrading their talent in the trenches via the portal and developing the guys they've recruited out of high school.

But this game was a stark reminder of the talent gap that exists between the top tier of teams and everybody else.

Michigan had better athletes up front on both sides of the ball. They were noticeably bigger, faster and stronger. The recruiting rankings bear this out. Michigan's last five classes averaged 12th best in the nation. Nebraska's averaged 25th. That is typically the difference between a day two draft pick and an undrafted free agent.

At a school like Nebraska, getting exposed at the line of scrimmage is a tough pill to swallow. It cannot become a recurring theme.

Clock management continues to be a mixed bag.

I'll admit it - I thought Nebraska screwed up their clock management at the end of the first half. The Huskers had first-and-10 near midfield, but Raiola was sacked, losing nine yards. Nebraska called timeout, which I thought was smart. Regroup and work your way into field goal range.

But the next two plays - both runs by Emmett Johnson - gained a total of eight yards. More surprisingly, Nebraska called its two remaining timeouts after each run. Instead of trying to get close enough for a field goal attempt, Nebraska launched a Hail Mary with one second on the clock. Amazingly, it worked.*

*As we'll talk about below, this is a perfect example of how the way we view some decisions is deeply influenced by the outcome. The Hail Mary worked, so it was is viewed positively.

Early in the fourth quarter, Michigan was driving. After the 10th play of the drive (a 19-yard gain on third-and-10), Nebraska called timeout. It's hard to say what impact that timeout had. Nebraska gave up another 36 yards on the drive, but did hold Michigan to a field goal.

Regardless, at the end of the game when Nebraska needed to stop the clock - and the Wolverines – it would have been nice to have all three timeouts. NU's inability to stop Michigan's running game ultimately made this a moot point, but I'd like to see better decision making with how Nebraska controls the game.

Nebraska did not lose because Matt Rhule went to the Bud Crawford fight.

It has been a rough few months for Matt Rhule's vocal critics. They didn't like the national interviews he did over the summer. They wish he wasn't a regular guest on Pat McAfee’s show. They detest the idea that he is doing a podcast during the season. And they certainly didn't like that - immediately after beating Houston Christian and with a huge game against a ranked opponent on deck - he hopped on a private jet to watch Bud Crawford fight in Las Vegas.

These fans - and trust me, they absolutely exist - want Rhule to stop making himself the focal point. They would prefer he shut up and win games, you know, like Tom Osborne and Frank Solich used to do.

But much to their chagrin, Nebraska was winning. They beat Boston College in the bowl game. Took care of Cincinnati, and blew out two inferior opponents. It's hard to be too critical of the head man when the team is winning. They had to lie in waiting.

Saturday's game was their first opportunity to speak out. "Maybe Nebraska would have won if Rhule wasn't so busy with his podcast." "Instead of going to Vegas, how about figuring out a way to pick up a blitz?" And so on. It's an endless series of false equivalencies and hot takes because they don't like - or can't understand - how Rhule is promoting his program.

But here's the thing: I'm guessing that if you slipped Rhule some truth serum, he'd acknowledge that NU lacks the talent of the Top 25 teams they're chasing. And while it is easier than ever - or at least legal - to buy roster upgrades, Rhule still has to convince kids to come here. A prospect in the class of 2026 was barely out of diapers the last time Nebraska finished a season ranked in the Top 20 (14th in 2009). Osborne and Solich never had to deal with that.

Being visible, being a salesman, being an advocate for the Nebraska football program is a big part of Rhule's job. He gets it, which is why he can be found in so many places doing just that for a wide variety of audiences (including recruits and their parents). Rhule can't upgrade the 2025 roster anymore, but he can work to make the 2026 team better. That's what he's doing - even if it looks like he's just taking a quick vacation to Vegas or killing time on a pod.

Things I don't know

Should Nebraska have taken the points?

On Nebraska's opening drive, they marched down the field, setting up a first-and-10 at the Michigan 14. Jacory Barney had a seven-yard carry, putting the Huskers three yards away from a first down, and seven from the end zone. After an incomplete pass and a one-yard run, the Huskers had fourth-and-two from the six.

Decision time.

From there, it would be a 23-yard field goal that at least 1,000 people in the stadium could make - including all three of Nebraska's kickers. But if Nebraska went for it and either got the first down or scored the touchdown, they would have early momentum. Matt Rhule chose to go for it. Nebraska failed to pick up the first down and came away empty handed. In a three-point loss, it's easy to circle this moment as why the Huskers lost.

Instead of second-guessing the decision, I'd rather focus on the three play calls one NU got inside the 10. A fade route to Barney, instead of to Dane Key or a taller WR like Quinn Clark. A basic run up the middle that was lucky to gain a yard. And the fourth-down play: a shuttle pass to a tight end coming across the middle of the formation. That play often works with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. It did not work with Raiola and Luke Lindenmeyer. Together, they were not the three best play calls of Dana Holgorsen’s afternoon.

At the end of the day, this is one of those decisions that are ultimately judged based on the outcome. If NU scores a touchdown, it was a brilliant move. If the field goal is shanked (or Nebraska loses by four points), then they should have gone for it. Nebraska didn't take the points and lost by three. Therefore, it will be remembered as a bad decision – even if I didn’t mind the “if we die, we die” attitude in the moment.

Is the run defense as bad as we think it is?

At first glance, the numbers from Saturday (286 yards rushing, three touchdowns, and a whopping 8.7 yards per carry) are abysmal.

But was it really THAT bad?

Michigan had three long touchdown runs of 37, 75 and 54 yards. I'll acknowledge the fallacy of this exercise up front, but will still note that if we set those three long runs off to the side, the Wolverines had 30 carries for 120 yards (4.0 per carry). That's a manageable number.

Of course, we can't ignore the explosive running plays. They happened, and were ultimately the difference in the game. I'm not enough of an X's and O's guy to definitively state if those were fixable busts or symptomatic of larger issues. I will note that if Michigan wanted to, quarterback Bryce Underwood could have ruan for 100 yards Saturday. He is a dynamic runner and often had open field in front of him if he had chosen to keep the ball on UM's read option.

Nebraska's pass defense is excellent, but if the Blackshirts can't stop the run, it doesn't really matter.

Should we be worried about Nebraska's - and Matt Rhule's - failures against ranked teams?

As you likely know, Nebraska is winless in its last 29 games against ranked teams, dating back to the 2016 Oregon game. Rhule has not defeated a ranked team in 18 tries since leaving Temple.

As a lover of "last time X happened" stats, I find these numbers amazing - and alarming.

But the truth is they're just numbers. They tell history, but do not predict the future.

Sure, Nebraska's 29-game winless streak against ranked opponents certainly tells a story. It's a sad tale of poor coaching, teams lacking in talent, and getting to face Ohio State seven times in nine years. But other than the helmets, the 56-10 loss to Michigan in 2018 has absolutely nothing in common with the 30-27 loss to the Wolverines on Saturday, nor with any of NU's four other losses to a ranked Michigan team in since 2016. One result did not predict the others.

I feel the same way about Rhule's record against ranked opponents since leaving Temple. He's primarily known as a rebuilding coach, so it stands to reason that a coach of a team in rebuilding mode is not going to going to knock off an Oklahoma team that made the four-team playoff.

By that same token, I'm not terribly concerned that Rhule is now 0-7 against ranked teams as Nebraska's coach. Did anybody seriously expect a first-year coach (cleaning up the mess that Scott Frost left behind) would upset the eventual national champions in 2023?

Obviously, the 0-fer streaks will continue to be noteworthy until Nebraska breaks through. I'm just not going to get too worked up about it. For my money, Nebraska (and Rhule) are currently 0-1 against ranked teams. Not ideal, but not horrible.

Huskerigami Update

A “Huskerigami” is a final score combination (win or lose) that has never happened in the 130-plus year history of Nebraska football.

Final score: 30-27

Is that a Huskerigami? No. It has happened once before. The first time was a 2012 win over Wisconsin.

5 Things I loved

1. Halftime Hail Mary. My buddy and I started an early walk to the restrooms but paused by the tunnel to watch the final play. Raiola rolled out and launched a 52-yard bomb that was caught by Jacory Barney for a much-needed touchdown. There is something magical about a play so wondrously unexpected that you end up hugging complete strangers. It’s the first time that’s happened since Armstrong to Westerkamp.
2. Dylan Raiola. When he's not immediately forced to scramble, he's proven that he can find open receivers and complete throws. If we want to nitpick, I'll concede that he could have thrown the ball away on a couple of his sacks, but will note that he avoided several others. Bottom line: He did everything he could to keep Nebraska in the game.
3. Jacory Barney, Jr. His efforts on the Hail Mary - both the catch and getting over the goal line - are enough to earn a spot on this list. But he had another strong day with six catches for 120 yards and 2 TDs. He's a punt return touchdown waiting to happen.
4. Archie Wilson. The freshman punter was a huge weapon in the field position battle, punting four times for a 49.2-yard average. It's worth noting that there was very little breeze Saturday, so that's not a wind-aided number. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: When the defense is in "bend but don't break" mode, putting as many yards between the opponent and the end zone is critical. The young Aussie did his job.
5. Luke Lindenmeyer. The big tight end had a team-high seven catches Saturday. For perspective, the school record for receptions in a game by a tight end is eight (Matt Herian in 2004 and Dennis Morrison in 1966). Through four games, Lindenmeyer has 16 catches, putting him on track to break the single-season mark for catches by a TE (38 by Austin Allen in 2021).

Honorable mention: Javin Wright, Elijah Jeudy, Dasan McCullough, Bud Crawford, Vincent Shavers Jr., the 1995 Huskers, Rex Guthrie, one of the lowest pregame flyovers I can remember, Kyle Cunanan, Emmett Johnson, NU's pass defense.

5 Areas for improvement

1. Pass blocking. It was obvious early on that Nebraska's tackles - especially on the left side - were going to have a very long day. Here's my question: Was NU not used to seeing anybody with that amount of speed and power? And if not, what does that say about the Husker pass rush?
2. Run blocking. On Nebraska's first drive, the Huskers had three carries of seven yards or more. In the rest of the game, Nebraska had two carries of seven yards or more. The inability of Nebraska to establish a ground game made it easier for the Wolverines to pressure Raiola.
3. Run defense. It is hard to win when you allow over 275 yards rushing. Just ask the majority of the teams Nebraska played between 1978 and 2001.
4. Red zone offense. The good news is Nebraska has scored on 16 of its 20 trips into the red zone. The bad news is the Huskers' red zone efficiency is tied for 88th in the nation (alongside Louisiana, TCU, Troy and Virginia Tech).
5. Overly emotional fans. As a friendly reminder - if you predicted Nebraska would go 8-4 this season (a very popular pick), that means you believe the Huskers will lose three of their final eight games. As I wrote about in August, we the fans needs to be better at not overreacting to losses. There were a lot of dramatic, embarrassing takes being thrown around after the game.